A COUNTRY RISEN FROM THE ASHES

Azerbaijan marks National Salvation Day on 15 June. On this date 16 years ago the Azerbaijani people, who were facing the threat of schism and civil war, made an historic choice to invite national leader Heydar Aliyev to power.

Azerbaijan, already suffering as a result of Armenia's war of occupation, was also on the verge of losing its independence. The country's leadership at the time, which was paralysed and practically recognized its own incompetence, had no choice but to meet the demand of the people - to ask an experienced, world-scale politician for help. Heydar Aliyev took on the enormous responsibility when he agreed to head parliament and later the country which needed to be restored almost from the ashes. Heydar Aliyev averted civil war and bloodshed, achieved a cease-fire on the Karabakh front and the return of part of the land occupied by Armenia. Separatism and attempted state coups were decisively suppressed. This laid the foundation for the current political stability and progressive development.

From 15 June 1993 Azerbaijan set its course towards the establishment and development of healthy relations with the outside world. As a result of its balanced, multi-vector foreign policy Azerbaijan has become a country whose position is considered decisive on many issues of regional and even global significance. Practically all international forums today stress that the energy and transport projects initiated and carried out by Baku have radically changed the geopolitical situation in the region. Thanks to the oil and gas contracts the country not only ensures its own energy security, but plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring the energy security of the whole of Europe. President Ilham Aliyev said at Caspian Oil and Gas 2009, "Were it not for projects such as Baku - Tbilisi - Ceyhan and Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum, Europe's energy security would today be tackled in quite a different way." 

Were Azerbaijan not a strong state and reliable and predictable partner, the country's problems would be tackled in quite a different way too. This is the source of Baku's confidence and resolve in tackling the main problem in domestic and foreign policy - the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In his speech to mark the 91st anniversary of the founding of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, President Ilham Aliyev again confirmed official Baku's position that broad regional cooperation requires the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories. "In other words, any attempts to include Yerevan in regional projects, which is actively lobbied for by some Western countries and organizations, are doomed to fail, if there is no progress in settling the conflict. This message from the head of state is directed primarily at the EU and the countries in the region that mistakenly believe that they can include Armenia in multifaceted regional projects," Fuad Axundov, head of section in the Presidential Administration, commented to R+. 

In this context, it is also worth considering the initiative on Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Azerbaijan has taken a principled stance on this issue too, reminding the leadership of friendly Turkey of the reasons why the Armenian-Turkish border is formally closed: Armenia is still occupying 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory and it has not given up on its territorial claims on Turkey and demands for the recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide.

"We think that sending positive messages to Yerevan in the current climate could be interpreted by them as encouragement to continue the policy of occupation of Azerbaijani territory," Fuad Axundov said, commenting on Baku's official position. "This is unacceptable for Baku and other countries in the region will not gain from this either. In other words, we are expecting a real contribution from our friend Turkey to supporting the peace process, ensuring security and stability in the South Caucasus region."

It is true that Ankara has gained some dividends from the Armenian-Turkish thaw in both the European and American areas of its foreign policy. But in the final analysis the Turkish leadership had to give up short-term gain, moreover in favour primarily of its own national interests.

As for Azerbaijan's national interests, they are guaranteed by the unwavering political and economic course of the country's leadership. As the president said, Azerbaijan has succeeded in "turning oil capital into human capital", graphic confirmation of which is provided by the country's stability in the face of the world economic crisis. According to the International Monetary Fund's Regional Economic Outlook report, published in May, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia may well fall seriously behind the macro-economic achievements of recent years. According to the IMF's calculations, economic growth in the region in 2009 will come to a virtual halt. Only in 2010 can 5-per-cent growth be expected and this will be thanks to growth in Azerbaijan of 12 per cent, the report says. In other words, Azerbaijan will "drive" the region and make it attractive to investment.

The IMF report also contains many other assessments, which build up quite a positive picture of the Azerbaijani economy compared with even the oil countries of the Middle East. The assessments of other authoritative international organizations and ratings agencies are no less optimistic. But history and the Azerbaijani people, who are today celebrating National Salvation Day, have given the most important assessment of Heydar Aliyev's course followed by Azerbaijan.