CONSERVATIVES AGAINST REFORMISTS

On 17 March, Iran's former president Moh-ammad Khatami, the main rival of Mahmud Ahmadinezhad in the 12 June presidential elections in the Islamic Republic, dropped out of the race. He explained his decision by his desire to avoid a split among the reformists and expressed his support for Mir-Hoseyn Musavi, the prime minister in 1981-89. Thus, Khatami let it be known that he is not going to quit politics, and on the contrary, will help the supporters of the reformist camp.

As for Musavi, he has already announced his intention to pursue Khatami's policy if he wins the elections. According to Musavi, the country needs reforms that will lead to "revival and return to principles".

The second contender for the presidency from the reformists, the former speaker of parliament, Mehdi Karrubi, urged his supporters to close ranks and map out a common strategy. Khatami had pointed out earlier that Karrubi and Musavi are not going to get in each other's way in the elections. Observers believe that one of them will drop out of the race by the day of voting.

Many experts think that the reformists have some chances to return to power as the positions of Mahmud Ahmadinezhad, who represents the conservatives and radical Islamists, are weakening. According to various media reports, Ahmadinezhad is supported by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i and most of the country's clerical leadership. However, even in the religious camp, the position of the incumbent Iranian president cannot be described as unquestionable. Nor is it known what attitude Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i has to the incumbent president.

Trust in Ahmadinezhad has been especially strongly undermined among the poor strata of the country's population who first supported him for his promise to honestly distribute oil dollars. But Ahmad-inezhad failed to improve the country's economy. Moreover, it was strongly affected by the crisis last year. According to some information, the rate of inflation in Iran has now reached 30 per cent, while the level of unemployment is incredibly high. The country still has a huge foreign debt. Moreover, paradoxical as it may seem, the Islamic Republic, which is a major oil producer, is suffering from a petrol crisis since the oil-refining industry, which needs investments and new technologies, is not developing in the country. The situation is worsened by the fact that the international community has imposed economic and political sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran because of its refusal to end its nuclear programme. Ahmadinezhad himself is known as a populist who makes fine-sounding but empty statements. For example, one such example is his constant calls to wipe Israel off the map. As we said above, to all appearances, not everyone inside Iran's ruling circles is delighted with the scandalous image of the Iranian president in the international arena. Tehran has in fact been isolated by the West, which reduces its geopolitical manoeuvrability.

So, it is no accident that rumours have been going round the country that Ahmadinezhad is a Jew. Some media report that the source of these rumours is a blog by Mehdi Khazali, the son of conservative Ayatollah Abu al-Qasam Khazali who officially supports the incumbent president. Mehdi Khazali claimed that Mahmud Ahmadinezhad is hiding his Jewish origin and is trying to prove to everyone that he is a fervent Muslim by attacking Israel and the Jews all the time. According to the blogger, the president's real surname is Saborjan; he was born in Aradan, a native region for most of Iranian Jews… As it were, no comment.

Meanwhile, returning to the reformist camp, it must be noted that their weakness is that they are disunited. Moreover, experts point out that they are in a minority in the theocratic hierarchy and have very few representatives in parliament and in regions of the country. Currently, the main issue for the reformists is whether Musavi and Karrubi will be able to get enough support from the voters and whether Khatami's withdrawal from the presidential race will play into the hands of Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Even if we suppose that Karrubi really drops out of the race in the future and Khatami gives comprehensive support to Musavi, his chances of victory will remain uncertain anyway.

On the one hand, Khatami's decision seems substantiated. If the reformists had several worthy candidates at once, it would be difficult to achieve success, though Khatami's supporters still do not understand his decision and think that he has to nominate his candidacy again. A former member of parliament, Yadollah Eslami, said that the ex-president seems a more attractive choice for the reformist camp because he has an excellent understanding of the "realities of society". However, not everything is so simple. It must be remembered that Khatami was president for two terms - from 1997 to 2005, and in principle, that period was remembered by its relative economic stability and comparatively greater personal freedom. Some people think that in terms of reforms in social and political life, Khatami did very little and lost many of his supporters for this reason. In any case, we should not forget that the crisis of confidence in Khatami has already brought about a victory for conservatives.

On the other hand, if Khatami becomes president with such "luggage", as the West expects, and launches a policy to improve relations with the West and the EU, it will be difficult to cope with unavoidable dissatisfaction with his policy. Britain's Times said that during the rally to mark the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Khatami was met with slogans of "Death to Khatami" and "We don't want a pro-American government".

In any case, Khatami was ready for victory earlier. He was going to "keep all the promises he had given to the people" and issued appeals for political liberalization and for the modernization of the economy. Of course, Khatami's slogans which called for "a dialogue of civilizations" do not suit the clerical circles at all, because this means a U-turn from the policy of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeyni.

At the same time, Khatami enjoys support from a number of clerics who criticize Ahmadinezhad, for example, Bayat Sandshani. Last summer Sandshani harshly criticized the president in an interview with the Financial Times Deutchland, saying that he does not respect the people's will and poses a great danger to the country. Ahmadinezhad was also accused of illegally strengthening the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which can now interfere in politics and even in the economy. Bayat Sandshani called on Iranian liberal reformist politicians to join efforts to beat Ahmadinezhad in the 2009 elections.

However, whatever some representatives of the Iranian clergy say, the religious leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamene'i, who decides all state issues (Velayat-e Faqih) and supported Ahmadinezhad earlier, will have the final say. At this level, undesirable candidates are eliminated quite simply - with the help of the Guardians Council (the supreme authority in the country) which decides whether presidential hopefuls comply with the requirements of the constitution and Islam. The council has 12 members six of whom are appointed with the consent of Ali Khamene'i. For example, according to the head of the electoral commission under the Iranian Ministry of the Interior, Kamran Daneshj, this year the registration of presidential candidates will begin on 5 May and last four days.

Thus, Musavi is in the centre of attention right now. In 1981-89, under the then president Ayatollah Khamene'i, he was Iran's prime minister. Musavi left his post not as a result of intrigues or a scandal, but following constitutional reforms - he was the last prime minister. In 1989, the post of prime minister was abolished. The former head of the Iranian cabinet behaved with credit during the harsh years of the Iran-Iraq war - even then the country's economy was better than now thanks to his efforts. In 1989, Musavi resigned and almost disappeared from political life for two decades. His current appearance was a kind of surprise. The former prime minister is now a member of the Assembly of Experts, an influential consultative body under Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i. Musavi seems a much more suitable figure for the political and religious elites of Iran rather than Khatami. Inside the fundamentalist camp, there are even people who regard Mir-Hoseyn Musavi as their own man because he was known as a supporter of tough Islamic rule in the past. Musavi is noted for his criticism of the economic policy of the country's current leadership, which probably suits the clerics as well. Even the fundamentalists cannot but understand that the Iranian economy needs modernization, especially as against the background of the world crisis and falling oil prices, the toughening of financial-economic sanctions and the expansion of international isolation may be devastating for the country. Meanwhile, it is quite interesting that the USA has sent Tehran a clear message about its readiness to start a dialogue. During the recent Novruz celebrations in Iran, the local media reported Barack Obama's video address to the Iranian people, offering peace. The USA understands that the further course of American-Iranian relations will depend on who wins the presidential elections in Iran - the reformists or the conservatives. Washington analysts have probably taken account of the lesson that the hard line of the George Bush administration with regard to Iran only strengthened the power of the clerical conservatives, which allowed the mayor of Tehran, Mahmud Ahmadinezhad, to win the previous presidential elections.

However, we should also take account of such a foreign factor as Russia, which the USA, to all appearances, may want to use as a mediator in possible talks with Iran. But then, it turns out that for the time being, it is in Moscow's interest to have the conservatives in power in the Islamic Republic. It is possible that once relations between Tehran and Washington normalize, and this is more likely under a president from the reformist circles, Russia will simply lose its Iranian trump cards in its geopolitical games with the USA.