POSSIBLE RESOLUTION

We were preparing to go to press when information emerged that the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are to meet in Moscow on 2 November. It is difficult to say how the talks will end. What is clear is that Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev had an ulterior motive in initiating the talks. Efforts to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh have recently been visibly revived, which is to be expected. After the well-known events over the regions that cut themselves off from Georgia, it was impossible to leave unattended another potential source of conflagration in the Caucasus. In the opposite event everyone would have suffered: the countries of the region and the great powers that do not want to lose their influence here.

The succession of events shows that Russia took the initiative not to allow a new war in the Caucasus. But this does not mean a change in the format of international mediation. Everything is taking place within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, the co-chairmen of which are the USA, Russia and France. By the way, the USA supported the trilateral meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with the involvement of the Russian president. So it cannot be said that the cooling in relations between the USA and Russia over events in Georgia has had a negative effect on their mediating mission on Karabakh. 

What has changed and can substantial progress be expected from this visible revival? The geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus after the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia has forced the countries involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process to look at the state of affairs realistically. First, Moscow has begun to realize that to maintain its influence on the Caucasus it does not need an outpost in the shape of Armenia, which survives on hand-outs, but a strong partner, which in this region is Azerbaijan. Second, the five-day war with Georgia deprived Armenia of the last land link with Russia. And it looks as though this will be for a long time. And Russia could not leave its outpost, cut off from Russia and from the outside world, in such a lamentable state. In this situation an acute need arose for Azerbaijan. But it is impossible to win over Baku, and all the more so to encourage it towards partnership with Armenia, without resolving the problem of Nagornyy Karabakh. Whether Baku's strategic ally Turkey will open its borders with Armenia depends on this. Taking these circumstances into consideration, Russia has brought into play all its capacity to resolve the conflict. This can be seen in Moscow's support for the Caucasus Security Platform put forward by Turkey and President Medvedev's proposal to organize a trilateral meeting of the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement that "it is in the deepest interests of the Armenian people to unblock this situation as soon as possible" is relevant too. "There are in fact not many geographic and political ways out. As soon as the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement becomes fact, Turkey is ready to help Armenia establish normal links with the outside world," Lavrov said in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

From the point of view of objective logic, Armenia really doesn't have many ways out and the best would appear the liberation of the occupied lands and recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, openly hinted at this. "I can only repeat the words of Vice-President Dick Cheney that we are looking for a jointly agreed resolution which begins from the principle of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and includes additional principles of joint agreement," he said in Baku.

With such a state of affairs the fuss in the Armenian press and political circles is hardly surprising. "They are surrendering Karabakh", "Russian and US charm offensive against Azerbaijan" and so on in the same vein, the headlines scream. 

But whatever Armenia may say, the mediators openly declare their intentions and expectations. "We feel, as one of the three mediators, that the resolution of the Karabakh problem is wholly realistic. Of course, it is Armenia and Azerbaijan that must resolve it within the framework of direct agreements, but the mediators - the Russians, Americans and French - who understand full well all the fine points and sensitivities of this process see the possibility of resolution," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. He continued, "Two or three issues remain unresolved and will be up for agreement at the next meetings of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan."