WASHINGTON WANTS TO ENLIST ANKARA'S SUPPORT

On 7-8 December, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a visit to the United States, which attracted the attention of the world community, and especially of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Iran. This is not surprising, since Turkey's economic and political weight is growing and there are many pressing problems in the region. In matters such as the Iranian nuclear programme, the unresolved Karabakh conflict, the situation in Iraq and others, a lot depends on Ankara's position and the configuration of its strategic partnership with the United States. The growing role of this country in the international arena is proved by the fact that, after traditional visits to Canada or Mexico, Barack Obama paid his first foreign visit to Turkey.

The Turkish prime minister was accompanied in Washington by Ministers of State Ali Babacan and Egemen Bagis, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and other officials. The central event of the visit was the meeting between Prime Minister Erdogan and President Obama, which lasted almost two hours, i.e. considerably longer than originally planned. The leaders of the United States and Turkey informed the media about their talks at a meeting with reporters accredited at the White House.

As expected, the crisis over Iran's nuclear programme took centre stage during the talks between Washington and Ankara. Prime Minister Erdogan noted that possibilities of diplomacy to resolve this matter of great concern in the world had not been exhausted, and in this regard, he added that "Turkey can play the role of a negotiator or mediator." In turn, President Obama expressed his belief that "Turkey will be able to put Iran on the right track." But Tehran quickly made it clear that it did not need anyone's mediation services. "We do not need help from other countries to explain our views," said the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ramin Mehmanparast. So in reality, the exchange of views between Washington and Ankara over the Islamic Republic of Iran only revealed that the USA cannot rely on Turkey not only in a hypothetical military action against the Islamic Republic, but even in expanding and tightening the existing regime of sanctions. Analysts do not rule out that Turkey may abstain from voting on a new resolution against Iran if it is put to a vote at the UN Security Council.

And it's not only that the government in Ankara, formed by the Islamist AKP, does not feel alienation towards the Iranian mullahcracy. There are pragmatic Turkish national interests that outweigh any considerations of an ideological nature. During a visit to Tehran in late October, Prime Minister Erdogan signed a memorandum of understanding on oil and gas with Iran. By 2015, Ankara and Tehran are planning to produce 35 billion cubic metres of gas per year from the South Pars field which has giant reserves estimated at 14 trillion cubic metres. Half of the gas to be extracted at the field - 17.5 billion cubic metres - will be exported to Turkey.

These plans clearly do not suit Washington, which was recently explicitly stated by US Special Envoy on Eurasian Energy Richard Morningstar. However, Turkey continues to lobby for this project, indirectly linking it with the implementation of the Nabucco gas pipeline. Speaking at a press conference, Erdogan said that many people mistakenly believe that the bulk of the gas for this project will come from Azerbaijan: "Actually, it is not true. Now Azerbaijan is expected to provide 10 per cent of the gas, and this figure is projected to reach 25 per cent in the future." In fact, it was a response to those who connect the delay in Nabucco to Azerbaijani-Turkish disputes over the price of gas and transit tariffs. Erdogan pointed out that there is not enough gas to fill the pipeline, and thus, if Turkey gets it as a share for financing and developing the Iranian deposit, this could be a chance to save this project nurtured by the US and the EU.

Ankara's firm stance on the uselessness of the sanctions and the unacceptability of military strikes on Iran by Israel and the US is extremely important for Azerbaijan. To some extent, this allows Baku to resist pressure from forces seeking to use the territory of our country for a possible attack on Iran. In addition, Azerbaijan itself is going to diversify the routes of gas supplies, intending to use a dormant pipeline to Iran for this purpose.

On the issue of Afghanistan, Ankara has also taken a special position. On the eve of his visit to the US, Turkey's presence in the country boosted to 1,700 people. However, Erdogan said that Turks are not going to fight the Taleban or become "gendarmes" in Afghanistan, but want to help the Afghans to form their own armed forces capable of ensuring peace and security in the country.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan most closely monitored what the Ankara-Washington talks directly or indirectly said about Armenian-Turkish relations and the Karabakh conflict. Barack Obama congratulated Erdogan on his efforts aimed at normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations. In turn, the Turkish prime minister urged the US president to stimulate the work of the OSCE Minsk Group. Thus, the Armenians' expectation that the US president would put pressure on Erdogan in order to expedite the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols was not realized.

Moreover, by reminding Obama of the need to strengthen the activities of the Minsk Group, Erdogan once again demonstrated that Ankara links the normalization of relations with Yerevan to progress on the Karabakh settlement. Speaking at the John Hopkins University on the second day of his visit to Washington, Prime Minister Erdogan said that Armenia's withdrawal from the seven districts surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh would contribute to the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations. He also said that he informed President Obama about Azerbaijan's point of view.

Thus, the Turkish leader demonstrated the strength of his previous promises given to Azerbaijan and Turkey on this issue. Erdogan showed that his words express a principled position, not a desire to neutralize negative public reaction. As a result, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) was forced to admit through clenched teeth that Turkey succeeded in pushing its preconditions for the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

Among other issues discussed during Erdogan's visit to the US (the process of Turkey's integration into the European Union, the Cyprus and Palestinian problems), the situation in Iraq and Kurdish terrorism took a special place. Apparently, the situation is getting worse in this direction. Recently, PKK terrorists in Tokat Province in eastern Turkey fired at an army patrol, killing at least seven soldiers. It is possible that the attack was in response to a special operation carried out by the security forces in a district of Istanbul, which resulted in the arrest of 10 PKK supporters. At the same time, the Constitutional Court of Turkey, based on a report by the Prosecutor's Office, examined the issue of prohibiting, or rather, dissolving the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party. In Diyarbakir, supporters of the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is serving a life sentence, staged riots to suppress which the police had to use tear gas and rubber bullets.

All these interrelated developments do not bode well for Washington. It has been unable to secure peace in Iraq so far - terrorist bombings with dozens or even hundreds of victims occur there weekly. Rival Iraqi groups continue their bloody struggle and cannot agree on elections, which had to be postponed again, this time till next spring. Meanwhile, according to President Obama's obligations, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq will begin in 2010. In many respects, Turkey, the only NATO ally of Washington which directly borders on the region, will have to maintain at least a semblance of stability in Iraq and protect the interests of the United States and the West. However, within Iraq itself, the Americans see the Kurds as their main supporters. So, if in the short-term it proves impossible to neutralize PKK terrorists and establish constructive interaction between Ankara and the administration of the Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq, the two US allies may engage in a bloody armed confrontation. It is possible that with such a development of events, Ankara will prefer to oppose the Kurds together with Iran and Syria, which will scupper Washington's plans in Iraq and in the Middle East at large. So it is necessary to end all flirtations with the PKK and Kurdish iridentism and take a consistent and principled position on this issue. Otherwise, the US and the West may face a negative scenario in this region.

In conclusion, we can say that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington demonstrated once again that Turkey is aware of its strength and is becoming more confident and independent. Staying an ally of the US, Turkey did not agree to be in the vanguard of American global policy as an obedient junior partner. Ankara explicitly declares its own vision of the situation and processes in the world, and warns that those who are not ready or willing to take its interests into account, and especially those who are willing to act contrary to them, should not and cannot count on Turkey's support.