POLITICAL "VIRUS"

Who would believe that the main actor in the next presidential race in Ukraine would not be Yuliya Timoshenko, not Viktor Yushchenko, not Viktor Yanukovich and not even the voter who is against all candidates (Vasiliy Protivvsekh)?  Swine flu has left them all far behind.

Silver lining...

When the dust settles, the outbreak of flu in Ukraine will probably have every right to claim a place in the Guinness Book of Records as the most politicized epidemic in the history of mankind.  This is precisely what they have been saying for a long time about the spread of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, which President Viktor Yushchenko has called a "threat to national security."  And because this problem rivets the attention of the Ukrainian public, for obvious reasons, it is not surprising that politicians wishing to score electoral points begin to "exploit" the illness.  They apparently believe that visiting areas of the country where the largest number people are infected is an effective campaign tactic.  But it is not very clear what exactly the politicians can do about the epidemic when they arrive with their "retainers" and TV crews.

However, there is another version - that fears about swine flu were deliberately "stoked" within the Ukrainian population...  Some of the mass media have already cited rumours that if the heinous epidemic runs out of control, a state of emergency will be declared in the country, and the presidential election will be postponed from January to late May 2010.  None other but Igor Popov, head of the Ukrainian president's secretariat, said that this was a possibility.  "The flu epidemic has radically changed the course of the election campaign in Ukraine.  Agenda priorities have changed, plans for propaganda campaigns have been thwarted and electoral headquarters are urgently revising methods of promoting their candidates."  However, Popov categorically rejected the idea that the epidemic was of an artificial nature.

According to various Ukrainian media, which incidentally sometimes issue quite contradictory reports, fatalities from the Influenza A/H1N1 virus in Ukraine already amount to almost 200.  And the total number of infected persons since the outset of the epidemic has exceeded 1 million.  Quarantine has been declared in many regions of Ukraine (especially in the west of the country) because of the flu - educational and preschool institutions have been closed, events have been cancelled.  But, as the saying goes, there is a silver lining too.  It turns out that swine flu provides wonderful examples proving the inability of this or that presidential candidate to care about or serve the people.  And what could be worse for the approval rating of a politician who wants to stand at the helm of the nation?

For example, on 4 November, Yushchenko filed a request to the General Prosecutor's Office to initiate criminal proceedings against the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc for rallying on 24 October in Independence Square in Kiev "during the flu epidemic."  The president set 20 October as the starting date of the epidemic, when schools were placed under quarantine in Ternopol.  Because residents of provinces already affected by the epidemic arrived to take part in Tymoshenko's rally, Yushchenko argues that "government officials who stopped at nothing to gain political advantage and satisfy their political ambitions" must be punished for the risks to which they exposed the residents of Kiev.  To sound even more convincing, the president resorted to strong and dramatic language when he compared the rally of Tymoshenko's supporters to the Mayday demonstrations in Kiev in 1986 immediately after the Chernobyl disaster.

Yushchenko also promised to veto the law allocating 1 billion hryvnya to combat the flu epidemic in the country.  In the president's opinion, Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko's insistence on the allocation of these funds will result in a devaluation of the national currency.

For his part, another candidate for presidency, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, announced after his trip to "ground zero" that the "entire burden of battling with the disease is shouldered by the local authorities, doctors and the sick themselves," whereas the central authorities "only make loud statements."

In the mean time, the Regions Party decided to distinguish itself by handing out individual protective items which they had "bought with their own money" to children, doctors and the poor.  If, in the absence of an epidemic, the "regionals" had started to hand out presents to the needy, this would have been called bribing the voters, but now this move by Yanukovych's party is both helpful to people and wins sympathy for the party leader in return.

In short, in their medical fervour, Ukrainian politicians have reached such a pitch that Ukrainian Health Minister Vasiliy Knyazevich urged them to "refrain from increasing tensions in the country, creating panic or disseminating unprofessional recommendations in the media."

"I ask politicians, even those with a medical education, to refrain from comment and giving advice from the TV screens on the Influenza A/H1N1 epidemic.  After all, political rhetoric on a medical issue makes journalists come to the Health Ministry for comments.  This, in turn, forces us to waste valuable time in refuting nonsense and explaining highly specialized medical issues.  Politicians, everyone should attend to his own business!  Please save doctors' valuable time, they are busy saving the lives of our compatriots," Knyazevich implored.

True to traditions

In the mean time, the other problem in pre-election Ukraine is the now-traditional, natural gas-related controversy with Russia.  The latest spike of political activity here started when, on 30 October, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reminded Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko during a phone conversation of Kiev's obligation to pay for gas.

It is notable that, during the conversation, Tymoshenko complained to him about Yushchenko , who apparently "hinders normal cooperation between the Central Bank and the Ukrainian Government and blocks the transfers of funds."  Yushchenko's secretariat reacted by stating that the prime minister "criticizes the president for his refusal to print more money and to pay for gas with freshly printed notes."  Yuschenko, however, "has always refused and will refuse" to make that choice, so he suggests that the Government finds a different way of paying.

