WE WILL BUILD OUR NEW WORLD?

The gravest global economic crisis for half a century has created major problems for many countries.  However, it might result not only in a worsening of the standards of living of entire nations or even the financial bankruptcy of states, but also in a rise in the popularity of socialist ideas and the strengthening of left-wing movements across the world.

The world remembers Marx

World Bank and IMF reports prove decisively that the global economy will enter a recessionary period in 2009 - for the first time since the end of WWII.  "We expect global growth to fall to below zero this year, the worst performance in most of our lifetimes," said World Bank Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

In fact, the very system of unregulated capitalism, with the characteristic avarice of multinational capital, accelerated growth in inequality and deterioration of the environment, has been discredited in the eyes of most of mankind.  The global crisis emerged in the United States, where the economic model most liable to manipulation by financial tycoons reigns supreme.  The industrial recession hit Europe, too, and the Eurostat statistical service reports that economic recession is already established in the Old World.  It manifests itself, in particular, in crisis in the Euro zone, which unites 16 countries and where a single currency was introduced.

However, the effects of the crisis might be gravest for developing and poor countries.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned of this threat and urged developed countries not to limit credit lines for nations which need them.  UN experts note that there are signs of recession in 94 of the world's 116 developing countries.  The head of the IMF also talks of the possibility of collapse in the developing world:  "The crisis has hit the population of developing countries, but it will simply kill the inhabitants of poor countries.  While in developed countries, the issues of unemployment and consumer demand move to the fore, in poor countries it is a matter of life and death."

UNESCO 's analysis, in particular, stresses that the slowing pace of economic growth will result in losses of about $18 billion, which is about $46 per capita, for 390 million people in sub-Saharan Africa.  This is 20% of the per capita income of the poorest populations in Africa, which is in dramatic contrast to the losses which developed countries will sustain.

In the IMF's calculations, 22 states will need $25 billion to support their economies in 2009.  However, neither the United States nor Europe, which are busy saving their own economies, are ready to properly aid poor countries.  For example, the EU's obligation to begin allocating 0.56% of GDP by 2010 to assistance for poor states is quickly backsliding.  The governments of developed countries are not in the least bit inspired by the urgings of authoritative experts or, in particular, the World Bank's chief economist Justin Lin, to spend part of their budgetary stimulus packages in the developing world, because the economic effects of such a step could be much more significant than spending these funds in their own countries.

In the mean time, as the crisis unfolds and the threat of global recession gradually sinks in, the very principles behind the functioning of the global economy come under a blaze of criticism. The voices of those who support the Marxist theory of inevitability and the cyclical nature of capitalist crises are increasingly heard.  The influential British newspaper The Times published a large portrait of Karl Marx with the caption "He is back."  And the Economist, which is a mouthpiece of neoliberalism, declared:  "Economic freedom is in danger!" and called on everyone who still believes in capitalism to rally to its banners.

Bu international public opinion is still swaying towards a persuasion that this crisis marks the end of the era of capitalism, or at least its most prevalent model.  Hence the rise of left-wing movements in different countries and regions.

Leftists on the rise

As the economic crisis began to haunt the planet in mid-2008, left-wing movements, traditionally strong in large parts of Europe, Asia and Latin America, entered a new phase of activation, caused by the broadening of social conflict in many countries.

Among European countries, the real crisis occurred in Greece, where city streets became arenas for clashes between law enforcement agencies and rebellious youth with predominantly left-wing views.  Anti-capitalist demonstrations took place in Iceland and a number of Eastern Europe countries, first and foremost in the Baltic States, which, together with the "post-socialist giants" - Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic - and Ukraine, found themselves on the verge of economic bankruptcy.

Protest actions in Western Europe - Germany, Italy and Britain - also testify to the rise of left-wing movements.  There were protests in France, too, the political trendsetter in Europe.  In late March, there was the largest nationwide strike since the election of Nicolas Sarkozy, leader of the right-wing Gaullist party, as president.  It was preceded by disorders in Guadeloupe and Martinique, French overseas departments in the Caribbean basin, which could not tolerate rising prices and falls in standards of living which were already poor.  Some 3 million people came out onto the streets of cities in France itself.  The protesters demanded that major employers and the state should provide assistance to people suffering from the crisis.  Peaceful demonstrations by day alternated with disorders by night, which caused observers to draw analogies between March 2009 and May 1968, when unprecedented riots by French youth resulted in the resignation of the then president and founder of the Fifth Republic, Charles de Gaulle.  His political successor, Nicolas Sarkozy, is not going to retire, especially as no such demand has been voiced on the turbulent streets of France, at least not yet.  However, the presidential entourage admits that a "small revolution" is under way in the country, and is led by different socialist forces.  It suffices to say that the approval rating of Olivier Besancon, 32-year-old leader of the ultra-leftist New Anti-Capitalist Party of France, which represents a Trotskyist movement, is comparable to that of the president.

