ALL AGAINST ALL

The election campaign is, in fact, under way in Ukraine, and its timeframe is controversial. Political life in the country and its usual driving forces are as active as ever: total distrust; alliances formed against someone else's interests rather than on shared positive aims and an endless supply of compromising dossiers and accusations. Against this background, what is particularly apparent is the uncertainty about what kind of election Ukrainian voters should prepare for: presidential, or parliamentary, or both? The status of these elections is still unknown: extraordinary or regular. Even the date remains unfixed…

For example, the local Central Electoral Commission is talking about the next presidential elections, scheduled for 25 October 2009 by parliamentary decree. The incumbent President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, at first opposed this date, saying that the next presidential elections should be held on 17 January 2010, while elections on 25 October would be extraordinary in any case. Nevertheless, as it has turned out, Yushchenko may agree to hold presidential elections on 25 October if parliamentary elections are held simultaneously, with preliminary changes to election law.

It is worth explaining that the confusion about whether the presidential elections will be extraordinary or regular arises from the fact that Yushchenko was elected on the basis of the old constitution. According to the old constitution elections for a new head of state should be held in October and, according to the new one, in January. For this reason, the Ukrainian parliament, most of whose deputies dream of getting rid of Yushchenko, thinks that since the president was elected under the old constitution, the elections should be held according to the old schedule. Yushchenko, who has a catastrophically low personal rating at the moment, is trying to bide his time and says that the presidential elections should be held under the current, not the old, constitution.

On the other hand, it is important for Yushchenko that parliamentary elections are brought forward, so that the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (YTB) does not have a large representation in the new parliament, while Yushchenko's supporters remain in the political arena, albeit with little representation. The point is that the YTB's popularity rating is not so high, and it is not expected to be very successful in parliamentary elections; we cannot say this for Yuliya Tymoshenko herself, whose personal popularity remains at a certain level, and she could even fight for the post of president.

Realizing that it was necessary to act as quickly as possible, Yushchenko appealed to the Constitutional Court to declare the autumn election schedule illegal.

In addition, the president also says that he can dissolve parliament if it fails to accept voluntary re-election under the pretext that it contains no full coalition. No one knows how this standoff will end. After 25 April, the Ukrainian parliament can no longer be dissolved because, under Part 5 of Article 90 of the Ukrainian constitution, the president cannot terminate the powers of a parliament ahead of schedule in the last six months of its 'life'.

But this is not all. The Ukrainian president has also urged the Constitutional Court to recognize the incumbent government as illegitimate. He explained his decision by the fact that, according to the law, while forming a new coalition in parliament, deputies have to vote on the prime minister's candidacy. However, this did not happen last time because the changes in the coalition were insignificant - part of the NUNS bloc quit, while the Litvin bloc joined. During preliminary hearings on 13 April, the Constitutional Court did not support the president's representation to recognize violations in the appointment of the current prime minister.

Meanwhile, Yushchenko's decision (or maybe desire) to run for both president and parliament in the event of extraordinary presidential and parliamentary elections deserves special attention. He announced his intention during an interview with Kommersant. At the same time, RIA Novosti noted correctly that election law does not allow a Ukrainian presidential candidate to run for parliament.

Moreover, experts believe that a simultaneous holding of parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine may disrupt both. Although some believe that the incumbent president is deliberately trying to create such a situation, because this will allow him to make the necessary changes to the constitution, in the process considerably weakening parliament and the government. Specifically, "Yushchenko-style" constitutional reform envisages the transformation of the Ukrainian parliament into a bicameral parliament, in which the government will be formed by the lower chamber on the basis of a majority coalition and the president will have the right to dissolve it. Also, the approval of the upper chamber would be required for any parliamentary decision.

Meanwhile, proUA quoted a source as saying that the YTB and Viktor Yanukovich's Party of the Regions have almost reached agreement in their talks on changing the constitution, namely to elect the president, not in a nationwide election, but in parliament. Also as a result of the talks, they decided to establish a new coalition in parliament which will include the Party of the Regions. It is expected that these agreements will be implemented during the first plenary week of the Ukrainian parliament on 12 May. It should be noted that earlier Yanukovich presented himself as a supporter of a nationwide election for the head of state, not one restricted to parliament. Moreover, no-one, including representatives of the Party of the Regions and the YTB, believes in their union.

What is interesting is that Yushchenko said at an earlier news conference that Tymoshenko had first suggested that he support the changes to the constitution, but he had turned down this proposal.

In any case, all attention in Ukraine is now focused on what decisions are made by the Constitutional Court on the presidential issues. Based on previous events in Ukraine, we may say that politicians who are displeased with the decision of the supreme judges may not agree with him…

Thus, we may conclude that within any disposition of forces, the head of the Party of the Regions, Viktor Yanukovich, is better placed for both presidential and parliamentary elections. He has already expressed his intention to run for president. In 2004, Viktor Yanukovich fought for the post of president and won the second round. However, the "Orange Revolution" cancelled this result, a "third round" was scheduled and Viktor Yushchenko won. But then Yushchenko and Tymoshenko began sharing power, which seems to have brought Yanukovych to the cherished threshold.

Earlier, the mayor of Kiev, Leonid Chern-ovetskiy, the former speaker of parliament, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the former defence minister, Anatoliy Gritsenko, and the incumbent head of state, Viktor Yushchenko, all expressed their intention to run for president. Yuliya Tymoshenko is still silent.

According to a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute for Sociology, which is available on openbiz.com.ua, Viktor Yanukovych is still the most popular leader with voters (his share of the potential vote has increased from 18.7 to 25.5 per cent). In half a year, the number of voters prepared to vote for Arseniy Yatsenyuk in the first round of elections also increased considerably (from 3.4 to 13.6 per cent). Among supporters of Yuliya Tymoshenko there is an opposite tendency - the prime minister's rating has fallen from 16.8 to 14.4 per cent, while President Yushchenko also lost 1.7 per cent (only 2.4 per cent of people are prepared to vote for his re-election).

Viktor Yushchenko's bloc, Our Ukraine, is doing even worse. Only 1.9 per cent of people say they will vote for the presidential bloc in the parliamentary elections. Yanu-kovich's Party of the Regions would gain 21.4 per cent of the vote in extraordinary elections, the Tymoshenko bloc - 17.3 per cent and the Yatsenyuk bloc - 8.3 per cent.

It should be noted that according to many Ukrainian voters Yushchenko will not run for president himself, but will support Arseniy Yatsenyuk. According to other rumours, Yatsenyuk is planning to make a deal with Yuliya Tymoshenko (she remains prime minister and restores trust in the YTB with reasonable measures at a time of crisis, while Yatsenyuk becomes president). Yatsenyuk has already distanced himself from Yushchenko.