HALF WAY

It is said that history reveals the true value of a great event - after many years have passed. We can say, without exaggeration, that the international oil contract with 10 companies from 6 countries, which was signed 15 years ago, was of crucial importance to the young Azerbaijan. It's not that the contract was unusually productive, and not even that this first agreement led, as expected, to the conclusion of other oil and gas contracts.

20 September 1994 was the starting point for the modern economic development of Azerbaijan - not even the slightest achievement observed in the country today, not to mention the statistics demonstrating our regional leadership, would have been possible without the courageous challenge that the then President of Azerbaijan and national leader, Heydar Aliyev, made to the whole world community. The large investment in oil was seen as a confirmation of political stability and an insurance policy for foreign investment in other sectors of the economy.

This was a challenge, and not everyone believed in the success of this undertaking at the time. But, after some 10-15 years, Azerbaijan was dubbed one of the main sources of energy supplies to Europe, which means that there will be stiff competition between the world's leading countries for the oil and gas extracted from the depths of the Caspian Sea.

Would it have been possible for us to do without such a massive contract and produce the oil by ourselves? Today it is obvious that that was not possible. Yes, thanks to the oil contracts, the power of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan has increased greatly, and it has moved from being a borrower into an influential investor. But we should admit that independent extraction from the deeper part of the Caspian was impossible at that time.

"Look around..."

The "Contract of the Century" was designed to last 30 years, that is, we are half way through. And the actual results of its implementation are more than impressive. According to a BP report, "On sustainable development in Azerbaijan", the total volume of investment in projects to develop Azari-Ciraq-Gunasli and Sah Daniz (Stage-1), as well as the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and South Caucasus pipeline routes, amounts to about 28 billion dollars since the start of implementation!

From 2004 to 2008 alone, the total volume of investment in the Azari-Ciraq-Gunasli and Sah Daniz projects and the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and South Caucasus pipeline routes was approximately 23.2 billion dollars, of which capital investment amounted to 20.8 billion and operating costs - 2.4 billion dollars.

We have a developed infrastructure and have upgraded four installations. One of them is the Dada Qorqud, whose modernization cost foreign companies about 70 million dollars, while the reconstruction of another facility - the Istiqlal (previously called Kaspmorneft) - cost about 200 million dollars. The latter is named after Heydar Aliyev, is the most modern and can drill in even the deepest part of the Caspian Sea - 1,200 metres - reaching depths of almost 10 km.

According to Minister of Industry and Energy Natiq Aliyev, "the capital investment which has been made cannot be taken away or destroyed, it will stay in Azerbaijan. Perhaps we will say goodbye to BP and thank them for their work, but the pipeline, platforms, underground storage facilities, drilling rigs and our huge terminal will remain. There is no similar terminal in the former Soviet Union and it is one of the best in the world."

"To date, the Oil Fund has received more than 25 billion dollars in revenues from the sale of oil and gas, including from the 'Contract of the Century'. This is a lot of money. Just a few years ago, Azerbaijan's GDP was 20-25 billion dollars. It is estimated that the Oil Fund alone will receive about 200 billion dollars, but I think that we will get more. This is a pessimistic assessment by BP," said Aliyev.

What has this money done for Azerbaijan? Suffice to say that the republic has gold and currency reserves, an enhanced defence capacity and an upgraded fleet. A country that until recently depended on concessional loans from international financial institutions now manages quite easily without them, it implements large-scale infrastructure and social projects, regularly raises wages, pensions and allowances etc. Thanks to money from the State Oil Fund, temporary camps for refugees and internally displaced persons have been built and the terrible refugee camps have disappeared into oblivion. In addition, President Ilham Aliyev quite recently signed a state programme for the education of young Azerbaijanis in foreign universities. More than 500 of the best-known and most professional universities around the world were selected, and today any Azerbaijani has the opportunity to receive an education in these universities. All their costs are covered by the state from the SOFAR.

Aliyev said that "you can spend hours talking about what the 'Contract of the Century' gave to Azerbaijan, and you can simply say - look around."

The key to the future

All this, while we are only half way through! Only one fifth or one sixth of all reserves has been extracted from the Azari-Ciraq-Gunasli (ACG) block of deposits which are the main subject of the "Contract of the Century". According to SOCAR, 164.2 million tonnes of oil and 37.3 billion cubic metres of associated gas have been extracted from the entire ACG block since the start of development (November 1997), while 13.1 billion cubic metres of gas have been pumped into the layers.

According to BP, in the period up to 1 January 2009, 141.1 million tonnes of oil were produced from ACG. Another 34.6 million tonnes are projected in the current year.

Meanwhile, according to SOCAR, extractable oil reserves in the field are estimated at 923 million tonnes (Interfax-Azerbaijan). "According to the latest assessment of reserves at the ACG contract block, made last year, the primary geological and extractable reserves of oil from these fields at the end of 2008 were estimated at 2.188 billion and 923 million tonnes respectively. Compared with the original 1998 estimates, the assessment of geological oil reserves at ACG has risen by 45.6 per cent, and extractable reserves - by 1.5 times," noted the company.

According to SOCAR, the extractable reserves of associated gas in the block are estimated at 353.756 billion cubic metres, and natural gas reserves at 632.366 billion cubic metres.

"While the whole concept was originally based on the extraction of 511 million tonnes over 30 years, then think how much more oil will remain in the fields, to be extracted by future generations," said Aliyev.

This factor is even more important because, until quite recently, sceptics and spiteful critics gloated with all their might: "In 20 years Azerbaijan will run out of oil, then we will see what becomes of it." Today they have nothing to say: firstly, the capacity of the country's non-oil sector is increasing day by day and, secondly, Azerbaijan's oil will not run out soon.

When the "Contract of the Century" was signed, it provided for oil extraction to the suite break, and everything below this layer was subject to new negotiations. Today we know that below the suite break there are large reserves of natural gas and condensate. They are estimated at hundreds of billions of cubic metres of gas and tens of millions of condensate. And now Azerbaijan has a real chance of achieving more favourable conditions when entering into new deals, to be more discriminating in the selection of companies and the conditions they propose.