A wave of civil riots spread across a number of the countries in East Asia which had thrived over the last couple of decades in their glory as "Asian tigers".  However, the crisis has noticeably spoiled their reputations and, according to the World Bank's assessments, countries like China, Japan and South Korea will be hardest hit by the recession.  And although these forecasts are yet to be tested, symptoms of the increasing influence of leftist ideas in the region manifested themselves in Thailand, where people came out onto the streets with portraits of the legendary Che Guevara.

And on the continent which half a century ago gave birth to the phenomenon of Che as a symbol of the international socialist movement, that is, Latin America, the socialists' "reply to Chamberlain" was the victory of left-wing forces in the presidential election in Salvador.  The triumph of Mauricio Funes, the candidate of the Farabundo Marti, who used slogans about combating social injustice, broadened the territory of the "Red belt", where socialists have come to power, which now effectively includes the majority of Latin American countries.

In the mean time, leftist demands are not restricted to demands for changes in their own countries from a capitalist system which has tarnished its reputation by yielding to the latest economic crisis.  They also call for reforms to the existing world order, which some leaders of developed countries also support.

The right in retreat?

The landmark event in global politics was the election of Democrat Barack Obama as US president - his rival in the presidential race, Republican John McCain, called him "socialist."  This "curse" was of course not a very accurate description of Obama's policy, but it is quite a symbolic manifestation of the attitude of US big business, which McCain represented in the election, towards any attempt to introduce more or less tight controls over the economy.  It is not surprising that neoliberals describe Barack Obama's plan for the stimulation of the US economy, which had suffered severe blows from the bankruptcy of two of the largest mortgage companies and investment banks, as "neo-Sovietization", because it envisages tighter controls and regulatory functions for the state.

In the mean time, the European countries which allocated a total of 2 trillion euro for intense financial therapy, went beyond "strict measures" and allowed the greatest extent of state intervention in the economy in the history of capitalism, proposing the idea of reforming the entire international economy.  "We believe that all financial markets and their participants should be regulated and monitored," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

However, the call for "reforms" which we hear from Western politicians is different from the demands of leaders of the developing world who insist on the "death of capitalism."  From the point of view of many Europeans, it is the idea of a free market, but not capitalism as such, which has exhausted itself.  The same Nicolas Sarkozy mentioned the fiasco of the laissez-faire system, which implies the principle of state non-intervention in economic processes, but at the same time he did not consider the demise of capitalism, limiting himself to statements about the need to reform the rules of operation of the capitalist economy.  "This is our last chance.  We want to create a new system."  Although he proposed to "start rebuilding capitalism from scratch to make it more ethical," the French leader proposed to create "a capitalism of enterprise, on which the financial system will be based."  He thereby conveyed the idea of transforming liberal capitalism into state capitalism.

However, the "golden billion" countries will find it difficult to persuade the rest of the world of the expediency of preserving "Western" capitalism because the Euroatlantists' model is viewed by many as an attempt to perpetuate the domination of imperialism and of the United States.

Sharing the point of view of people who ask whether or not the "international economy is fair," Angela Merkel said that the "United States acted irresponsibly towards all international markets when it allowed the largest banks and financial institutions to work without sufficient state controls."

The Head of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, prominent European politician and former Italian prime minister, speaks openly in favour of a "cardinal revision of international economic rules, the creation of a new world economic order, which should be multipolar."  Having urged a revision of the "balance of power between the dollar and other currencies, beginning with the euro," Prodi supported the development of a system in which "everyone plays by the rules and observes international agreements."

Russia and China, which position themselves as independent poles of power in global politics and economy, openly talk about the need for change in the international financial architecture.  They blame the crisis first and foremost on the United States, which "printed money at will and acquired goods and services," whereas the majority of countries are sidelined from control of the international economy.

But no matter how the debate between the supporters of capitalism and socialism ends, one thing is clear:  globalization will not stay on the same course.  Changes which are gathering steam - be it in the field of tightening state control over the economy or the introduction of different models of socialist governance - will be among the important consequences of the global crisis.