DIFFICULT DECISION

It is impossible to say anything for sure about North Korea, a country so much spoken about. And this uncertainty is so alarming that some observers in the region, while speaking about the developments surrounding North Korea, recall the notorious Caribbean crisis when the world found itself on the brink of nuclear war. For the time being, events are not unfolding in the best possible way. Back in late May, US and South Korean military contingents raised their observation of North Korea to "stage two" (by agreement with South Korea, a 28,500-strong US contingent is stationed on South Korean territory to prevent possible aggression on the part of North Korea). We recall that "stage two" was also introduced in 2006, in the aftermath of Pyongyang's first nuclear tests. It is reported that additional military personnel, reconnaissance aircraft and possibly even unmanned spies-in-the-sky are conducting observations now. Under particular study is the demilitarized zone on the border between North and South Korea, a joint security zone in Phanmunchjom and the area around the so-called northern separation line - a disputed section of the Yellow Sea.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is reported to have no intention of giving in to the north and the country's military elite is fully behind him. Some sources say that Seoul has already prepared military plans to counter a missile attack from North Korea. South Korea has plans for retaliatory missile blows from three directions at once - by ground troops, the air force and the navy. 

Meanwhile, military exercises, which may turn out to be preparations for clashes at sea, have been held on the western coast of North Korea. The North Korean administration has already warned other countries not to come close to the country's coastal areas. According to some reports, North Korea has launched large-scale production of "Cornet" anti-tank missile complexes, which were imported from Syria and are capable of breaking armour 1,200 mm thick. 

Neighbouring countries view these warnings as further evidence of impending trials of new varied-range missiles. Informed sources suggest that an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska has been delivered to a launch pad in the North Korean town of Anbkhen. This could be a modified version of the Tkhepkhodong-2 missile. Also reported is its most probable launch date - 16 June, when the US and South Korean presidents meet for a summit in Washington. 

Western experts say that previous launches of Tkhepkhodong (the last was in April) were unsuccessful. At the same time, it is believed that the primary stage of the missile carrier worked well and could therefore be used independently to deliver a large cargo, a nuclear warhead for example, over medium range. Of course it would not reach the US coast, but Japan is within reach. North Korea is also supposedly planning to launch several medium-range missiles.

We recall that in late May North Korea conducted its second nuclear trial at an underground site near the town of Kilchju (according to the Russian Defence Ministry, the nuclear device was between 10 and 20 kilotons). The country also launched several short- and medium-range missiles, two of which were aimed at American reconnaissance aircraft. The North Korean administration then issued a statement withdrawing from the 1953 truce which ended the Korean war. Pyongyang said that "if necessary" it was ready to repel South Korea and its allies. 

Against this backdrop and in the wake of the recent nuclear trials, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not rule out a return by North Korea to the "blacklist" of countries encouraging terrorism. Clinton said that State Department experts were seeking evidence that North Korea is still supporting international terrorist organizations. North Korea was removed from the list quite recently, in October 2008, while George Bush was in the White House. 

As if in reply, North Korean authorities convicted two American journalists, detained on the border with China, guilty of a "grave crime" against the North Korean nation - crossing the country's borders illegally - and sentenced them to 12 years of correctional labour. The convicted journalists will not even be able to appeal against the sentence, because judgments by the Central Court of North Korea are final. 

What about the world community? While reports were coming in that North Korea was preparing to test a ballistic missile, the member countries of the UN Security Council were feverishly trying to agree on a resolution about North Korea. This, however, proved not to be very easy, despite the unanimous condemnation of Pyongyang's action by all SC members. The stumbling block for the Security Council was the extent to which pressure could and should be applied to North Korea. All SC members appreciate that it is unacceptable to allow North Korea to have nuclear weapons but, on the other hand, the use of force is unacceptable, as it could have unpredictable implications.