Next day, Putin decided to warn European partners about possible problems with the transit of gas via Ukraine.  At the same time, he urged the EU to provide financial assistance to Kiev.  "Let Europe provide assistance in the form of credits.  We have already paid $2.5 billion, let them come up with at least $1 billion."

However, the idea of "a billion" did not delight Brussels.  On 5 November, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso asked Yushchenko to take all possible measures to make certain that no obstacles arise when the Ukrainian side pays for gas supplies from Russia, although he made no mention of the money.  "European citizens must not suffer from new glitches in the delivery of Russian gas via Ukraine," Barroso stressed.  After all, memories of January 2009, when gas from Russia did not arrive for two weeks, are still fresh in Europe's memory and, as luck would have it, this coincided with very cold weather in the EU countries suffering from irregular supplies of gas...

For her part, Maud Olofsson, Minister for Energy and Enterprise of EU president Sweden, said that it is not an obligation of the EU to issue loans to Ukraine to pay for gas supplies.  Olofsson added that the issue of supplies is a subject for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine.

The gas issue has long become a trump card in the political battles between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.  For example, the president believes that gas contracts signed by Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko on 19 January 2009 in Moscow are against Ukraine's national interests and must be revised:  "These agreements make us a colony, not only from the energy point of view, but also economically and politically."  Yushchenko's representative for international and energy security issues, Bogdan Sokolovskiy, said earlier that Naftogaz had sent Gazprom proposals to change the gas contracts because, if they remain in their current form, Ukraine will not be able to guarantee uninterrupted transit of Russian Gas to Europe in the next season, 2010-2011."

Putin, in the mean time, has no doubts about the correctness of the decisions made.  "If Ukraine does not pay for gas consumption, they will not get any gas.  If they do not get gas, they will most probably take it from the pipeline.  As soon as they take gas from the pipeline, we will stop supplying it," the Russian prime minister said at a press conference following talks with the Austrian federal chancellor.  The curious thing here was that the Russian prime minister said he was certain that Kiev had the financial wherewithal to pay for Russian gas:  "The International Monetary Fund confirmed this.  The problem is that, in addition to everything else, this is part of the presidential campaign and, as you know, the prime minister and the president are in rival electoral camps.  They have their political interests.  But in my view, we all must achieve the fulfilment of obligations, including the obligation to transit gas to European countries, without interfering in domestic political processes."  A clear and concise statement, is it not?

A "battle"?

For now, however, the election is scheduled for 17 January 2010, and the first phase of preparations - the compilation of the list of candidates for the Ukrainian presidency - was completed on time and in accordance with the law on 6 November.  Among those with the best chances of replacing Viktor Yushchenko as president (to all appearances, he is unlikely to win for a third time), are incumbent Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko, Regions Party leader Viktor Yanukovych and former Supreme Rada speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Lawer Oleg Ryabokon, Civil Position leader and former defence minister Anatoliy Gritsenko, Supreme Rada Speaker Vladimir Litvin, Communist Party leader Petr Simonenko, former head of the Ukrainian National Bank Sergiy Tigipko, Ukrainian People's Party leader Yuriy Kostenko, Freedom Association leader Oleg Tyagnybok, Socialist Party leader Aleksandr Moroz, citizen Vasiliy Protivvsekh and others have decided to run.  The Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission also refused to register several candidates.

Opinion polls show that besides Yushchenko, Vladimir Litvin and Petr Simonenko also have little chance - some 4% of voters support them.  The outsider in the polls is Sergiy Tigipko, for whom less than 1% of Ukrainians are ready to vote.

Every candidate speaks about his ideas for establishing order and stability in Ukraine and many, apparently adopting Western campaigning methods, use lines which advertise their religious belief.  Their reasoning is correct:  how can a person who says that in his affairs and decisions he will adhere to God-given rules, be bad?  And this also wins additional voters.

For example, Tymoshenko said that Ukraine "needs a dictatorship of law and order, order and rules which are based on the true commandments of God"...  Viktor Yanukovych also rushed to display his belief by beginning his campaign with the words "With God - to victory!"

The leader of the Regions Party is currently seen as one of the favourites in the presidential race, although his campaign slogans are nothing new:  he plans to achieve equal status for the Russian and Ukrainian languages (a promise to Russian-speaking voters in the east of Ukraine), maintain the neutral status of Ukraine, and find a key to the Russian gas problem.

However, Yanukovych is quite pragmatic about the gas issue:  "If we talk about how I plan to revise these relations, I can tell you that today, we must take the entire sheaf of problems which we have experienced for the last five years in relations between Russia and Ukraine.  When we discuss all these issues, I think we will find the key to mutually acceptable solutions in the gas sector."

