DID THEY HAVE A PLAN?

No-one is able to answer clearly what happened in Moldova after the parliamentary elections - was it an attempt to overthrow the government through a revolution? Opposition protests which turned into mass disturbances resulted in the storming of the parliament and the presidential administration and pogroms. But what happened did not really resemble a revolutionary scenario. In general, judging by the chronology of events, there was no scenario as such.

Who won?

Everything began after the communists won the parliamentary elections on 5 April - the ruling party gained about 50 per cent of the vote. As was expected, such results did not suit the opposition. The three opposition parties - the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the alliance Our Moldova - which won seats in the new parliament demanded recounting of votes. They even called for repeat elections.

The next day after the elections, the opposition, which was sure that there had been election fraud, began protests which grew into mass disturbances. Youths started throwing stones, bottles and eggs at the presidential residency and the parliament. Then the Chisinau protesters set fire to the presidential administration and raised the Romanian flag at the entrance and the EU flag on the spire of the building.

The protesters stormed the parliament. The assembly hall and the offices of the leaders of the Moldovan parliament were almost totally destroyed during the riots. The parliament building was also set on fire. However, fire engines could not approach the building due to a high number of protesters.

During the mass disturbances, about 300 people were arrested. Charges were brought against 166 of them. Eighty-eight people are in custody and another 88 are under house arrest. Thirty-three people gave a written undertaking not to leave their place of residence, while the rest were set free. During the clashes, 170 policemen and more than 100 citizens were injured. One protester died in hospital several days later.

An analysis of the events shows that everything happened spontaneously and the opposition did not control the situation. Apparently, this is the reason why the rating of the conflicting sides in Moldova was clearly not in favour of opposition party leaders, though, as a rule, it is the leaders of protesters who become popular during riots, rebellions and revolutions. But the latest events in Moldova show that everything can be the other way round. It was the government, or to be more precise, President Vladimir Voronin who gained the biggest dividends from the riots in Chisinau after the parliamentary elections.

It must be noted that the opposition parties hurried to insure themselves and dissociated themselves from the organizers of the riots. Moreover, the leaders of Our Moldova (Serafim Urechean), the Liberal Democratic Party (Vlad Filat) and the Liberal Party (Dorin Chirtoaca) who won seats in parliament refused to stage mass protests though the Chisinau mayor's office sanctioned them from 6 to 20 April on the city's central square. The leader of the Liberal Democrats even admitted that his party "failed to use the opportunity to organize its own demonstrations".

Thus, the Moldovan opposition proved weak and helpless. Its leaders could not even use the meeting which activists of the movement "I Am Not A Communist" had convened through SMS messages, social networks and blogs. Nor could they manage people and prevent street riots. Filat admitted that the opposition leaders tried to ensure that the protests were peaceful. "Unfor-tunately, we failed to do so, and responsibility for that lies not just with us, but also with the authorities. At the same time, we decisively dissociate ourselves from those who allowed this bacchanalia and acts of vandalism to happen," Filat said.

This state of affairs gave more confidence to the Moldovan authorities. "The Moldovan authorities saw for themselves for the first time that the opposition openly betrayed its own people and country, taking the path of provoking an open civil war. The whole country saw that there was no opposition in Moldova - anti-communist and anti-Voronin. In Moldova, there is only anti-state opposition," Vladimir Voronin said the next day after the pogroms.

The Moldovan president was even more inspired by the positive assessment of the elections by international organizations, and announcing recounting of votes, he eliminated the opposition's main pretext to protest. It must be noted that according to the official results of the elections, the Communist Party gained 49.48 per cent. This means that the communists gained 60 seats in parliament which should elect the next president, and the opposition parties gained 41 of the 101 seats. With such a disposition of forces, the ruling party lacks just one vote in order to elect its own candidate to the post of president without hindrance.

But even the lack of one vote did not stop Voronin from agreeing to recount the votes. On 12 April, the Constitutional Court of Moldova decided to recount the votes. This whole process will take nine days.

The Romanian hand and the boomerang effect

Meanwhile, the Chisinau government accused Romania of involvement in the mass disturbances, which caused a political scandal between the two countries. Chisinau recalled its ambassador from Bucharest for consultations, while the Romanian ambassador to Moldova was declared persona non grata and was expelled from the country. Moldova also introduced visas with Romania, though these visas will be free. According to the Moldovan law-enforcement agencies, organized youth groups from Romania took part in the disturbances, inciting the demonstrators to clash with the police and storm the parliament and the presidential administration. The rallies, including in the Romanian capital Bucharest, called for the "overthrow of communism" in Moldova and used the national flags of Moldova and Romania and EU symbols. The posters said "Bessarabia is Romanian land". The events in Moldova were the lead story in all Romanian media, radio and television. A special edition on one of Romanian TV channels, Svoboda TV, called the events a real "revolution" and compared them to the "events of 1989 in Romania when Ceausescu's regime was overthrown".

Moldova and Romania have a lot in common. Some residents even regard themselves as ethnic Romanians and have Romanian passports. For this reason, on the one hand, it is no surprise that they chanted "We are Romanians" during the riots. However, the very appearance of Romanian flags in government offices allows the Moldovan leadership to openly accuse Romania of organizing an attempt to overthrow the government. President Voronin said that Romania had a hand in all the events happening in the country. "Romania's influence is very serious and serious intelligence work can be noticed," he said.

The actions of the Moldovan opposition in fact gave a trump card to the Voronin government which has been unable to force Romania to sign a Basic or Big Treaty for many years. The point is that Bucharest refuses to sign this document which can put an end to all talk about Bessarabia's return or subordination to Great Romania. "We will still maintain good neighbourly relations with Romania. All we want is that they should be based on mutual understanding. The first step that could eliminate tensions could be the signing of a Basic Treaty with Romania," Communist MP Vladimir Turcan hinted.

Thus, the failed revolution in Moldova strengthened the communists' positions in the government and in the international arena. The recounting of votes will not change anything and will only reduce domestic political tensions.