ARMENIA IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

Armenia is increasingly concerned about the fate of the negotiations on the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement. In October, the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict on the basis of the Madrid principles will actually enter a crucial phase which will be of no benefit to Yerevan, the Armenian media reports. Another reason for concern, Armenian experts think, is that in September, the UN General Assembly is expected to adopt another resolution on the situation "in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan".

The former foreign minister of Armenia and former Armenian representative to the UN, Aleksandr Arzumanyan, expressed his grave concern about this issue. "A document in which Armenia is presented as an occupying country cannot be of benefit to Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh," he said. According to Arzumanyan, Azerbaijan is currently pursuing a clear policy of voicing favourable definitions from as many rostrums as possible: "It was a deliberate act which Armenian diplomacy should have prevented by an appropriate response, and such activity is the result of poor work by the Armenian side."

The fact that Armenia is losing the negotiations to resolve the conflict was also noted by the leader of the Armenian opposition, ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who arouses particular concern within Armenia's ruling Karabakh clan. He demanded that the authorities reveal the essence of the concessions they will make. "They gave up on the genocide, and will give up Karabakh... It is most likely that they have already given it up," said Ter-Petrosyan in Ijevan. However, Ter-Petrosyan's words do not mean that he sees a way out other than the return of the occupied lands. The ex-president himself was also removed from his throne by the Karabakh clan as he had accepted the proposal of autonomy for Nagornyy Karabakh within Azerbaijan. Levon Ter-Petrosyan is apparently committed to the principle of "fighting fire with fire" and is trying to play the same Karabakh card to extract revenge. He is not even hiding it, declaring that the only way not to lose Karabakh once and for all is to remove the incumbent authorities. "Serzh Sargsyan should leave as soon as possible," he said.

Sargsyan himself is not going to leave, although he understands that, in any case, he will have to do what Ter-Petrosyan was not allowed to do 17 years ago - withdraw from the occupied territories. Realizing that Azerbaijani diplomacy has stormed the citadel of opinion within the international community and that Yerevan is losing the negotiations, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has decided to intimidate the world with his army. "Thanks to the Armenian army, the political leadership of Armenia is participating confidently and honourably in the negotiations on a settlement of the Karabakh conflict," he said at a working meeting with the leadership of the Defence Ministry.

But the fear that Sargsyan wanted to evoke evaporated quickly when the leadership of the Armenian army literally panicked at the sight of planned training flights by Azerbaijani jets along the frontline.

It seems that Armenian society and Sargsyan himself have real reasons for concern. Judging by confident statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the negotiating process is not developing in favour of Armenia. "I can say that our efforts are already yielding first results in the negotiations. Our position at all times has been that this issue can be resolved only within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. People can live in Nagornyy Karabakh with a high status of autonomy within a single Azerbaijani state. These principles are regarded today as the basis. That is, the negotiations are being conducted on the basis of these principles, and any agreement can only be based on these principles," said the Azerbaijani president during an iftar (the evening meal to break the fast for believers) arranged by the head of the Board of Muslims of the Caucasus, Sheikh ul-Islam Allahsukur Pasazada, on the occasion of the holy month of Ramadan.

The president stressed that the conflict can be resolved only in stage-by-stage fashion, and that the proposals on the negotiating table provide for a stage-by-stage solution. "All the occupied districts will be liberated consistently, and our compatriots will return to these districts. The entire infrastructure will be rebuilt there and, at the next stage, the legal status of Nagornyy Karabakh will be defined," said Aliyev. He stressed once again that we are talking about a status within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

It is no accident that the president spoke about the rapid growth of Azerbaijan's international standing and the increasing number of its friends. This factor plays a key role in resolving the conflict peacefully via international mediation. The Wall Street Journal writes that the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is a big risk for a Europe seeking to modify the system of energy supplies from the Caspian basin.

The publication concludes that the role of Turkmenistan in the Nabucco project is too much exaggerated, since the prospects of building a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea are quite hazy. In addition, Ashgabat has bound itself to a 25-year agreement with Russia and is building a major pipeline (with a pumping volume of 40 billion cubic metres) to China.

As a result, notes the newspaper, Azerbaijan is considered by Western countries to be the main supplier of gas for Nabucco. Consequently, Europe is vitally interested in a speedy settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict; this is not to mention the United States and such influential countries in the region as Russia and Turkey.

All these factors fuel defeatist sentiments in Armenian society. One of  Serzh Sargsyan's fellow soldiers in the war of occupation, and the initiator of the Union of Armenian Volunteers, Zhirayr Sefilyan, stated recently: "We (Armenia and the Armenian separatists of Karabakh - R+) persisted in playing a meaningless game called 'two states' and seem to have forgotten that it was just a game."