Yuliya Tymoshenko also promised to abolish Ukraine's dependence on natural gas and, by using the huge coal resources "effectively", finally win energy independence for the country.  The "great troop of miners" will develop the coal deposits.  The Ukrainian prime minister also promised the territories and regions in which alternative energy sources will be used, a special preferential system for the manufacture of export goods and that a programme of energy-saving measures will be carried out.  Of course, these are grand plans, but they are somewhat fuzzy...

Tymoshenko's approval rating improved after the president of neighbouring Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, praised the Ukrainian prime minister for her courage before a recent visit to Kiev:  "You have had very difficult times, when the poor woman had so many problems - she fights alone there, among men.  I cannot congratulate you on what is going on, so I simply wish you to emerge from this battle safe and sound"...

Arseniy Yatsenyuk talks a lot about ideology and his plans to create a situation in which "Ukrainians feel they are human beings, not some kind of creature."  As for his opponents, this politician is certain that they are trying their best to "distract people from the scandal which involves the rape of children by representatives of Tymoshenko's bloc, the scandal involving murder by a member of parliament from the same political group, and from the situation surrounding natural gas."  In Yatsenyuk's words, the Regions Party and the Tymoshenko Bloc have powerful groups in Rada, although they are "both the same and own all the private state powers in Ukraine today."  As for Viktor Yushchenko himself, in the words of Head of the Presidential Secretariat Vera Ulyanchenko, he is running again only because in this way he would like to "consolidate the results he has achieved in the post of president in 2005-2010."  However, only 4-8% of citizens are willing to support the president...  But the president keeps fighting, campaigning and stressing that under any other president, Ukraine might lose its independence.

Yushchenko does not count

Of course, the gas issue is very closely related to relations between Moscow and Kiev and Russia's influence on Ukrainian politicians.  And although the passions are not flying as high as at the dawn of the Orange revolution, Moscow simply cannot by definition observe the Ukrainian election with disinterest.

Judging by recent events, which we have no need to reiterate here, Moscow has chosen to ignore Yushchenko totally - for Moscow, he is already history, Russia cannot, and does not ,want to talk to him.  The Kremlin wants a politician in power in Ukraine who would guarantee that Russia's interests will be preserved and strengthened.  So the game continues.

Of course, the game is also driven by various radical theories, like the one that Moscow, if push comes to shove, could trigger a process to separate Ukraine into two parts, or initiate a debate on the ownership of the Crimean Peninsula.

No one denies that there is the potential for all the above problems to arise. One would simply have thought that less attention to these problems would be better, because the media sometimes play an important role in stoking up passions.  Russia is unlikely to play such a radical scenario in Ukraine.  And the international community would not allow it to.

The only conclusion to be drawn from this is that while Yushchenko is likely to continue upon his "orange" course, the new Ukrainian president is likely to maintain relations with Moscow on a more "colour-free" basis.  And it can be said of Tymoshenko that she has already succeeded on this path - the complaint about Yushchenko in her conversation with Putin about gas should suffice...  In addition, a meeting should take place between the two prime ministers in the near future, in which Tymoshenko might go even further.

That's the thing...

In the mean time, the best illustration of the upcoming Ukrainian elections is the registration as a candidate for the country's top political office of the head of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce of the Ivano-Frankovsk region, or, as people now calls him, Citizen Vasiliy Protivvshekh.  Vasiliy's new surname, until recently it was Gumenyuk, means "Against everyone."

The citizen's plan is both simple and subtle, because, according to the opinion polls, record numbers of Ukrainians plan precisely to vote against all the candidates on 17 January.  Posters have even appeared in Ukrainian cities with such slogans.

More than 25% of voters are still undecided about whom they will vote for, especially in the runoff, which is expected in February.  The media also report that activists of the Black Committee movement tried to register a "Thing" as a candidate. They could not find a person with this name, so they went to the Central Electoral Commission with a doll.  However, the local police prevented the registration of such a "serious" rival to Tymoshenko and Yanukovych.  But seriously, the election campaign only proves once again that practically nothing has changed in Ukraine since the era of rallies in Maydan, whether in terms of foreign political preferences (pro-Western or pro-Russian policy) or in terms of social or economic policy.  However, it has to be said that the West is not now so elated about "orange" Ukraine, and at least the heat of tension between the USA and Russia has decreased somewhat since Barack Obama's coming to power.  Ukraine's domestic problem is that the politicians need to finally find a way to work together efficiently.  Their struggle has become so dragged out and has so bored everyone, not only Ukrainians, that it is no longer even interesting.

All commentators put Yanu-kovych and Tymoshenko at the top of the list of likely winners.  They will most probably be the main rivals (unless some other scenario unfolds, such as cancellation of the election or sudden hikes in Yatsenyuk's approval ratings).  They have the best chances also because all other candidates for president will have to reckon with the largest parliamentary groupings.