VICTORY OF COMMON SENSE?

Armenia has marked the anniversary of the tragic events of 1 March 2008. Seven years ago, on 19 February, a presidential election accompanied by falsification and open pressure on voters and opposition activists was held here: observers from opposition parties, including women, were beaten up and dragged by the hair right at the polling stations. When the Armenian Central Election Commission announced the victory of Serzh Sargsyan with a small margin, events began to develop dramatically. On the evening of 20 February, supporters of Ter-Petrosyan organized an impressive rally at the Theatre Square in Yerevan, determined to repeat the scenario of the first "orange revolution" in Ukraine and get new elections. And initially, the protesters seemed to succeed. The speakers assured the audience that they were able to achieve a breakthrough, the victory was not far off and the regime was "close to surrender", while the police did not even attempt to arrest Nikol Pashinyan, who was on the wanted list, while he was addressing the rally. But on the night of 1 March, the authorities launched an offensive. The protesters faced not the police, but army commandos called from Karabakh. The square, where there were less than 10,000 protesters, was "mopped up" fast and hard. But after a few hours, a rally broke out again - at the crossroads next to the buildings of several embassies. Here the "scenario" was even tougher - with sharpened rods, a burned police vehicle, looting in shops and finally shooting to kill. Eight people were killed and two more died in hospital later. At least 200 people were injured. Over the seven years that have passed since those events, their investigation led to no sensible results.

The Armenian National Congress and its allies hold rallies in memory of the 1 March victims annually. And this time, in his speech, the first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, urged the audience to proclaim 1 March as a day of remembrance for the victims of the tragedy and national protest against state terror and pressure.

"Even after 1,000 years, when the culprits are punished, we will gather here at Freedom Square. Forgetting simply means forgiving, and as is well known, forgotten crimes generate new crimes," the ANC leader concluded.

At the same time, more attention was attracted by another statement of Ter-Petrosyan. Armenia's first president again sharply criticized the "All-Armenian Declaration" recently adopted in Yerevan in honour of the approaching centenary of the "Armenian genocide". According to him, this document will have grave consequences for Armenia. He noted that the declaration lays the issue of putting forward demands with all the known elements at the foundation of foreign policy. It is recognition and condemnation of the "Armenian genocide" by Turkey, compensation for material and moral damages to the successors of Armenians who lived in 1915 in the Ottoman Empire, the restoration of rights to private and community (church) property, as well as the expansion of the territory of Armenia within the framework of the Treaty of Sevres and the borders drawn by US President Woodrow Wilson. Ter-Petrosyan said: "I think it is easy to predict what consequences this sharp turn may cause. The declaration will lead us, if not to catastrophic, then at least to serious problems in relations with the outside world, creating some obstacles in the process of the Karabakh conflict settlement and Armenian-Turkish relations. There are also fears that due to this poorly calculated document, Armenia will not only fail to win the favour of the international community, but will also lose even assistance from friendly countries." Ter-Petrosyan also recalled that he "thought it possible to solve the Karabakh issue through natural compromises in the peace negotiations", "consistently pursued the aim to normalize Armenian-Turkish relations" and asserted and still assets that "without Armenian-Turkish relations and the settlement of the Karabakh problem, Armenia has no prospects for economic development and secure existence in a region full of complexities".

There is no doubt about fairness of the warnings made by Levon Ter-Petrosyan. In addition, this is not the first time that Armenia's first president has made such statements. It was he who delivered his famous open letter "War or Peace? Time to Take Stock" in 1997, where he openly called for mutually acceptable compromises with Azerbaijan for the first time, warning that the further alignment of forces in the region will not change in favour of Armenia. And he warned that "as long as there is Karabakh, Armenia will not live well". And it was because of this position that Levon Ter-Petrosyan was toppled from his post as president of Armenia as a result of a "creeping coup" in spring 1998.

And this is not the first time that Armenia's first president has criticized the "All-Armenian Declara-tion". Back in mid-February, he wrote an article in which has cited many shortcomings of this document. First of all, as Levon Hakopovich is convinced, the state commission for the coordination of events dedicated to the centenary of the "Armenian genocide", which adopted the document, is simply not authorized to "express the united will of the Armenian people," as the text of the declaration states. Acknowledge-ments to countries and organizations that recognized the events of 1915 as "genocide", according to Ter-Petrosyan, are "open provincialism that puts the Armenian people in a humiliating position". At the same time, he said, "the appeal in the same paragraph of the Declaration to the Republic of Turkey to recognize and condemn the 'Armenian genocide' implemented by the Ottoman Empire, face its own history in memory of the victims of this terrible crime against humanity and abandon the policy of falsifying, belittling and denying irrefutable facts is absolutely absurd and frivolous". What is this if not an ultimatum to Turkey, besides that, a defective one, because the necessary component is missing here: what awaits the recipient, if the demand is not fulfilled? It is amazing how this negligence penetrated such an important document, which the "All-Armenian Declaration on the centenary of the 'Armenian genocide'" should be.

Armenia usually blames its economic woes on the "blockade", but tries not to notice the fact that this same "blockade" is a direct consequence of the policy of Yerevan itself. Now experts warn that the continued occupation of Azerbaijani lands threatens not only with economic losses. It is also the risk of a new war, which, even if it is a "copy" of the hostilities of the first half of the 1990s, is likely to be that of the winter of 1994, when Horadiz was liberated from Armenian occupation. Territorial claims always carry the risk of a real war - and now not only with Azerbaijan, but also with Turkey, which is a member of NATO and has the second largest army in Europe after Russia and the second largest in NATO after the United States. In short, there is no doubt that the first president of Armenia is right.

However, it should be noted that in Armenia today, he is practically the only politician who represents the "party of peace". Moreover, contrary to logic, his statement did not even cause the expected public debate. Apparently, it is not easy for the opponents of Levon Ter-Petrosyan to find worthy counter-arguments. But agreeing with him is too dangerous in today's Armenia. Yerevan chose not to notice the warnings of the first president. This means that the victory of common sense in Armenia is still too far away.