Meanwhile, many pundits are trying to link North Korea's aggressive conduct with internal problems in this tightly closed country. The point is that 67-year-old Kim Jong-il, who has led the country since 1994, suffered a stroke after the death of his father, Kim Il Sung, in the summer of last year. Thus it is no surprise that he is now concerned with issues around the delegation of power. Despite North Korea's iron curtain, reports are filtering through that shortly after the nuclear trials or, according to another version, on 2 June, the great leader's 25-year-old (or, possibly, 26-year-old) son, Kim Jong-un, nicknamed the Prince, was solemnly named as likely successor. North Korea intelligence suggests that various North Korean agencies have already sworn an oath of allegiance to Kim Jong-un, while the country's population is quickly learning songs of dedication to the new leader.

Some reports say that during the "transition period" between the two Kims, the country is being run by the husband of Kim Jong-il's sister - Chen Sung Tek. 

Eyewitnesses, who are few in number, say that Un is an exact copy of his father - both in appearance and character. For this, he is considered to be the most capable of Kim Jong-il's three sons. However, very little is known about the Prince - he may have used a pen-name to study at an international school in Bern and at a military academy in Pyongyang. He is 175 cm tall, weighs 90 kg and, according to the South Korean press, he suffers from diabetes. There is only one photo of Un, which was taken when he was 11. Some media report that while studying abroad the leader's son played basketball and was a fan of NBA. 

In fact, Kim Jong-il's elder son, 38-year-old Kim Chen Nam, declared earlier that he had no desire to come to power, to such an extent that in 2001 he was detained at Tokyo airport attempting to enter Japan on a forged passport. It is no coincidence that his father believes he is too vulnerable to the influence of western culture. 

Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the nuclear "games" were intended by Kim Jong-il to further reinforce power in the country and to please North Korean servicemen and old party members, who subsequently supported the leader's choice.

At the same time, there are no guarantees that there will not be a fight for power when the leader dies. Perhaps the best scenario would be one in which Kim Jong-un assumed power but was more open and sensible than his father. He would not be expected to turn a blind eye to the needs of the population, which has to live in conditions of limited access to consumer goods and, due to crop failures, possibly even large-scale famine. 

However, many experts maintain that there are reasons to believe that the nuclear "performance" was staged by the North Korean administration to winkle out more world aid during a possible resumption of six-sided talks (with the USA, Russia, South Korea, China and Japan).

In fact, China's role in this scenario is quite interesting. According to some information, Beijing is preparing a lightning invasion of North Korea if Kim Jong-il's death triggers a fight for power. Such a course of developments would run counter to the interests of South Korea, the US and Russia. China is afraid of an influx of refugees which could inundate the country in case of military action or a severe economic blockade. Things are even more complicated by the fact that China is the key supplier of food to North Korea. Beijing is trying to earn extra points in the region, which it will not gain if the attempts to bring Pyongyang to reason do not yield fruit.

One thing is gratifying - no-one is particularly impressed by North Korea's nuclear games. Some sceptics have even "buried" the nuclear non-proliferation programme, which, to be honest, did not look very convincing even before, because some countries in possession of nuclear weapons have never signed the treaty. The latest developments did nothing to support the ongoing efforts of Russia and the US to agree further reductions in nuclear arsenals.

The fact that North Korea has access to weapons of mass destruction is a serious provocation in itself. If, God forbid, it comes to the weapons being put to work, the terms for the use of missiles armed with nuclear warheads will almost certainly be reconsidered.   

At the same time, Pyongyang is setting a very negative example for Iran, which has been preoccupied with its presidential election. If Japan, South Korea and Indonesia follow North Korea's example in the Far East, Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb would mean that Iran's regional neighbours - Turkey, Egypt… might want to do the same. This would mean a considerable expansion of the club of nuclear states. In consequence, it would be more difficult to manage the various situations that might arise there.  

Further, North Korea has repeatedly been seen on the black market, trading in raw materials and technology. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has recently discovered traces of artificially produced uranium at a nuclear site in Damascus, Syria. North Korea is believed to be behind this production. The agency had previously encountered traces of radioactive material at a suspicious site in the Syrian desert, which was destroyed by Israeli bombers in 2007. US intelligence said at the time that Israeli aviation had actually destroyed a nuclear reactor which had been under construction and intended for the production of weapon-grade plutonium.