NEGOTIATIONS ARE OVER, QUESTIONS REMAIN

The world media are sure to pick over the outcome of the Geneva talks on Iran for a long time. It emerged that Tehran had agreed to have Iranian uranium enriched in Russia and spent nuclear fuel disposed of in France. In addition, the Iranians agreed to allow UN inspectors into its second nuclear plant in Qom, whose existence was only admitted recently.

Most experts interpreted this as a significant breakthrough. EU High Commissioner for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana expressed hope that the negotiations had launched a new intensive process of collaboration. The next meeting will discuss proposals from the parties to resolve this issue, as well as "any global problems" which the participants would like to address.

Solana stressed that the current round was successful largely due to the full involvement of the United States - for the first time in all the years of negotiation. The fact is that, within the framework of the six-party talks, US Under Secretary of State William Burns met the Iranian representative, Sa'id Jalili. This was the first diplomatic contact between the two countries since the break in relations between Washington and Tehran 30 years ago. US media have already described the meeting as a "landmark" in bilateral relations.

The head of the Iranian delegation, Sa'id Jalili, said at the talks that Tehran does not intend to give up its right to develop its own nuclear programme, but added that Iran is ready to discuss economic and political cooperation and is open to negotiations on issues of global security, in particular nuclear disarmament. Iran proposed raising the dialogue with the "six" to summit level.

In addition, an official representative of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Agency's Director General, Mohamed El-Baradei, plans to visit Iran.

According to The Guardian, the agreements reached during the negotiations between the Iranian delegation and representatives of the "six" in Geneva can be seen as the most significant success in more than three years. The newspaper notes that we may now hope that the "nuclear crisis" can be settled, at least for a while.

Of course, we might attribute Iran's U-turn to a number of different factors. Perhaps the crucial element was Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's statement that "sometimes sanctions are essential". In Iran, many experts believe, these words were interpreted correctly: Moscow was ready to reconsider its relations with Tehran and toughen its position. The negotiations took place shortly after the US decided against deploying a third missile defence GMD in Europe, preferring the Aegis sea-based system. Despite repeated explanations, i.e. denials by the White House and the Kremlin, most observers assumed some kind of political "bargaining" between Moscow and Washington whereby, in exchange for the Americans' retreat from missile defence, Russia undertook to meet the US halfway in the Iranian issue. 

However, many analysts sounded a note of caution. There have been many "breakthroughs" in the Iranian epic, and they have often proved fruitless as the progress achieved simply lost its value in the endless bargaining over details, they said. Thus, the plant to which Iran invited inspectors with a sweep of the arm, may well be "a pacifier".

"The second uranium enrichment plant, which is being built in the city of Qom in Iran, has no equipment related to nuclear production yet," Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said, or rather let slip, at a press conference at the United Nations. "There are no centrifuges, there is no other equipment, there is no technology for nuclear development, there is nothing there," news agencies quoted him as saying.

Although Obama said the fundamental agreements reached with Iran in Geneva were a step forward, John Bolton, the former US representative to the UN, told the The Wall Street Journal that the results of the meeting were another victory for Tehran.

"The words 'fundamental agreement' are the most unreliable in the diplomatic lexicon," Bolton warned.

Asked after the Geneva talks whether low-enriched uranium will be shipped to Russia, the ambassador of the Islamic Republic in London, said: "No! This has not yet been discussed." In addition, Iran will send its "observers" to Russian uranium enrichment plants, and who knows if they will acquire new technology there. Finally, the new agreement will legitimize that same low-enriched Iranian uranium which will now be enriched in Russia. According to Bolton, the amount of low-enriched uranium produced in the Islamic Republic in recent years is in itself a violation of Resolution 1696 and, given Tehran's reputation, it is not known if the declared amount of low-enriched uranium will tally with the real amount. As a result, in supporting the use of illegitimately enriched uranium, Obama contradicts his own statements that Tehran must honour its "international obligations".

Furthermore, said Bolton, the US president declared that international observers would be admitted to the nuclear facility near the city of Qom in two weeks, but a spokesman for the White House explained later that no specific date had been set yet. "Washington has once again plunged into the chaos of negotiations with the Islamic Republic, which gives it precious time to develop its nuclear programme. We are now even further from the elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat than we were before Geneva," the experienced diplomat concluded.

Europe and the United States do not trust Russia, where Iranian uranium will be enriched. For example, while Russia was preparing to calculate its profit from the processing of Iranian uranium, The Times reported another Russo-Iranian scandal. According to this newspaper, during his mysterious visit to Moscow in September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the Kremlin a list of Russian scientists who, according to Israel, are helping Iran to develop a nuclear warhead.

"We heard that Netanyahu came with a list and specific evidence demonstrating that the Russians are helping the Iranians develop the bomb," a source close to the Russian defence minister told The Times. "So the visit was kept secret. The point is not to put Moscow in an awkward position, but to encourage it to act."

US and British officials said that the participation of Russian freelance scientists in the Iranian programme was a thing of the past, the newspaper continues. However, more than a year ago the IAEA expressed concern over the actions of Russian specialists working without the approval of the Russian authorities. "Israeli officials insist that Russia's scientists can work in Iran only with official approval," - said The Times. Against this background, Iran's consent to enriching its uranium in Russia is open to different interpretation.

Either way, while some analysts talked enthusiastically about a breakthrough in Geneva, others spoke about "a military option". "War with Iran is now inevitable," believes Jeffrey T. Kuhner, a Washington Times columnist and president of the Edmund Burke Institute. "The only question is: will this happen sooner or later? The recent missile launches and war games in Iran suggest that the apocalyptic-minded mullahs have come to the same conclusion." 

Now, notes the writer, Iranian Shahab-3 and Sijjil medium-range missiles are capable of striking targets throughout the Middle East, including Israel, as well as some parts of Europe. Tehran is gradually expanding its regional sphere of influence by supporting insurgents in Iraq and movements such as Hamas and Hezbollah, by turning Syria into its "political vassal", by creating an alliance with Hugo Chavez and by clinching a deal to purchase air defence systems from Russia.

Soon after the talks in Geneva, Warsaw received new proposals on missile defence from Washington, said Poland's Deputy Minister of National Defence, Stanislaw Komorowski, after his return from Washington.

According to him, instead of deploying a base with 10 interceptor missiles in Poland, as planned earlier, Warsaw has been requested to host logistics bases and command posts for SM-3 missiles. The Polish-US talks which will be held in two weeks' time will also discuss the possibility of providing Poland with Patriot air defence missiles with combat warheads rather than with training warheads as the Americans had suggested earlier.

Also, according to many experts, the latest developments around Iran played an important role in the US decision to deploy Patriot missiles in Poland - above all, this was the consequence of Tehran's testing of its own series of missiles, many of which are capable of reaching Eastern Europe.