SLAVIC "BAZAAR"

Relations between Russia and Ukraine are strained again, and this time, to the limit. Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's message to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Russia's decision to suspend the sending to Kiev of the already appointed ambassador Mikhail Zurabov have created a fundamentally new situation in Russian-Ukrainian relations.

On 11 August, Dmitriy Medvedev sent a message to Viktor Yushchenko where he listed all the resentments of Moscow. The list of claims is headed by the "anti-Russian stance" taken by the Ukrainian leadership during last year's conflict with Georgia. Moreover, Kiev recently stated that it would not allow Russian Black Sea Fleet ships to enter the Sevastopol base in the event of a new conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi. Moscow also sees Ukraine's desire to join NATO as a manifestation of anti-Russian policy.

In addition, Dmitriy Medvedev made it clear that Russia is concerned about the project to reform the Ukrainian gas transport system with the help of the European Union in order to end Gazprom's monopoly on gas transit through Ukraine.

The Kremlin is also concerned about the attitude of the Yushchenko administration to Russian investors, the Russian language and the Orthodox Church. 

Simultaneously, the Russian president clearly outlined his position on the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, expressing the hope that under the new political leadership, relations between the two neighbours will improve.

It should be noted that the elections in Ukraine will take place in January, and the incumbent president's chances of re-election are quite slim. According to recent polls, his old rival Viktor Yanukovych is leading with 24 per cent.

According to some analysts, Medvedev's message was aimed at undermining the rating of pro-Western Yushchenko.

But Yushchenko does not intend to give up without a fight. After a two-day break, he replied to Medvedev. The Ukrainian president noted that he was disappointed in the "unfriendly nature" of the Russian president's message.

In his view, the decision to postpone the arrival of the new Russian ambassador to Kiev "will not contribute to the constructive development of our relations". "Your letter contains another repetition of well-known criticism aimed at depriving Ukraine of its look at its own history, its own national interests and foreign policy priorities," said Yushchenko (Gazeta.ru).

In addition, Yushchenko urged Moscow not to perceive Ukraine's desire to join NATO as "anti-Russian". The Ukrainian president stressed that participation in political and military alliances is the inherent right of a sovereign state, and the final decision to join the alliance will be taken only after a nationwide referendum.

The Ukrainian president also criticized the Russian side for systematic violations of his country's laws and bilateral agreements on matters related to the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet on Ukrainian territory, noting that the Ukrainian constitution does not allow foreign military bases on its territory.

According to the Ukrainian analyst Alekdandr Paliy, Viktor Yushchenko's two-day silence allowed the Ukrainian president to think about his position and give an informative response to Dmitriy Medvedev on all charges. His letter was diplomatic, reserved and unemotional. In particular, not hurrying to respond, Yushchenko won "the attention of the world media", the expert believes.

Russian analysts tend to believe that Yushchenko awaited US reaction and then decided to issue a reply consistent with the US response. "Ukraine is a sovereign state and has the right to advance its interests by any means of its choosing," said the representative of the US Department of State, Philip Crowley, at a daily briefing in Washington.

Crowley also spoke out in support of Ukraine's accession to NATO, the Associated Press reports. He noted that Ukraine has the right to take independent decisions and the United States believes that "Ukraine has the right to join NATO, if it so desires."

The representative of the State Department expressed hope for improvements in Russian-Ukrainian relations. However, to all appearances, Crowley's desire will not materialize soon. At least, the Russian president openly made it clear that full diplomatic relations with Kiev are unlikely to be restored before the upcoming January 2010 presidential elections in Ukraine, and only if Yushchenko leaves his post.