TEHRAN PUZZLE

Despite widespread opposition protests, which have even caused human casualties, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 52, has been sworn in before parliament as Iranian president. 

The inaugural ceremony was literally watched by the police and special troops, who were guarding the president and the Islamic Republic's supreme clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, against the opposition. Opposition representatives, gathering outside the parliament building at the time Ahmadinejad was taking the oath of office had only one wish - his removal from power. The leaders of the incumbent's political opponents are convinced that Ahmadinejad's victory, with 63 percent of the vote, was in fact gained unfairly; they claim that the June 12 presidential election was rigged. Ahmadinejad's main rival, Iran's former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, delivered a speech to his supporters accusing the authorities of violating the rights of the people and ignoring their will. According to official estimates, 20 people were killed and hundreds of others injured in clashes during mass protests in mid-June, with the opposition claiming that dozens were killed. But Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who, in any case, had the final say on the issue, paid no attention to the allegations, dismissing them as the intrigues of those hostile to the incumbent regime in Iran.

"The June 12 elections were a glorious page in the history of our country. During the voting, the people delivered a courageous response to those who support foreign domination. I am appointing this courageous, intelligent and hard-working man as president," the supreme clerical leader declared solemnly at the inaugural ceremony. 

On August 1, the first court hearing was held on the case of over a hundred opposition activists charged with posing a threat to national security and cooperating with the intelligence agencies of Western countries. Such crimes result in a death sentence in Iran, and anyone who questions the legitimacy of a show-trial can also be arrested.

For instance, Iran's former vice-president, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, has already spoken about some kind of a conspiracy aiming to stage a "velvet revolution" in the country, which was to be fuelled by "false statements about irregularities during the presidential elections." 

Allegedly, influential Iranian statesman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami had agreed to support each other in the post-election period. 

Rafsanjani was quick to refute Abtahi's statement, Khatami termed his remarks as "a show", while the politician's spouse said he had been tortured. This, unfortunately, is not the only source asserting that representatives of the opposition face violence intended to force them to give incriminating testimony.

Thus, former presidential hopeful Karrubi has maintained on his website that some of the detainees are being subjected to rape in jails. As for deaths, the Iranian authorities explain them by infectious diseases and viruses.  

Assessing the Iranian opposition activists' trial, The Washing-ton Post has concluded that "the Iranian regime, whose standing has sustained a major blow, is following the experience of Stalinist Russia: show-trials are being exploited to persecute opponents and intimidate others."

The Iranian authorities have also decided to sue Hossein Rassam, an Iranian employee of the British embassy, French embassy employee Nazak Afshar, who has dual Iranian-French citizenship, and French foreign language teacher, Klotilda Reis, who are accused of espionage and "actions targeting Iran's national security."

Sweden, which currently chairs the European Union, has declared the move to be aimed against the entire EU, which is preparing to toughen its policy on Tehran (by recalling the ambassadors of all 27 member states as well as enforcing new economic sanctions). 

In response, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hasan Qashqavi said that the trial of opposition activists is a matter of his country's internal affairs and has no bearing on Western nations, stressing that Tehran has never interfered with elections in European countries and expects the same attitude from the EU. 

Thus, the Iranian authorities are doing everything in their power to suppress expressions of dissent from the public. On July 31, the police in Iran dispersed a mourning procession marking the 40-day death anniversary of Neda Soltan, who died tragically on June 20 during the disturbances in Tehran. Video footage showing the death of a girl who has become a symbol of the Iranian opposition, has spread around the world. Neda is now deemed an Iranian martyr and is exulted in many clips on Youtube, supplemented by angry comments. It is significant that the website's users and numerous bloggers are very disturbed by the position taken by the U.S. on developments in Iran. And, evidently, to prevent public resentment from boiling into street protests, as was the case in mid-June, Kakhrizak, the warden of an Iranian prison where opposition activists are held, was taken into custody by order of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It cannot be ruled out that the Iranian authorities will now take action on two fronts and opposition leaders - Mousavi, Khatami and Karrubi - will also face arrest. At least, that is what a senior officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Yadollah Javani, is calling for. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has recognized Mahmud Ahmadinejad as Iranian president. 

"This was the decision of the Iranians, they had to pick their leader. Ahmadinejad is the elected president of Iran," said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, but he added that President Barack Obama would not congratulate Ahmadinejad on his re-election. 

France, Germany and Britain have also declined to extend congratulatory messages. 

The point is that some confusion is sensed among Western politicians and observers with regard to Iran: it is clear that dialogue should be continued with Tehran over its nuclear programme, but it is rather unclear now on whom they should place their bets. 

Thus, information has leaked to the press suggesting that there are major differences between President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei, due to the supreme clerical leader's dislike of some of the people in the president's close circle. Many world media outlets highlighted quite an interesting point: during the inauguration, Ahmadinejad moved to kiss the supreme leader's hand, as he did four years ago, but Khamenei moved away from him and only a few minutes later did he allow him to kiss his shoulder…

Thus, many pundits believe that Iran's opposition, despite the reprisals and show-trial of its activists, including quite influential ones, may still have its say. 

As for the actions by the U.S., which has recognized Ahmadinejad, this appears somewhat strange to many. It could be explained either by some deceptive manoeuvring by Washington, or the White House's realization that the crisis over Tehran's nuclear programme has to be resolved, but the country lacks the power to stage a military incursion, in view of the current economic downturn and the increased activity of terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Moreover, Washington is not convinced that it would be able to muster broad international backing for such a move. This being said, there is only option left: to negotiate.  

White House national security adviser James Jones has confirmed in interviews with the Fox and NBC television networks that the US government is ready for interaction with President Ahmadinejad, as he is "an authorized figure we need to deal with."

Meanwhile, more and more facts suggest that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. Iran is said to have completed the research programme to create arms grade uranium as early as in the summer of 2003. The Times has reported intelligence sources as saying that Iranians are only awaiting approval from Ayatollah Khamenei and, once that is granted, it will take half a year to enrich enough uranium and another half a year to assemble a nuclear warhead. 

The U.S. is trying to ratchet up pressure on Iran by strengthening its positions in the Middle East, as well. These endeavours include attempts to improve ties with Syria and to give a new impetus to the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. However, these efforts have largely been to no avail thus far.

All that the White House has guaranteed so far is that, should Iran shun talks, Washington will seek much tougher sanctions against Tehran, with the first steps in this direction expected as early as September. 

But the Iranian regime seemingly has no intention of heeding these warnings and, on the contrary, appears to be trying to exacerbate relations with the U.S. According to the ВВС, the Iranian authorities have confirmed the detention of three US citizens - Shane Bower, a contributing journalist from Minnesota working in the Middle East, his lady friend, Sarah Shurd, and Pennsylvania-born Joshua Fathal, whose father is an Iraqi. The three presumably trespassed across the border by accident. 

Meanwhile, the Israelis are insisting that, if talks fail, they intend to strike against Iran. Could this be Washington's main covert plan on Iran? 

Overall, quite an explosive situation is emerging in the region. According to Israeli intelligence, and agreed by UN experts, the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah, considered to be an ally of Iran, has stores of about 40,000 "ground-to-ground" and "ground-to-air" missiles near the Israeli border and intends to avenge the war fought in the summer of 2006.