NEW CIRCUMSTANCES

The presidential elections are over in the USA. The Democrats won and Barack Obama has be-come the first black president in the country's history. Even current President George Bush de-scribed Obama's victory as a "triumph of American history", although the Republicans lost the election. What will this triumph give the world? What cardinal changes can be expected in White House policy? How will relations evolve with partners, competitors and enemies, of which the USA has a fair few? National governments, the media and analysts continue to ask themselves these and other questions. As for Azerbaijan, most observers agree that today's Azerbaijan is quite an important foreign policy partner and further relations between Washington and Baku will develop ever faster, whoever is in power in the USA. This is the opinion of the chief of Voice of America's Azerbaijani bureau, Bulud Mehmandarli. We asked him to comment on the out-come of the US elections and the future of American-Azerbaijani relations.

- Mr Mehmandarli, it would be interesting to hear your opinion on the elections in the USA. 

After eight years of government by the Republicans, and especially because of the Iraq war, most Americans did not hide their intention to vote for the Democrats. The recent, rapidly spreading economic crisis also complicated the situation for the Republicans. Although Sarah Palin's speeches and programmes, which the American press paid a great deal of attention to, led to some progress, this was just politics. It was asked how the Democrats would act if a similar crisis happened when they were in government. All this brought out about the Democratic victory. 

- What did Bush's government give America? Some experts think he made the country many enemies.

- The events of 11 September happened after Bush came to power. During his presidency a great deal of attention was focused on the fight against terror and the war in Iraq, on which a lot of money has been spent. Today many people in America recognize that the war in Iraq was a mis-take. Very many people on both sides died and millions became refugees. In this regard the Bush government cannot be considered successful. However, great success was achieved in combating terror, links that were lacking before were established between intelligence structures and their work was coordinated. A single database was set up into which all intelligence information flows. I also believe in Bush's attempts to find a fair solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, although it used to be thought that America supported Israel.

- What similarities and differences could you see between the presidential elections in the USA and Azerbaijan?

- The election campaign lasts a long time in America, unlike in Azerbaijan. It began two years ago and the battle heated up the closer election day came. During this period even an ordinary student can learn a lot in America - for example, study the problems of different states and the country's economy and foreign policy. I would say that two years ago Вarack Obama did not know perhaps even 10 per cent of what he knows now. The negative aspect of this is that some-times the candidates disclose unpleasant information about one another. It's not only parties that conduct the campaign, it's also independent groups defending them whom the parties do not pa-tronize - sometimes they even speak out against the groups, do not recognize them. For example, an independent group supporting McCain can spend millions on advertising that smears Obama. The law is powerless against this. There are organizations that spend 50 million dollars on nega-tive advertising. And these advertisements are very influential. 

- How will future relations develop between the new White House administration and Azerbaijan?

- I don't think anything will affect relations between these two countries, whoever comes to power. It is interesting that most Azerbaijanis living in America preferred the policy of McCain, as he knows the region better. He even spoke against Russia's aggression against Georgia. There is no doubt that if McCain had come to power, he would have taken a tougher position on Rus-sia, which could have been a positive factor for countries such as Azerbaijan, which Moscow is trying to bring into its sphere of influence. McCain is a politician close to Azerbaijan's position. However, Obama did visit Baku two years ago and is very familiar with the region. So, major changes in US policy in the region are not really to be expected. 

- Like previous Democratic candidates, on the eve of the election campaign Obama prom-ised the Armenian lobby to recognize the "Armenian genocide". How likely is this in US policy in the short term?

- This question has twice been close to resolution in Congress. I even expected it. However, something unexpected happened every time. The first time the president personally put pressure on Congress and the speaker of the House of Representatives postponed the bill on their own ini-tiative. The second time, the issue was included again on the agenda by Speaker Nancy Pelosi which prompted a stormy reaction in the press. However, when Pelosi realized that this should not be done and that it could harm the country's interests the question was closed again. A simi-lar threat may well arise again during Barack Obama's government. It is even possible that this bill will be passed one day. I don't think this depends on who - Republicans or Democrats - will be governing the USA, but more on the activity of the Armenian diaspora and Armenian-

Turkish relations. And if the progress in Armenian-Turkish relations continues, the Armenians may not raise this question again.

- Why does America need Azerbaijan?

- The USA has oil and energy interests in Azerbaijan. America would also like to see the devel-opment of democracy in the region which is also to Baku's advantage. In regions where the de-mocratization process is developing, there is more stability and economic progress.

- Why does Azerbaijan need America?

- For its investment opportunities, at least. Azerbaijan needs economic relations with the USA. Moreover, Azerbaijan is a country with a Western orientation. Although America is facing a bar-rage of criticism, it is still seen in the world as a symbol of democracy. America is ready to sup-port Azerbaijan in all areas - from education to election systems and the market economy. And Azerbaijan must make the most of this. Let's take exchange programmes as an example. Just imagine what experience Azerbaijanis in different professions gain in just a few visits to Amer-ica. It's true, of course, that in doing this America is promoting itself. But on the other hand, these training schemes have a positive effect on the business experience of Azerbaijanis attend-ing them.

- As one of the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, does the USA give sufficient sup-port to Azerbaijan's position in settling the Nagornyy Karabakh problem? 

- A year ago I asked Matthew Bryza, "America's position is clear, what do you yourself think?" He did not reply to my question and said nothing. You know, although thousands of Americans are well informed about Nagornyy Karabakh being part of Azerbaijan, about the hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees in their own land, about the fact that right is on Azerbaijan's side, for some reason this is not fully reflected in America's policy on the region.

- How does the level of information about Azerbaijan in America compare to previous years?

- After the events in Georgia the American press began to pay considerable attention to Azerbai-jan. Articles about energy issues and the threat to Azerbaijan were printed. Every week one or two conferences on the region were held in Washington, where Russian and US policy in the re-gion was discussed. More attention was paid to Azerbaijan, even though it was Georgia that was engulfed in war. I would also say that extensive analytical articles appeared in the local press about the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from the moment the first stretch was laid until it came into operation. The explosion on BTC during the Georgian events was also widely discussed, as was the extent to which this affected the oil price. People used to know about Azerbaijan only in relation to Armenia and this was because of the activity of the Armenian lobby on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. I think that Azerbaijan itself is also to blame for this. However, the situation has now changed. And Azerbaijan is not what it used to be. It has built itself up and now many people know about it.