"CHIMERICA" OR "TWO GREATS"?

The international media continue to discuss the results of Barack Obama's Asian tour.  As a child, the US president lived in Indonesia for a few years and, on the "South Asia Streets" he is unhesitatingly recognised as a "local".  He graduated from high school in Hawaii, where the next Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit will be held.  And finally, in Beijing, he met his half-brother.

Large-scale revision

Despite even the North Korea problem, Barack Obama's Asian trip was, from its outset, defined as "economic."  It is thus understandable that the APEC summit became the focus for a large-scale political revision in the world's most promising region.  His itinerary was quite informative:  talks in Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul and, finally, participation in the APEC summit in Singapore.

There is no doubt that the Asian region is incredibly important.  On the eve of the US president's Asian tour, a Christian Science Monitor editorial asked whether or not he would "reset" relations with Asia during his trip.  Despite a multitude of domestic political problems, Obama spared a whole nine days for his trip to Asia.  This is the main indicator of the significance of the region.  "Obama has to urge Asian countries to promote cooperation and to stress that the USA must maintain active involvement in the region.  But, at a time when China is developing its navy, the dollar is weakening and the recession is blunting the appetites of American consumers, China, Japan and India may discern a vacuum of influence and attempt to fill it," the newspaper reports.  And, in this situation, Mr. Obama must assure Asia that the US remains a stabilizing force:  "The three giants in the region won't always make it easy for the US to preserve its leading role. But the more they battle for influence among themselves, the more the US is needed."

Time will tell how successful Obama's Asian tour has been.  Economic agreement between politicians is often not self-evident - neither are the gestures and declarations of intent; they usually mean little.

Before the tour, the media began to use the newly-coined term G2, meaning the "great two" or "two greats."  By "greats" are meant the USA and China - they are the world leaders and have broken away from the rest, because Beijing has finally managed to overtake Tokyo, in the size of its economy, to rank second.  Already by November, the Forbes magazine had assigned first and second places in the ratings of most influential people on the planet to Barack Obama and Chinese leader Hu Jintao.  So most interest during the trip was of course in China.

President's bow

Even before Barack Obama's trip to Japan, Tokyo had promised to allocate $5 billion in aid to Afghanistan.  Against this backdrop, journalists' attempts to draw conclusions from the fact that Obama did not visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the two towns attacked by the USA with nuclear bombs during WWII, or from the traditional demonstrations against the US military presence in Okinawa, were not particularly successful.

Furthermore, Obama's meeting with the Japanese emperor was harshly criticized by the US media for the "adulation" shown by the president.  Journalists wrote that "no president before him had abused customs, traditions and protocol to this extent, to insult the country he represented."  These attacks were triggered by Obama's excessively zealous bow on greeting Emperor Akihito.  It was noted that, in the past, US presidents greeted the emperor by just "shaking hands in a friendly manner, with a slight but respectful nod, and sometimes not even that."  Perhaps Obama's decision to follow the Japanese tradition in greeting the emperor was merely a desire to stress his respect for his hosts and avoid any indication of superiority.

The President's visit to South Korea also attracted reserved comment - there were no sensational breakthroughs in addressing the North Korean nuclear crisis.  Washington continues to place emphasis on diplomacy, while making it clear that it will not desert its ally, South Korea, in the face of danger.

And as for the summit in Singapore, Obama was late, as commentators were quick to report.  Nonetheless, a declaration was signed following the forum of 21 leaders of member countries and regions of APEC, in which the participants included their main agreements:  to stimulate economies until economic recovery is sustainable, to develop a new growth paradigm, prevent protectionism, reject new barriers for investment and to keep markets open.  The region's countries depend greatly on foreign trade - this is true for both tiny Singapore and giant China - this is precisely why "barrier-free" foreign economic relations are so important.

Chinese internet

However, the main leg of the journey was still China, where the US president clearly had many things to discuss.  As some analysts say, China is transforming into a "production facility" of sorts for the US economy.  Many US brands are moving some of their production to China, where labour is effectively free.  Of course, high technology there is not on a par with Japan's, or even South Korea's, but China is quite capable of simple operations like sewing clothes or "screw driver assembly."

