AT GUNPOINT BEFORE QUIET CANNONS

The Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip is now over. But there is still no question of a lasting peace in the Middle East. Further escalation of the military confrontation can be prevented only by the determination of the conflicting sides and the whole international community to achieve a long-awaited accord on the Holy Land.

Mirages of victory

The three-week armed confrontation in the Gaza Strip ended with Israel and Hamas accepting an Egyptian cease-fire plan. Peace was secured as most of the international community condemned the consequences of the Israeli military operation which claimed more than one thousand Palestinian lives. US Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon declared the number of casualties to be "unacceptably high". Israel's actions even drew criticism from Washington, which always stands up for Tel Aviv. The USA preferred to abstain during the latest UN discussions on the situation in the Middle East, which, in fact, allowed the Security Council to adopt a resolution requiring an immediate end to the hostilities in Gaza.

Various international organizations accuse Israel of using prohibited weapons during military operation Cast Lead. Israel was reported to have used "white phosphorus" which, according to international law, must not be used in densely-populated areas such as the territory of the Palestinian enclave. The well-known Norwegian cardiologist Erik Fosse also accused Israel of using so-called DIME (Dense Inert Metal Explosive) - which leaves numerous point marks on the body of the victim, causes internal bleeding and has a carcinogenic effect.

Israel announced a cease-fire on 18 January - on the 21st day of the operation. However, Hamas militants continued their rocket strikes on Israeli cities, almost forcing Tel Aviv to turn away from the "path of peace". In response, Israel carried out air strikes on the extremists, after which Operation Cast Lead officially ended. Retaining the right to "react appropriately" to air strikes on its cities, Israel withdrew its military forces from the Gaza Strip within three days, which was one of the conditions of the cease-fire. In turn, Islamist radicals also expressed their readiness to cease firing for a year if the Israeli troops left Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that the operation's mission had been achieved: "Serious damage was inflicted on Hamas, and its ability to shell Israel has been considerably curtailed."  Nevertheless, it is clear that, when beginning the operation, Israel looked for greater success, as Israeli Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni said in the first days of Cast Lead that the purpose was to put an end to Hamas rule in the Strip. However, the campaign in Gaza more closely resembled the botched Israeli war with the Lebanese Hezbollah movement in 2006, when Israel failed to achieve the goals it had set itself - to defeat the Islamist radicals and regain captive Jewish soldiers. It is no surprise that the Israeli opposition described the decision to suspend the operation as a crime against the Jewish people and a betrayal of the Israeli defence army (Tsahal) since "Hamas had not been defeated yet".

In view of such accusations, the future of the ruling coalition, and especially of Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni (of the Kadima centrist party) and Defence Minister Ehud Barak (from the Avoda Labour party), looks quite uncertain. It will be clarified during the parliamentary elections scheduled for 10 February in Israel.

Meanwhile, Hamas is celebrating a "historic victory" in its three-week confrontation with Israeli troops. However, this claim is also far from true as the war only aggravated the desperate situation of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, the radicals need just such an interpretation; it justifies their very existence as a political force ruling the Palestinian people.

Conflict "realities"

The Islamic resistance movement Hamas (Harakat al-Muqawwama al-Islamiyya in Arabic), which was established in 1987, came to power in the Gaza Strip after Israel's former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to withdraw Tsahal forces three years ago and closed Jewish settlements there. Hamas, which operates with the aim of destroying Israel and establishing a Palestinian Islamic republic throughout the territory of Palestine, raised a rebellion against the Fath movement and its leader Mahmud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian National Authority. Palestine has in fact split into two parts: the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, with a population of 1.5 million, and the Fath-controlled West Bank, with a population of 2.5 million. Israel is located between the two parts of Palestine, and as long as there is no single Palestinian leadership, Israel apparently has no-one to talk to. Any agreement signed by Israel and the Palestinian Authority will not be recognized by the Hamas radicals.

The movement aims to create a Palestinian state throughout the territory which belonged to Palestine before the establishment of Israel in 1948 and which shrank slightly following the first Palestinian-Israeli war in 1948-49. One of Hamas' demands is Israel's withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967 (the West Bank). Following a path of armed struggle for the liberation of Palestinian lands, the movement even uses terrorist methods such as "suicide bombers". Thus Hamas opposes a long-term peace - a peace agreement with Israel may deprive it of its goal, which would render the organization redundant. The tactic of launching missile strikes on Israeli cities should be seen in this context. Hamas does not consider it to be aggression because it believes that Israel started the aggression by occupying areas which were supposed to be incorporated into the Palestinian state according to UN resolutions (Security Council Resolution 242 of 1967 urged Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories).

