MISSILES, CENTRIFUGES AND "HAWKS"

The situation surrounding Iran is taking a critical turn. Reports of short-range missile launches (Fateh, Tondar and Zilzal) conducted by that country and the testing of ballistic missiles such as Shahab-3 and Sijjil, capable of hitting US military bases in the region and Israeli territory, created further doubts in the minds of the global community about the peaceful aspirations of the Tehran regime. Tehran's demonstration of its power should be seen as a response to powers which are strongly committed to halting its nuclear programme.

In late September, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling on signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to comply fully with their obligations. The preamble to the resolution refers to previous decisions of the Security Council on Iran and North Korea, including sanctions imposed on those countries in connection with the development of their nuclear programmes. But a far more impressive warning to Tehran followed negotiations between the leaders of the United States and Russia on the sidelines of the 64th session of the UN General Assembly. Russian president Dmitriy Medvedev, in fact, agreed with US President Barack Obama on the need to tighten sanctions against Iran if the latter does not provide sufficient evidence of the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme. The reason behind the Russian leader's agreement with his US counterpart is not of particular significance in this context, although there is a clear correlation between Medvedev's tough stance on Iran and Washington's decision to forego a third positional area for its missile defence system near Russian borders in Eastern Europe.

Tehran's response to the US-Russia warning was a surprise to Obama, Medvedev and other world leaders who had gathered at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh. Tehran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the existence of a second uranium enrichment plant. The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of the Islamic Republic, Ali Akbar Salehi, said that "Iranian scientists have created a new generation of centrifuges, which are currently undergoing technical tests". Nothing was reported on the whereabouts of the plant or the number of centrifuges installed there, but information was soon circulating in the international media that this referred to a uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom, where it is planned to establish 3,000 new-type gas centrifuges. With the ensuing missile tests, Tehran merely confirmed that it will not make any concessions on the nuclear issue, despite the threats from the great powers to tighten sanctions.

For the West (and, as it became clear during the Obama-Medvedev meeting, not only for the West) the Iranians' actions are a further challenge. The world has little doubt that Tehran is close to the stage of uranium enrichment which will allow it to make several nuclear explosive devices within a year. It is especially concerned as Tehran has Shahab-3 missiles, which could be used as a means of delivering nuclear weapons. It seems that talks between Iran and the international "six" will undoubtedly adopt a much more principled and open nature than they did before Iran admitted the existence of a second uranium enrichment plant. It is no accident that Barack Obama, who has been restrained on the prospects of a military scenario, expressed such an possibility for the first time, although the US administration is aware that any military action against Iran, in the words of Pentagon chief Robert Gates, "will only help buy time and delay the implementation of Tehran's nuclear programme for a period of one to three years" until "the leadership of the Islamic Republic returns to the implementation of its plans". Western experts fear that Iran is likely to have nuclear facilities on which there is no intelligence yet, not to mention the strong defences of the objects already known to the IAEA.

Iran has started a very risky game, the economic and military consequences of which may result in its citizens posing a very logical question in the future: was the game worth the candle? Tehran's behaviour, in fact, provokes concrete action to curb its nuclear programme, and not only through international negotiations. "Hawks" in Israel are already counting the reasons justifying a pre-emptive strike on a country that threatens to wipe the Jewish state off the face of the earth. Defence Minister Ehud Barak said that Israel does not rule out any scenario, including a military strike against Iran.

It turns out that the two countries, which have historical roots going back to the first emergence of Middle Eastern, and indeed human, civilization, have left the region and the world facing the threat of a major war. Preventing such a lethal prospect will become a priority for world politics in the near future.