"AMERICAN DREAM"

It can be said without exaggeration that on 4 November the American people made a historic choice. Not only because a black politician was elected president in what used to be a slave state which has only recently experienced racial clashes. The people of America, tired of the many failures of the Bush administration, most importantly the war in Iraq, and concerned with the financial crisis that has hit the country at the closing of the year, have now voted for change.

Change has been promised by the 47-year-old Democratic Party Senator Barack Hussein Obama, who defeated his opponent, Republican Party Senator John McCain, by a large margin. Obama got the upper hand even in such traditionally Republican states as Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Indiana. In a celebration speech before a huge crowd in Grand Park, Chicago, the president-elect reminded US citizens of the "American dream", saying that he was a graphic example of its realization.

Some say that Obama's appearance on the global political stage is the kind of miracle so eagerly sought by both Americans and people elsewhere in the world. This belief will help people to come through a time when news programmes consist mainly of reports about wars, acts of terror and natural calamities, when the dreams and hopes of many people have been crushed by a hurricane called "financial crisis". No wonder that 63 per cent of US voters said on 4 November that the economy was their biggest concern. As a result, most Americans opted for Obama rather than veteran fighter and "tough nut" John McCain.

"Obama-mania"

In the meantime, it would be interesting to draw a social and psychological portrait of those who voted Republican. Don't these people want change and don't they believe in a young and promising President? See for yourself. Only 43 per cent of white American voters voted for Obama (55 per cent for McCain). The racial factor was not crucial, but it did have a role to play. Obama was supported by 95 per cent of black voters and 67 per cent of America's Hispanic population, which is not a bad result at all. The age factor also played its part. The older the American voter, the higher the percentage of votes for the Republican candidate. For instance, young people aged between 18 and 24 had a strong preference for Obama. According to CNN, the ratio was 66 to 32 per cent. Preferences among voters above 40 gradually evened out, while the over-65s voted for McCain. As far as material well-being is concerned, this factor did not have a large bearing. This leads to the conclusion that the country which calls itself a "melting pot" of different nationalities and cultures can, and must have, a president such as Barack Obama. He did not, as some say, divide America in any way, but showed the unity of this country to maximum effect. People who have been to the USA at least once will understand what this means. No-one feels out-of-place in this country - this land receives everyone and gives everyone a chance. Barack Obama got his chance too.

In fact, Obama arouses no less admiration in Africa. World media observers say that genuine "Obama-mania" is unfolding on the black continent. The Africans are hoping that the new American President can help this poor continent. Kenya, where Obama's father comes from, declared a national holiday on the day that Barack Obama was pronounced winner. Portraits of the winner adorn bill-boards and vans in Kenya. A school and even a local beer have been named after Obama in the village of Kogello in the country's west, which is still home to one of Obama's elderly relatives. To celebrate their relative's success, Malik, step-brother of the 44-year-old US president-elect, has promised to slaughter a bull in accordance with local tradition.

Barack Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii. He lived in Indonesia with his mother and step-father for four years and then returned to the USA. In 1983, he graduated from Columbia University, majoring in International Relations and, in 1991, from Harvard Law School. He was engaged in legal practice, and worked for a charity group helping the poor. He was first elected to the US Senate in January 2005 (from the state of Illinois) becoming the only black senator and the fifth black legislator in the house in 150 years. He earned nationwide renown in 2004 after delivering a speech at the national Democratic convention in which he called for a change in political life. He also proclaimed a unified United States of America, rather than a "blue" or "red" one. The president-elect has no intention of backing down on this principle, either. He is even expected to appoint a Republican to one of the key national security posts - the US Secretary of State or the Secretary of Defence. Obama's former opponent John McCain has pledged to do everything in his power to help the new leader in the White House.

And there is much to help with. The new president has inherited a multitude of domestic and foreign problems. However, there are reasons to believe that Obama will cope with the challenges with dignity, because he is being described as one of the most intellectual US presidents of late and, as a matter of fact, is being compared to famous predecessors Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy. 

Obama has chosen not to hold lengthy celebrations of his victory and has got down to business. Obama's transitional administration staff, led by a former White House chief-of-staff in the Clinton Administration, John Podesta, is already preparing for the hand-over of power to the new president and key appointments to the new government.

It is believed that Obama's most serious task will be to save the national economy (the federal budget deficit alone constitutes around $1 trillion). As far as foreign policy is concerned, it will be dominated by several familiar issues: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, the Arab-Israeli conflict, China, South America, as well as relations with Russia, which includes the situation in Georgia (and in the South Caucasus as a whole) and Ukraine, the deployment of NATO's missile defence system in East Europe, the fight for Caspian energy resources and many other issues.

"Caribbean crisis" in East Europe 

It is worthy of note that some experts, while comparing Obama to John Kennedy, are predicting another "Caribbean crisis". Observers are very concerned about the progress of US-Russian relations under the new US President. Some even think that Russia, not Iraq or Afghanistan, may become the first crisis area for Obama.

Well, these people may be right - at least in the early post-election period, relations between Moscow and Washington have become one of the most widely-discussed international topics. Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev has contributed much here.