Israel needs Hamas' agreement to a long-term peace, which suggests giving up the armed fight. By carrying out strikes on cities in southern Israel, Islamic radicals are actually giving Israel an excuse to attack Palestine. The desire of the Jewish state to put an end to Hamas rule in Gaza arises from its strategic plan to destroy an adversary who insists on Israel's withdrawal from the occupied territories. For Israel itself, these territories are the fruits of victory in wars which it believes were unleashed by Arabs. But occupation is always illegal, regardless of its motivation, not to mention the fact that it kindles hatred in the consciousness of those neighbours whose territories were seized. So, by continuing the occupation, Israel condemns itself to life without security and, for 60 years now, the Palestinians have raised more and more rebellions, which do not allow Israelis to sleep easily in their beds.

One of the weightiest reasons for the failure of the Middle East settlement is not simply the diametric opposition of the Palestinians and the Israelis. The problem is that the world community already accepts de facto reality. All settlement plans, including the so-called "Road Map" drawn up by the "quartet" of mediators (UN, USA, Russia and EU) require Israel to retreat to the borders that existed before the six-day war in 1967, including Eastern Jerusalem. Thus Palestine claims that no-one in the world remembers that the only legal borders of Israel are those confirmed by the UN General Assembly in 1947. But the world view may also be understood, because everyone believes that the restoration of those borders is a task incompatible with current "reality" - everyone but the Palestinians and that part of the Arab world that has not forgotten about Palestine's location on the world map. Palestine regards this as the main source of the protracted conflict. Nevertheless, Hamas should not forget that no goal, even a good one, justifies any means - the world condemns any form of terrorism.

The burden of suffering

The legal nihilism which most of the world community displays with regard to the Middle East crisis does not negate the obvious fact that various states and international organizations often play a decisive role in foiling further escalation of the military standoff in the Holy Land. Specifically, Israel's decision to end Operation Cast Lead was influenced by the diplomatic efforts of France and Egypt which developed the cease-fire plan. Nor was it hard to notice that the three-week war between Israel and Hamas ended just before the inauguration of the 44th US president. Ehud Olmert's government decided to withdraw Tsahal units from the Gaza Strip, saying that it did not want to create complications for the new president, Barack Obama, especially as he had not expressed any desire to ignore reports about the numerous civilian casualties in Palestine.

Meanwhile, Tel Aviv's decision to end the military operation allowed it to emerge from the crisis with much less damage to its international image than expected. Israel even managed to agree with the United States and the European Union on joint counteraction against a possible rearmament of Hamas, whose military potential was severely damaged by the recent hostilities. Israel also reached agreement with Egypt on cooperation to foil arms smuggling to Gaza, principally from Egyptian territory. It is no accident that Tsipi Livni announced the gradual formation of an international "anti-Hamas coalition". According to the press secretary of the Israeli government, Tzvi Hefetz, the free world understands that Hamas is acting as "the vanguard of dark and extremist terrorist forces" on orders from Iran.

The Iran factor is becoming more evident in the geopolitical mosaic of the Middle East. It made itself felt almost until the last day of the Israeli operation: it was under pressure from Tehran that Hamas initially rejected the Egyptian peace plan. Moreover, due to the existence of the Iran-Hamas alliance, a number of Arab countries exercised restraint in responding to the consequences of Israeli strikes on Gaza. Hamas' development, which is closely connected to Iran's growing role in the region, threatens the interests of such countries as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The latter initiated a policy aimed at a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict which was approved by the League of Arab States in 2002. As for Egypt, while addressing the economic summit which opened in Kuwait on 19 January, its leader Husni Mubarak clearly hinted at the destructive nature of Hamas-Iranian cooperation. Speaking about "some forces" causing a split in the Arab world, Mubarak clearly let it be known that Iran was prompting the Palestinian radicals into confrontation with Israel. The Egyptian president also spoke about the fallacy of returning to an epoch when Arabs refused to deal with Israel.

Meanwhile, the truce in the Middle East hangs by a thread. This is clear to all forces involved in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The slightest aggression from one side will give the other a reason to "respond" and the region may drown in the blood of innocent victims once again. Specifically, Israel does not rule out a repeat ground operation in the Gaza Strip, which will be carried out if Hamas continues with its rocket strikes.

The danger of hostilities resuming in Palestine requires the immediate development of a substantial approach to the settlement of problems in the Middle East, including the status of Jerusalem, the border issues, Palestinian refugees and Jewish settlements on the West Bank. The only way out of the situation, which currently seems hopeless, is to create a Palestinian state, but mutual concessions and a firm desire for peace on both sides are needed for this to happen. Otherwise, another 60 years will pass and the Holy Land will still be moaning under the burden of human suffering and crimes.