VASSAL STATE

The US newspaper Roll Call has published an article by Jason Katz, the head of Tool Shed Group, which counsels foreign governments, NGOs and corporations in the spheres of strategic communications and politics, where the author analyzes the official policy of the United States in the South Caucasus region. He notes that the United States should pay more attention to relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia rather than with Armenia as the latter has joined the Eurasian Union. In this regard, Katz expresses surprise that some members of Congress actively promote the interests of Armenia among voters despite the national interests of the USA. Jason Katz expressed his ideas in more detail in conversation with R+.

- Armenia is trying to show that the situation of isolation, in which it is, doesn't affect it very much, which allows Yerevan to continue pursuing a hostile policy towards its neighbours. Where can this policy lead them?

- Armenia goes to great lengths to portray itself to the world and have the world believe that it is a strong (militarily, politically and economically), independent and sovereign nation. Armenia seems to be proud to the point of delusion. Further, Armenia goes to great lengths to promote itself as the "good guy" in a righteous fight against Azerbaijan and Turkey. The reality is this cannot be further from the truth. Armenia is landlocked and isolated…importantly, Armenia's own policies have isolated her from one of the economically fastest growing regions of the world. Further, due to Armenia's abject weakness, it has chosen a policy that turns away from the West and all the West stands for and opportunities it offers in favour of Russia and Iran. Armenia today can only be described as a Russian vassal state with close ties to Iran. As goes Moscow, so goes Yerevan. Points on record… Armenia hosts the Russian military and their bases and has prolonged the agreement on the bases until 2044.

The Russian military even patrols Armenia's borders and airspace. More importantly, Armenia has all but completely abandoned Euro-Atlantic integration, relations with the EU, etc., all in favour of the Russian-sponsored Eurasian Customs Union…

Several years ago, Armenia's economy, following years of abject corruption and mismanagement, crashed. Russia came to the rescue and bailed out the nation's economy. Armenia's self-imposed isolation from the progress, wealth and mainstreaming of the nations of the region has cost it its sovereignty. Concurrently, Armenia devotes much time and "PR power" to hiding the fact that its foreign policy has caused it to be isolated from all but their own diaspora.

- On the other hand, what dividends will Armenia get if it gives up its traditional policy and changes its line?

- A change in the policies that has caused Armenia to become a vassal state and an economic and political failure demands a quantum shift.

This shift necessitates Armenia to extricate itself from Russia and Iran…not an easy choice on the foreign and domestic affairs menu. It would also necessitate Armenia giving up its erroneous claims to the Nagornyy Karabakh region of Azerbaijan or alternately withdrawing support for, as they call it, "a second Armenian state", a state doomed to failure from the start much like its proposed older brother. They should first and foremost understand and act as an independent nation with all the responsibilities this involves. It would also require detente and rapprochement with Turkey…this time a genuine and honest rapprochement.

- The dividends would be fabulous. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose nation and presidency are the lynch pins to perhaps all the wildly lucrative energy projects of the region, has indicated on many occasions that Armenia would have a share in these projects should they make this quantum shift. An important fact is that SOCAR, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, is the largest single taxpayer in the Republic of Georgia and even offered Armenia preference-based gas prices, should a normalization take place … an enviable position for a poverty-stricken and isolated nation like Armenia.

- So you suppose that some peace initiatives can really change the status quo in the Karabakh settlement without prompting Azerbaijan to use force?

- Recently, Mr Ali Hasanov, a high-ranking Azerbaijani official, reiterated President Aliyev oft-repeated statements that Azerbaijan hopes and works for a lasting peaceful solution. The Azerbaijanis have been trying to find lasting peace for the last two decades despite the country's territories being occupied and numerous international documents calling for immediate withdrawal of Armenian troops. Yet absent the outbreak of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan or real and serious action on the part of the US, the status quo is a fait accompli.

Who would win such a war is a question. This is why it is so important for the Minsk Group co-chairs to focus on changing the dangerous status quo.

- You touched on the subject of regional projects. The West has refrained from supporting the largest transport project in the region - the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway meant to connect Asia with Europe. How can you explain this position?

- Sadly, this was just another example of Armenian lobby pursuing its narrow special interests at the expense of America's strategic ones in the region. Fortunately, this has changed and US now firmly and vocally supports BTK.

- In recent years, several very promising formats of trilateral cooperation have emerged in our region: Azerbaijan-Turkey-Georgia, Azerbaijan-Turkey-Iran and Azerbaijan-Turkey-Turkme-nistan. At the same time, there are some signs of the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia cooperation format. Which of the formats seems more promising to you?

- From its very early days of independence, Azerbaijan has sought to take it rightful place as the energy hub of Eurasia and Central Asia. It makes sense, as Azerbaijan is located in the single most logical place in the map. In addition, Azerbaijan is, by far, the most consistently stable, Western friendly and business friendly nation. Of course, it doesn't hurt for the West, in particular the US to have more friends…ones who happen to be Muslim. I think it is clear that if the Azerbaijani leadership can sway Europe and the West to his strategic vision, Azerbaijan will grow to become the key node that enables Europe to enjoy energy security.