IS THERE OIL AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE CASPIAN SEA?

Oil and gas geology is a branch of geology which can be defined as the "science of searching for hydrocarbon deposits," although geologists often work on the development of such deposits long after they are discovered. In Azerbaijan, this sector began to develop in the 19th century.

Perhaps it is precisely this rich experience which enables the oil geologists of today to make accurate forecasts and calculations which then earn the nation multimillion-dollar revenues without even resorting to the high-tech equipment which is available to their colleagues in other oil-producing countries. And Azerbaijani geologists do their job so well that even the captious international academic community has to recognize the achievements of our nation's scholars.

The need for fundamental research

As an example, Akif Narimanov, chief geologist and deputy general director of the Azneft Production Association of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan, whose studies have helped to discover many oil and gas deposits, both on dry land and in the Caspian, has been  bestowed with the special award of the American Oil Geologists' Association. The award will be presented to him in June 2009 during the annual conference and expo of the association, which will take place in Denver, Colorado.

In terms of its significance, it is tantamount to a Nobel Prize or an Olympic medal. The fact that among the people receiving the award were prominent scientists like Conrad and Marcel Schlumberger ,for their invention of the electric log, Harrison Schmitt, the first geologist to walk on the moon and study its geology and others, proves just how prestigious this award is; it is given annually to just two prominent researchers of the Earth's depths.  The Azerbaijani scholar received the award in recognition of his key role in the promotion, development and support of scientific research of the South Caspian basin and for his contribution to the discovery of the most important oil and gas deposits in the Caspian Sea. It needs to be said that he is the first Turkic, and second CIS, scholar to be given this award.

Narimanov is one those rare scholars who successfully combine scholarly research and practical work. It was with his personal participation that the largest deposits, Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli were discovered; they now earn our country millions of dollars. The question is, can we expect more discoveries of this size in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea?

In Narimanov's words, Azerbaijani geologists today are busy not so much with conducting fundamental research, which is needed to discover new deposits, as establishing the exact amount of resources in those already discovered and finding new layers of hydrocarbons in them. And even the exploitation of the latest achievements of geological science in prospecting for oil and gas cannot rule out the factor of luck. The ratio of unsuccessful wells prospected to wells yielding at least small streams of oil or gas is nine to one on average. In addition, only one prospected well in 70 helps discover a commercially profitable deposit. This is why only large oil companies operate geological services, while smaller companies usually hire oil geologists as consultants.

Even the large companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron and others made mistakes, although they were certain that drilling into the deposits in the Caspian was profitable. Drilling is a very expensive operation, which is why no geologist would undertake to predict where a well should be drilled without thorough analysis and in-depth research. "I admit, we lack fundamental studies today because the resources of the developed deposits are being gradually depleted and we have nothing to replace them with," Mr. Narimanov said in an interview with R+.

The mysterious Mesozoic

Unfortunately, the capabilities of Azerbaijani geologists are limited today - the decline in this field during the 1990s still has an effect. During this period, our Western colleagues made great progress in research and it will take us years and huge financial resources to catch them up. In addition, there is a shortage of new specialists: training them - which is, incidentally, what the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan is doing now - also takes time.

To maintain high levels of oil production in Azerbaijan in the future, we need to find new oil-saturated layers now.  "It may be said with certainty today that we will not discover another gigantic oil deposit of the size of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in the Pliocene layers in Azerbaijan (there are still possibilities that we will find gas deposits). This does not mean that such deposits cannot be found in other layers, say, Mesozoic. But our knowledge of these layers is rudimentary," Azneft's chief geologist admitted.

However, at present Azerbaijani geologists have some idea of the Mesozoic or, to be more precise, there is some knowledge of the upper layers of these strata.  "I say with full responsibility that it holds no promise from the point of view of oil production. But we know very little about the remaining two strata, the middle and lower, and there is still a chance of finding something new. Because, when we have prospected for oil, and especially for gas, we have encountered situations, albeit very seldom, when we found hydrocarbons of unknown quality and thermal gas from deeper strata. But it is very difficult to look for these types of deposits in a consistent manner," the researcher said.

Incidentally, it was Narimanov who came up with a theory of the formation of oil deposits in the South Caspian basin - the result of 25 years' work. "All deposits discovered in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea were associated with sands deposited by the Volga river over millions of years. There are shoestring deposits in these types of sands in other regions of the world. Searching for these shoestrings is an additional subject for research. In the Soviet period, we traced the ancient riverbed of the Volga to the Abseron Peninsula, but failed to establish how far it extended from there. At BP's request, a group of researchers, which I headed, conducted a detailed study of the Guneshli deposit for the first time and found several shoestrings. We are still working in this direction. This is something completely new for our geology," he said.

Immediate prospects

As for the near future, seismic surveillance is under way to study subsurface resources to pave the way for new wells. For example, after some preparatory work lasting several years, drilling finally started on the new Cahandar deposit on the border with Georgia. We have drilled about 3,000 metres already and are very hopeful that it will be successful, although the risk is high, of course, because the area has not been explored before," Narimanov said.

In addition, we are currently establishing the capacity of the new small deposit called West Abseron - our preliminary assessment is 10 million tons. A project for the development of the deposit will be written after that. "Next year, we will resume drilling at the Atasgah deposit, we plan to start several wells at the Amirxanli deposit where we have not drilled for a long time, but have now found reasons to keep working. We are very hopeful that the results will be good."

Azerbaijani geologists pin great hopes for the discovery of new gas deposits on the Bulla Deniz, Umid and Babak deposits. The estimate of recoverable resources of liquid hydrocarbons in the Umid-Babak sector is 100 million tons. At the peak of extraction, 14-15 billion cubic metres of gas a year will be produced. It is expected that the very first prospecting well will find a new deposit in the Umid field, but it will take at least five years to put into effect new technology for the extraction of hydrocarbons there. After all, it will be the first underwater extraction project in the Caspian. This is quite expensive technology, requiring underwater robots etc., which is found quite rarely in the world.

"We will start drilling one well each at Bulla Deniz and Umid. The risk is high, but we were so certain that we would find major deposits that we decided to build a special platform instead of drilling from a floating drilling rig," Narimanov continued.

The work will continue at old deposits too: there is a chance of finding new strata using the new technology now available to the Azerbaijani geologists. The main goal is to delay the imminent period of reduced oil production and to extend Azerbaijan's high standing in the field of oil and gas exploration.