188 MINUTES OF DIRECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE

There will be no presidential elections until 2012. An economic pick-up is expected at the end of the second and third quarters next year, but most likely, it will drag on until spring 2010. This is probably the main thing that expects Russia in the short-term. The detailed forecast took 188 minutes - an absolute record of Vladimir Putin's live link-up with the country on 4 December. Putin's online link-up with the people had never lasted so long, even when he was president. This was Putin's seventh "direct link-up" with the country and his first as prime minister. Almost two thirds of Russians - 63 per cent - listened to him.

In response to citizens' questions, the prime minister spoke about everyone's difficulties and their global reasons. The prime minister clearly said that the authorities are ready to honour their social obligations and there are enough financial state reserves to prevent negative phenomena in the macroeconomy. "Russia has every chance of overcoming the world economic crisis with minimum losses, however, we must prepare for a difficult period caused by the crisis, including from a political point of view," Putin said.

The remark on the "political" consequences of the crisis means that the Russian authorities admit its possible "political implications" and are morally preparing for them.

The prime minister also promised that the government will not allow surges in the rate of the rouble. "Is the country printing new money? Absolute rubbish! And you should keep your savings in roubles," Vladimir Vladimirovich said, adding that everyone has the right of choice.

Meanwhile, the rouble is already feeling worse than other currencies. During the three hours of the live broadcast, the Russian prime minister did not say the word "devaluation". But on 12 December, the deputy minister of economic development, Andrey Klepach, said that Russia was in a recession. He said that an economic decline had been observed over the last six months, and most likely, it will last longer than two quarters.

According to official statistics, in October alone up to 0.5 million Russians lost their jobs, while the total number of unemployed Russians reached 4.6 million. It is clear that the peak of this process is expected in 2009.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia reported a planned cut in the volume of the country's international reserves. From 28 November to 5 December, Russia's reserves slumped from 454.9 billion dollars to 437 billion, i.e. by 18 billion dollars. Thus, "the safety cushion", which Putin himself had been preparing for many years, is continuing to shrink at an astronomic speed.

The prime minister was forced to admit indirectly that unlike other developed countries, the Russian state is living on price markups, and therefore, it is extremely monopolized not just in party building, but also in the economy. This means that it is not really manageable in market conditions and rests on the shoulders of citizens.

Petrol prices are not falling so quickly? What can you do? The same Vladimir Putin admitted that "to some extent, this was the policy of the state". The oil sector is also trying to survive the crisis, trying to maintain at least some of its revenues at the expense of the domestic consumer. Many questions were put to Putin about job losses and the impossibility of paying off debts to banks (first of all, mortgages). Since these goals are contradictory, Putin's position was quite balanced. He first criticized and then supported banks, saying that the financial stability of most Russians will depend on their wellbeing.

As was the case during his presidency, Vladimir Putin saved the most interesting bit for dessert, i.e. till after the live broadcast. He assured journalists that he will not return to the post of president until 2012, guaranteeing the impossibility of extraordinary presidential elections. Putin also promised that he will remain in the post of prime minister until the end of his term, but did not clarify whether he was going to run in the elections of 2012. "I think that everyone should do their job in their own place. There is no need for a fuss about what is going to happen in 2012. We shall see what we shall see," the prime minister said, allowing some Russian media to conclude that "Putin does not rule out that he may return to the presidential chair in 2012". Incidentally, quite a few experts consider Putin's direct link-up to be not so much the prime minister's contact with the population as a speech by the country's political leader.

Putin was also asked whether he was afraid that his popularity may fall because of the crisis. "If you keep thinking that something is falling, then nothing will ever rise," the prime minister joked, promising that we will overcome the difficulties this time, too, as we did in early 2000 when the situation was also difficult. Asked about his possible departure from the government, he said: "There is no need for that yet. I have never run away from problems."

Meanwhile, this was the first time that Vladimir Putin addressed the nation not just as prime minister, but also as the leader of the ruling One Russia Party.

The "direct link-up" did not reflect purely "Medvedev" subjects or initiatives: amendments to the constitution, political reforms, judicial reforms, the fight against corruption and so on. We can draw the conclusion that the participants in the tandem are splitting their functions. Putin himself assessed his tandem with President Medvedev as "very effective".

The subject of foreign policy was quite traditional, though the level of toughness with regard to the USA was minimal. Only occasionally, did the Russian prime minister resort to harshness typical of him, for example, in his remarks about one or two best places for Mikhail Saakashvili, gas supplies to Ukraine and a multi-party system which "the Russian Federation needs like a forest rabbit needs a new laser automatic braking gear".

Putin blamed the financial crisis on the USA again, but continued his line aimed at establishing relations with the Barack Obama administration. "We very much hope that there will be positive changes in relations with the USA, and such signals are now coming in," Putin said. "We see that NATO no longer hurries to accept Georgia and Ukraine or to deploy radar systems in Poland." Moreover, he said, experts close to the US president-elect are making statements that there was no need to hurry to deploy missile defence systems in Europe. In this way, Putin in fact named conditions for improving relations: freezing NATO expansion and solving the problem of deploying US missile defence systems. Putin also avoided any aggressive statements, and even conversely, denied such rumours (for example, about the possibility of deploying military bases in Cuba and Venezuela).

He also touched on the subject of gas supplies to Ukraine. Putin warned that there will be no cheap gas, and if there is no contract, gas supplies will be cut. The subject of Georgia received the most emotional and extensive response. Putin described Saakashvili's actions against South Ossetia as "a crime", drawing a parallel with Saddam Hussein. Thus, the Georgian president still remains a totally unacceptable figure for Russia. According to some media reports, initially it was planned to organize a "live link-up" with South Ossetia. However, this decision was later reconsidered. To all appearances, the Russian authorities are trying not to exacerbate this subject again as they need to normalize their relations with the West.

As a result, the main goal was achieved: there is a conviction that Putin is not going to resign, which he confirmed quite openly, denying reports about any extraordinary elections.

This way or another, only the person who wins the elections of 2012 will be able to use the "reasonably long" presidential tenure. By that time, the crisis will end and economic growth will begin. For this reason, voters will vote not with their hearts and not even with their minds, but depending on the weight of their purses. And it is quite understandable that it was exactly Vladimir Putin who came to calm people down. After all, he is not a "technical" premier. It is Putin whom most Russians see as a real and active leader.