As a result, the US trade deficit with China is more than $22 billion - mainly because of the "unfair" exchange rate of the yuan.  Russian analysts say, however, that the US federal budget deficit in the fiscal year 2008-2009 reached $1.417 trillion and exceeded last year's figure more than threefold.  This is 10% of the country's GDP.

One way or another, Obama directly suggested to Hu Jintao the creation of a G2, a "duo" of China and the USA.  In Central Asia, discussions have already coined the term "Chimerica," a composite of China and America.  China, in the mean time, insists on the abolition of "protectionism" - which will further extend its presence in the US market.  And the initiative to create the "great two" did not impress Beijing.  Hu Jintao said that his country has enough problems of its own.

However, commentators are convinced that the most intriguing talks took place behind closed doors.  Obama stressed that both sides would need to look for compromise.  Commenting on the talks in Beijing, Euronews discussed the "Chinese economic miracle" in detail.  And "Euro-commentators" maintain that, against this economic backdrop, issues of democracy and human rights are bound to have less prominence.

First reports seemed to confirm this thesis.  Chinese dissidents were displeased by how weakly Obama stressed the violations of human rights which traditionally occupy a key position in bilateral relations between Beijing and Washington.  Furthermore, the US president did not meet any human rights activists in China, although such contacts had been on the itinerary.  Commentators also noted that, before his visit to China, Obama did not meet with the exiled Dalai Lama.

At the same time, Obama did not avoid "sensitive issues" in his speech.  "I'm a big supporter of non-censorship.  This is part of the tradition of the United States that I have discussed before, and I recognize that different countries have different traditions.  I can tell you that in the United States, the fact that we have free Internet - or unrestricted Internet access - is a source of strength, and I think it should be encouraged."  A question about internet censorship in the PRC was asked of the US president during a meeting with youth in Shanghai.  The Chinese authorities are heavily criticised for their policy of internet censorship, which, in the West and first and foremost in the United States, is seen as a violation of human rights and privacy rights.  However, this passage was broadcast on only one TV channel, Shanghai TV, and web sites which published his speech soon removed the US leader's words.

The Western media which covered the tour noted the US president's unwillingness to focus on censorship in the PRC.  However, as Associated Press reported, even the statements he did make turned out to be too much for the Chinese media.  The People's Daily newspaper only reported that Obama noted the special role of the Internet in disseminating information, omitting the words about censorship.  A full transcript of the press conference in the Chinese language was uploaded to Xinhua, the site of the state information agency, but navigation around the web site was organized in such a way as to make finding the passage on censorship very difficult.  The US Administration's web site has full audio and video versions of the news briefing in Shanghai, but Chinese users have no access to this web site.

Lessons of Varyag

Some analysts warn, however, that it is premature to consider China an accomplished superpower.  Not to mention the fact that, sooner or later, the restrictive political regime will begin to hinder the current rapid growth of the economy.  In addition, the main political rival of the United States in the region is still Russia, especially after Moscow's promises to stage a new "Pacific breakthrough."  In addition, Moscow will host the APEC summit in Vladivostok, where large-scale renovation projects were launched in preparation for the event.

Of course, the summit was, among other things, a good diplomatic arena for yet another meeting between Obama and Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.  Many issues of mutual interest were discussed during the talks - from strategic offensive arms to the situation in Iran.  At the same time, commentators noted an important detail:  before going to Singapore, Medvedev did not undertake an impressive tour of the region with its "constellation of dragons," colossal economic prospects and so forth.  And the visit to the Varyag aircraft-carrying cruiser willy-nilly achieved a different symbolism than its organizers intended.  It is no secret that the cruiser bears the name of the one which was sunk in Chemulpo Bay at the start of the Russo-Japanese war, which ended in the Tsushima disaster.  And that war started because of the unwillingness, or rather, inability, of Nikolai II to talk to "some Japs" and his confidence that Moscow could change the world "through the strength of Russian arms and the valour of the Russian soldier."