
INFORMAL CONFEDERATION
The Tbilisi - Baku axis is increasingly determining regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus
Author: Rasim MUSABAYOV, political analyst Baku
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili paid an official visit to Azerbaijan on 20-21 May. He was accompanied by Georgia's first lady, Sandra Roelofs, Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze, Economic Development Minister Lasha Zhvania, Energy Minister Alexander Khetaguri and other officials. The Georgian leader had a t?te-?-t?te meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, met Milli Maclis speaker Oqtay Asadov and also held extended talks with the participation of the delegation.
Three documents were signed. Two are additional protocols, making amendments to existing intergovernmental agreements on free trade and air transport. The third document was a new agreement on protecting intellectual property.
Several significant regional projects were announced during the Georgian leader's visit and will be carried out in the near future, including the international highway linking Batumi and Baku. A substantial chunk of it has already been built - both in Azerbaijan and Georgia - and in future these segments will become part of a Baku - Tbilisi - Istanbul motorway. The construction of new high-voltage power lines is proposed which will allow Azerbaijan and Georgia to exchange power and export electricity to Turkey and elsewhere.
Saakashvili's visit ended with the first Baku - Batumi flight, on which the Georgian president and Azerbaijani officials were the guests of honour. Azal will fly the route twice a week. This really is very important news, when you bear in mind that Georgia's Black Sea coast is home to major terminals (Supsa, Kulevi) through which Azerbaijani oil is transported. Vessels sailing under the Azerbaijani flag use Georgia's Black Sea ports. So the flights will not be half-empty and may even need to be supplemented by charter flights during the holiday season. Agreement has been reached on the construction of a special tourism complex in Batumi - Azerbaijani investors will build a fashionable hotel.
President Saakashvili's recent visit to Baku may at first sight seem run of the mill in the context of Azerbaijan and Georgia's wide-ranging and intensive relations. These types of talks take place between our leaders, members of our governments and parliaments many times a year. However, bearing in mind the domestic political crisis which has again gripped Georgia and Russia's increasing pressure on the country, the significance of the Georgian president's trip to Azerbaijan should not be underestimated.
The press is now full of alarming reports about an alleged new Russian invasion of Georgia, planned for the summer, either to overthrow the Kremlin's "hated" Saakashvili government, or to open a "corridor" for direct links between Armenia and Russia. Although diplomatic correctness was observed in Baku and no-one pointed the finger at the Russian Federation, the stress on Azerbaijan and Georgia's strategic partnership contained a clear message to opponents of this partnership.
In his speech at the enlarged session of the Azerbaijani-Georgian intergovernmental committee, Mikheil Saakashvili noted with gratitude, "Ilham Aliyev and his team do not only make promises, they keep them too." He went on to say: "There are no issues that would not unite our countries and that we cannot tackle quickly. A large part of the plans made several years ago has already been carried out."
Saakashvili said that Georgia and Azerbaijan now constitute an informal confederation. Clearly, this phrase should not be taken in the literal legal sense, but figuratively and politically, as an expression of the high degree of partnership and union in links between Georgia and Azerbaijan, which presupposes agreed actions to rebuff external challenges and threats.
For his part, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev noted the successful implementation of large-scale bilateral and regional projects.
"We traditionally defend and support one another in international organizations and I am sure that this mutual support will continue in future," the Azerbaijani president said. "Georgian-Azerbaijani relations have great significance for the region. The development of friendly and brotherly links is important for our peoples and countries, it has great significance for the maintenance of peace and stability in the region too. I think that these talks and joint activity in future will bring our countries even closer together."
On the eve of Saakashvili's visit, the Azerbaijani media were full of a concocted story about possible Azerbaijani mediation to reconcile Georgia with Moscow. But there was nothing during the visit to back up this supposition.
In fact, not even French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the European Union as a whole could settle relations between Russia and Georgia on the basis of respect for Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereign rights. For Baku to take on such a mission, which does not have the slightest chance of success, would be an excessive burden and, basically, senseless. To persuade Mikheil Saakashvili to meekly bow his head before the Kremlin contradicts Azerbaijan's interests as a state that is also suffering from aggressive separatism, supported from outside. This role would better suit Armenia, as Moscow's "bridgehead", which unlike us directly suffers from the disruption to communications with Russia that used to pass through Georgia.
Fuad Axundov, head of section at the Azerbaijani presidential administration, gave a concise commentary on President Saakashvili's visit: "Baku has an interest in political and economic stability in Georgia, and the development of relations and strengthening of partnership between our countries have not only bilateral, but also regional significance," he said. "After Russia and Ukraine, Georgia is Baku's leading trade partner in the CIS. The trade turnover between our countries in 2008 exceeded $500 million, and on the results of the first quarter of this year Georgia has even overtaken Ukraine in the list of Azerbaijan's leading trade partners. Azerbaijan's investment in Georgia strengthens Georgia's economy and at the same time increases the competitiveness of our major companies. SOCAR's subsidiary in Georgia is a major tax payer, paying more than $100 million last year into the state budget."
Fuad Axundov also said that tackling the current socio-economic and humanitarian problems of the Azerbaijani community in Georgia is an important topic in bilateral dialogue and cooperation with Tbilisi, to which President Ilham Aliyev always pays special attention. He said that Baku is expecting substantive support from the Georgian authorities in improving the socio-economic situation of Georgian Azerbaijanis, tackling their problems in finding jobs and getting access to good quality education in the state language, Georgian, and in Azerbaijani, and in providing them with land and so on.
Straight after Saakashvili's visit to Baku, the Azerbaijani, Georgian and Turkish transport ministers met in Batumi and took the decision to accelerate work on laying the Kars - Akhalkalaki - Tbilisi railway. Unlike the fanciful projects which Armenia announces from time to time, either in partnership with Russia or Iran, the regional projects in which Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are involved are large-scale and effective and are carried out, despite the opinions of sceptics and ill-wishers.
It is the Baku - Tbilisi axis, boosted by Ankara, that will increasingly determine regional geopolitics in the South Caucasus. Unlike Armenia, which is a source of conflict and tension in the region, Azerbaijan and Georgia are intent on constructive, productive partnership, aimed at strengthening stability and security in the region.
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