TOUGH, BUT NO HINT AT A MILITARY SOLUTION

Those who claimed that the North Korean leadership, which is jostling for position before a possible resumption of the six-sided talks (with China, Japan, Russia, the USA and South Korea), would not exacerbate its relations with the world community were mistaken. It turned out that the events of April this year, when North Korea was suspected of having tested a military ballistic missile, were just the beginning.

At the end of May, Pyongyang announced the severance of the 1953 truce which ended the Korean War. Now the North Korean military claims that, if necessary, they will respond militarily to all their adversaries - South Korea and its allies. Moreover, Pyongyang added that it no longer guarantees the security of navigation along its western coastline. One week earlier, the Japanese coast guard had reported that North Korea had warned its vessels to stay 130 km away from the city of Kimchaek on its north-eastern coast.

The truce between the two Koreas was signed on 27 June 1953, and was preceded by 1,076 rounds of talks. In any case, this document was never formalized as a peace agreement. In practice, the severance of the truce means that Pyongyang no longer recognizes the military demarcation line in the middle of the 4 km demilitarized zone between the two states.

This threat of war is North Korea's response to South Korea's decision on 26 May to join the programme to fight the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) which was launched on the initiative of the USA in 2003. The main goal of the PSI is to prevent and foil the illegal turnover of materials used to create weapons of mass destruction. The PSI also provides for compulsory checks on vessels suspected of carrying banned substances on the open sea.

Pyongyang has repeatedly said that Seoul's participation in the PSI would be tantamount to declaring war on North Korea.

On 25 May this year, North Korea carried out a second underground nuclear test, with an explosion of 10 to 20 kilotons, which was accompanied by an earthquake measuring 4.5. The source of the tremors was at a depth of 10 km, CNN quoted the US Geological Survey as saying.

At the same time, North Korea launched three missiles. It is believed that one of them, with a range of about 130 km, was launched as part of exercises, while the two others targeted US spy planes which were monitoring the presumed site of the nuclear test.

In connection with Pyongyang's actions, the UN Security Council held an emergency session in New York on 25 May, condemning North Korea for breaking Security Council Resolution 1718, which was adopted in response to a nuclear test carried out by North Korea in 2006.

Member countries of the Security Council decided to draw up a new, tougher resolution in connection with the nuclear test and a further one in connection with the launch of missiles from the eastern coast of North Korea, most likely from the Cape of Musudan, which also alarmed the world community. From 25 to 27 May, North Korea launched six missiles of various ranges (surface-to-air and anti-naval missiles)

As noted above, North Korea was suspected of having tested a missile when a Unha-2 rocket, carrying the Kvanmenson-1 satellite, was unsuccessfully launched on 5 April 2009. 

North Korea made its first attempt to launch a space rocket carrying an artificial satellite on 31 August 1998. Although the missile crashed into the sea, it caused a great outcry around the world, since such missiles can be used to deliver nuclear warheads over long distances.

The North Korean authorities continue to reject these accusations and claim that all tests were of a peaceful nature and were carried out in order to put a satellite into orbit. In response to the UN Security Council's condemnation of its actions, North Korea quit the negotiating process and resumed its nuclear programme, which resulted in the nuclear tests of 25 May.

Pyongyang resumed its work to produce weapons-grade plutonium at the Yonben nuclear centre, 80 km from Pyongyang, as confirmed by US spy satellites. Informed military sources in Tokyo maintain that, after the second nuclear test, North Korea had fusion material for another 5-7 warheads. So it is quite likely that, by the end of the year, Pyongyang will have enough material for another warhead.

It must be noted that North Korea had earlier agreed to resume the six-sided talks on nuclear disarmament after the UN imposed economic sanctions on the country for its nuclear tests in 2006. North Korea pledged to close nuclear sites in exchange for economic aid. But then it all began again, and now international observers are guessing what the North Korean leadership has in mind this time.

There is almost no access to a country which lives in isolation from the rest of the world, and North Korea's neighbours can only hope that Pyongyang is engaged in nuclear blackmail only in order to get a better position for the resumption of the six-sided talks. No-one seems to doubt that they will continue. The industry and agriculture of North Korea are in too difficult a situation to withstand even tougher sanctions from the international community. North Korea has definitely to agree to put an end to its bellicose intentions in return for humanitarian supplies and financial aid. That is, of course, if the North Korean regime does not receive assistance from outside.

Some observers note that the North Korean authorities also have domestic reasons for such a demonstration of force. This is probably just an attempt to intimidate their own people, who have been deprived of many benefits and have been put literally on the edge of survival by Pyongyang's ambition.

However, the fact that this is happening with the help of nuclear tests is very alarming. North Korea has been repeatedly suspected of supplying missiles to the Middle East and South Asia. How will Iran behave inspired by such an example? The Security Council has been trying in vain to persuade Tehran to halt its nuclear programme. What will the nuclear-free neighbours of North Korea do, especially South Korea, on which war has in fact been declared? Bordering on an aggressive regime with nuclear warheads does not promote the cause of peaceful co-existence. And finally, the most important question: what should the international community do in this situation? It is clear that military pressure on Pyongyang is totally ruled out, as it may have irreparable consequences.

For this reason, the resumption of peace talks is probably the only hope. It is necessary to react toughly to Pyongyang's actions, but with no hint at a military solution.

Observers agree that the White House administration may have the final say here. It has to let it be known that the door is still open to North Korea, even though Pyongyang decided to demonstrate force at the very moment when US President Barack Obama spoke about the need to reduce the planet's nuclear arsenal and when an extremely dangerous situation is developing in Pakistan, where the nuclear button may fall into the hands of terrorists.

It is also in the interests of neighbouring China to hold the North Korean leadership on a leash because, for China, the downfall of the current Pyongyang regime would mean that Western, principally US, troops would approach the borders of the Celestial Empire.

By agreement between the USA and South Korea, a 28,500-strong American contingent has been deployed on South Korean territory. Its task is to prevent possible aggression from North Korea. The American and South Korean military contingents have increased their monitoring of North Korea.

A new resolution on Pyongyang is expected to be adopted in early June.