FOOTBALL CALENDAR: PLAYING TO SURVIVE

No matter how strongly they assert that the process of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement will have a positive effect on the settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the developments of the past month indicate just the opposite. 

Following the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, Armenia, which had already driven itself into isolation, was deprived of its last overland link with the outside world. The Armenian economy neared the brink of complete collapse and looking to Russia became fruitless. Moscow made it clear to Yerevan that it had no intention of reconciliation with Georgia, even for the sake of its outpost in the region. 

Almost all analysts concurred that this is what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meant when he suggested, after the closure of the Russia-Georgia border, that Yerevan take account of reality and normalize relations with its neighbours. But while relations remained strained and the borders remained closed, the Armenian leadership had to begin wandering the world with outstretched hands. As evidence, it is enough to read the headline on a news report about Sargsyan's latest visit to Russia, posted on the Armenia Today website, which says "Serzh Sargsyan and Bako Saakyan head to Moscow to raise money."

Even the Armenian media have noted that in his speech at a charity dinner in Moscow, the Armenian leader could not restrain an outburst of emotion and seized the opportunity to gather another donation of alms.

"I encourage you to be generously involved in this fundraiser, an inherent trait of our benefactors and sponsors since ancient times. So, let's be worthy of their sacred cause," said Sargsyan, who resembled a casino or auction host rather more than the president of an independent state. Sargsyan is also asking the United States for money - of course, this is not done directly, but through the voices of "Armenia's friends" in the US Congress. In late October, the congressional group supporting Armenia urged the Senate to provide the country with aid worth $48 million in 2010 and military assistance worth $3.5 million; $10 million of assistance to Upper Garabagh was also proposed.

According to Congressmen, this aid package will "at least partly compensate the damage, worth about $680 million, inflicted on Armenia in the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia war."

Due to the deplorable economic situation in Armenia, Sargsyan is having to plead for help from not only his countrymen, the U.S. and Russia, but also - no matter how odd this sounds - from Azerbaijan. Exactly a year ago, the Armenian leader admitted: "I have suggested to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, as a demonstration of Azerbaijans' interest in the well-being of Garabagh and a safe life, that Azerbaijan invest there. Perhaps then Garabagh Armenians will favour living within Azerbaijan."

Hints about economic assistance were also heard during a recent meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian parliamentary delegations in Moscow. The Armenian side suggested the creation of a free economic zone on the border. But, in fact, Armenia realizes all too well that so long as Azerbaijani territories remain under occupation, cooperation between the two countries is out of the question. 

This state of things certainly prompted Yerevan to be relatively realistic on settlement of the Garabagh conflict. This was emphasized by President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting with Turkish parliamentary members in Baku. But the situation began to change as Armenian-Turkish relations warmed up; according to Russia's ambassador to Turkey, Vladimir Ivanovski, this was "actually facilitated by Russia."

Naturally, Moscow could not leave its outpost to the mercy of fate. So, it had two options - Azerbaijan or Turkey. But, in order to normalize ties between Baku and Yerevan, it is necessary to end the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. Moscow prefers not to pressure Yerevan on this issue. Besides, much time is required to settle the conflict. Thus, given the situation Armenia was in, urgent action was needed, so the Turkey option was chosen.

"In September last year, after the well-known developments in Georgia, I noted while in the Turkish foreign ministry that it was a very suitable time to mend relations between the two countries," admitted the Russian ambassador in Ankara. 

By stating this, the diplomat, in fact, confirmed that it was the Russia-Georgia war that had given impetus to "soccer diplomacy." At a critical time for Armenia, Sargsyan had to phone President Gul, and the soccer schedule turned out to be very useful.

A year later, the world witnessed the first results of this "soccer diplomacy", with Russia again playing a major role. 

"We all know what an important role Sergei Lavrov played in the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich on October 10," said Ivanovski, indirectly confirming reports about the well-known note handed by Lavrov to his Armenian counterpart which said "Edward! Agree to the ceremony without any statements!"

Analysts say that the Armenian side could not but agree, because within the current realities it was its only chance to salvage a country stranded in isolation. But once Turkey stepped forward, Yerevan's position on the Garabagh issue began to toughen. Let's refer to several facts to support this assertion. 

First, it was no accident that the Azerbaijani president deemed it necessary to warn, immediately after the Chisinau round of talks on Garabagh conflict resolution, that Armenia, inspired by the normalizing of relations with Turkey, was beginning to change its tone in the peace talks. It is notable that the Chisinau meeting took place on the eve of the signing of Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich. 

Second, in Chisinau, Sargsyan for some reason unexpectedly decided to re-open issues that had long been agreed. 

Third, Sargsyan even began denying the main subject of years-long negotiations. "We have never discussed the issue of vacating territories with the Azerbaijani president," he claimed. This raises questions as to why the Armenian leader needed to meet with President Aliyev seven times if Azerbaijan and the world community were not demanding the liberation of the occupied territories and this issue was not the subject of negotiation.

Fourthly, hot on the heels of the protocol signing, Armenia decided to stage large-scale military exercises in the occupied Azerbaijani territories, and Sargsyan personally attended those drills.

Finally, after the drills Sargsyan headed to Moscow, including Bako Saakyan, leader of the Garabagh separatists, in his delegation. During his visit to the capital of a country co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group, Sargsyan called the occupied Azerbaijani town of Shusha an ancient town of so-called "Eastern Armenia." Thus, he once again publicly asserted not the self-determination of the "Garabagh people", but the fact of Armenian occupation. 

In addition, Bako Saakyan stated that a number of so-called ministries and government agencies of "the Upper Garabagh Republic" are expected to be relocated to Shusha.

Thus, it is evident that Yerevan is acting in contradiction to the spirit of constructive dialogue. Will this be taken into consideration by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and the Turkish government?