DON'T EXPECT THE REVOLUTION TO REVOLT…

For Tbilisi, last August's five-day war with Moscow resulted in the total loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is a black mark on the image of Georgian leader Mikheil Saakas-hvili, who gained office on the back of the Rose Revolution. Georgians have not forgotten their president's strange behaviour during those dark days either - the whole world saw funny pictures of Saakashvili running from bombs that no-one else could see or hear and also the shocking moment when he nervously chewed his own tie. The president's opponents also accuse him of authoritarianism, falsifying the results of the last presidential elections and unacceptable state spending (for example, on personal requirements).

As a result, on 9 April Geor-gia's leading opposition parties began a protest action, calling for Saakashvili's resignation. The date was chosen deliberately, as on 9 April 1989 20 people died in demonstrations in the republic against Soviet power. These events are thought to have been decisive in the collapse of the USSR and Georgia's recent history.

Twenty years later Tbilisi's main street is again full of protesters, but fortunately there have been no injuries so far. The rally, which was attended by 50 to 100,000 people, according to different estimates, passed off relatively calmly. The presidential residence was pelted with carrots, as those who don't like Saakashvili tried to show that he is a cowardly rabbit, because, as opposition leader Bezhan Gunava said, "he is afraid of his own people". "Misha, go!" protesters shouted.

According to opposition spo-kesmen, in the evening of 11 April some 50 people broke through into the square where the protesters were gathered, broke the stage, damaged the equipment and beat up three of the people who had stayed behind after the rally. Georgian Deputy Interior Minister Eka Zghuladze said that the Interior Ministry had nothing to do with the destruction of the opposition's press centre and the culprits still had to be found. The opposition, meanwhile, is warning of provocation: "We have information that the authorities are planning in the near future to put old police patrol cars in various districts of the city - they will be smashed and the blame will be placed on opposition activists and supporters." These are remarkable comments, especially against the backdrop of the interior minister's promises that the ministry would not hinder the demonstrations, but would be tough on any illegal actions by protesters. Permission for protest actions in the city centre has been granted until 16 April. 

Earlier, on 10 April, opposition leaders announced the start "of civil disobedience", which would take the form of daily pickets of the parliament building and Public TV building and also of the roads leading to the presidential residence. 

The Georgian opposition's leaders include Georgia's former permanent representative to the UN and current leader of the Alliance for Georgia, Irakli Alasania (he is considered one of the candidates if early presidential elections are held), former parliamentary chairwoman and one of the initiators of the Rose Revolution, Nino Burjanadze, who is now the leader of the Democratic Movement-United Georgia, member of parliament and businessman Levan Gache-chiladze (who came second in the last presidential elections) and Labour Party leader Shalva Natelashvili. They have all rejected dialogue with the authorities. Addressing the rally, Burjanadze said that Saakashvili "has to resign, as the people are demanding this". Alasania offered talks with the president on condition that everything be broadcast live and conducted in the presence of representatives of the public, with the only possible topic of the talks the resignation of the head of state. Shalva Natelashvili promised to send Saakashvili "into the political wilderness from where he will never return". 

The opposition stresses that it intends to achieve its demands in a purely peaceful fashion. Saakas-hvili himself has also learnt the lessons of the past few years, especially of the autumn 2007 rally when protesters were dispersed by the police and special forces, using water cannon and tear gas. Therefore, the authorities are in no hurry to take open, targeted action against the opposition. And the president is not paying any attention to the ultimatums either - he says that he does not intend to stand down ahead of time, especially as a change in leadership during the economic crisis would be extremely ineffective. 

Saakashvili is also bolstered by various opinion polls that show that only 28 per cent of the population wants the current head of state to resign. The president's actions on reducing crime levels, attracting investment and turning Georgia towards the West do carry weight, although they pale beside all the failures. 

The Georgian public may simply be tired of the constant political tension. Another aspect is that the people do not think any of the opposition leaders could replace Saakashvili and put right his mistakes and unite the country as well. During her speech at the rally Nino Burjanadze decided to apologize to the people for not being able to protect them during the dispersal of the 7 November 2007 demonstration. "Today I promise you that I will stand alongside you and fight until the end for the removal of Saakashvili. Through our unity we will achieve Saakashvili's resignation," she said, but her remarks were greeted with whistles rather than applause. 

The opposition have made the events of last August their main argument against Saakashvili. "A president who has lost a war should resign," one slogan says. "I want to say to our brother Abkhaz and Ossetians that today the whole of Georgia is offering them the hand of friendship and all the problems existing between us will be resolved through talks and confidence building," Irakli Alasania said. 

These are only words. The opposition leaders do not have a realistic, viable programme to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia, just as they have no guarantee that if they get in, they won't start fighting amongst themselves for power. 

Against this backdrop the West is calling on Georgians to keep the peace. The European Union's special representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, did not rule out the possibility of the EU getting involved in organizing talks between the Georgian authorities and the opposition. 

At the same time, much of the Georgian media has published a statement that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has allegedly, on behalf of Russia, expressed readiness to help the Georgian opposition. In response to this report, Burjanadze, who is considered one of the supporters of patching up relations with Moscow in the opposition camp, said that "the opposition in Georgia does not need help from Russia". 

US State Department spo-kesman Richard Aker said that the Georgian opposition's demands for President Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation are an internal Georgian matter, Georgia Online reported. "We have heard from our embassy that the protests have been peaceful. The United States support Georgia in its process of building a democratic state; of course, building democracy also includes the right of peaceful protest," Aker said.

The West is holding back from direct support for the Georgian authorities. The opposition present Saakashvili as the main culprit for all the country's misfortunes. He does indeed bear responsibility for a great deal, but that doesn't mean that his absence will miraculously solve all Georgia's problems. It will be much more difficult to tackle them than to hold some street protests.

Moreover, in the economic situation in which Georgia currently finds itself, public conflict and possible unrest could become fatal for the country and it would no longer matter who was president.