On 5 November, while the whole world was cheering Barack Obama, the Russian president, who took office on 7 May 2008, made his first address to the federal assembly in which he castigated the USA. "I think that the idea which emerged after the break-up of the Soviet Union, that their opinion was the only accurate and unquestionable one, has eventually led the US administration into major economic blunders," Medvedev said. He also promised that Russia would not retreat in the Caucasus. 

However, the most impressive aspect of the "international" component of the Russian president's speech was his statement that Moscow was going to deploy a new missile defence system with Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad and to cancel the planned removal of three rocket regiments quartered in Kazelsk. Further, the same western region is expected to be used for radio-electronic suppression of the US missile-defence facilities to be deployed in East Europe. Medvedev emphasized that Russia would not be dragged into an arms race.

It is obvious that the timing of the Kremlin's vehement criticism of the US administration's policies shortly after the US election was not coincidental. It may be said that Moscow sent a "message" to Barack Obama. What remains unclear is whether Moscow wanted to check his reaction or push the American leader to an advance dialogue.

The situation is not entirely straightforward - if the new White House administration abandons its missile defence system plans, it may give the impression that Moscow has got the upper hand, while if it follows the line of George Bush's administration, it runs the risks of further exacerbating the already precarious relations with Russia. We recall that interceptor missiles are to be deployed in Poland, and radar, as part of the US missile defence system, in the Czech Republic. Washington insists that these measures are intended to track any nuclear threat from "pariah countries", principally Iran. Russia, however, treats the US plans as a threat to its national security, because the missile defence system in East Europe is capable not only of monitoring approaching Iranian missiles, but also of detecting war-heads on any part of Russian territory to an accuracy of one metre.

What is America going to do in this situation? A Pentagon representative has said, on condition of anonymity, that his department does not expect Obama to introduce major changes to the missile defence system programme being implemented. Also, according to AFP, the US president-elect has promised just this in a telephone conversation with Polish President Lech Kaczynski. Later, however, AP reported Obama's assistant on international policy issues, Dennis McDonnogh, as saying that Obama did not express to Mr. Kaczynski his support for US plans on deploying a missile defence system in Poland. According to McDonnogh, Obama's position on the missile defence system has not changed since the election campaign and he will support it only if it proves effective.

In the meantime, the Financial Times believes that Moscow's threats reflect nothing but a persistent desire to hold talks on disarmament in the area of conventional and nuclear arms. It is also stressed that the disagreement between Russia and the USA is affecting existing mechanisms in this sphere. And this plays into the hands of such countries as North Korea and Iran.

On 7 November, it was reported that the USA had updated its missile defence proposal to Russia and, once the suggestion has been examined, a new date for a US-Russian meeting will be set. Moscow, however, was not particularly impressed with the documents. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the US suggestion "falls short of the principal agreements reached earlier". However, the Russian foreign minister did not rule out all progress on this issue "before the Bush Administration's term in office expires". In the meantime, the programmatic theses of Obama's transitional administration say that the new US president's team intends to work with Russia "on reducing nuclear weapons" and on "increasing the warning and decision-making time" before launching nuclear missiles. It is believed that a summit of world leaders will be held next year to combat the threat of nuclear terrorism.

Courteous Ahmadinejad 

The crisis over Iran's nuclear programme and the Arab-Israeli conflict will, beyond doubt, be among the most challenging foreign political issues for the new president. Despite the attempts of the Bush Administration and its promises at the Annapolis conference, a breakthrough in the Middle East settlement is highly unlikely to take place before Bush's term of office expires. The situation surrounding Iran is not very reassuring either, although some observers do hope for a change.

Unexpectedly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was among those who publicly congratulated Barack Obama on his victory in the presidential election. He is the first Iranian leader to congratulate an American counterpart since 1979. We recall that at the campaigning stage Barack Obama did not rule out the possibility of direct talks with Tehran, without preconditions.

In the meantime, observers believe that in negotiating with Iran, Obama would have to take into consideration Israel's discontent. Its Defence Minister Ehud Barak has recently urged the USA not to abandon the power scenario regarding Iran, which, many are convinced, is seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon. Barak also pointed to the impossibility of talks between Washington and Tehran until Iran rejects its nuclear ambitions. However, Obama is unlikely to be too lenient. In his first news conference after being elected president, Obama said he would not accept Iran with a nuclear weapon and added that he would do his best to prevent such an eventuality.

As for Iraq, according to a leader of Obama's transitional administration, the president-elect intends to follow his plan to withdraw all US troops from Iraq by mid-2010. According to Podesta, the 44th US president wants the pull-out of troops from Iraq "to be carried out with responsibility", but "within the timeframe he spoke about earlier".

However, as mentioned above, the key challenge for the new US president will be the economic crisis. This task is anything but easy, and Obama's success in this field is very much in the interests not only of the USA proper but also of the whole world - it is only too well-known that the condition of the US economy preconditions economic development on the planet as a whole.

Will Obama succeed in delivering on his pledges? We would like to hope so. He has all the prerequisites to do so - he is young, popular, intelligent and energetic. America has repeatedly served as an example to other countries, because the USA is a wonderful country with a history which has witnessed quite a few great events and miracles. Perhaps new miracles are not too far off…