ISSUE OF SURVIVAL

Major personnel changes are under way in Armenia.  Parliamentary Speaker Tigran Torosyan has resigned and announced his withdrawal from the ruling Republican Party.  Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan signed a decree dismissing Appellate Court Chairman Ovanes Manukyan and appointing Arman Mkrtumyan to the post with enviable efficiency.  Presenting him to the members of the collegiums of the judiciary, the Armenian president noted sharply that the atmosphere of impunity should be eliminated, promising to do his best to make certain that the "judiciary in the country is independent, and judges are incorruptible."

It is already known who will succeed Torosyan. The Republican Party Council unanimously approved the 6 September decision by the party's executive to support the nomination of Ovik Abramyan's candidature for the post of Chairman of Parliament, said party press secretary Eduard Sharmazanov. However, exactly when the shuffle will take place remains uncertain: we either have to wait for the next four-day plenary session or an extraordinary one to be held.

"I do not think that the change of Speaker of Parliament in Armenia will result in qualitative changes in the work of the legislative body. There will be no fundamental changes for the simple reason that the pro-government coalition has an overwhelming majority of seats, 95%," said Stepan Grigoryan, head of the Analytical Centre for Globalization and Regional Cooperation, to an ArmInfo correspondent.

The assessments of the opposition camp are much harsher, which is not surprising. "The present vicious system of political power in Armenia clearly demonstrates that it can devour not only members of the opposition, but also its own people," stressed Stepan Savaryan, secretary of the parliamentary group of the opposition Legacy party. He added that recent events show that the formal institutions of power in the country are just a front to give a legitimate form to the decisions of different groups. "The fact that the decision was reached before discussion at the National Assembly, and that Parliament had no choice but to approve it, testifies to this," Mr. Safaryan noted.

As for the possible reasons behind the decision, it might be a matter of keeping promises made by incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan during his election campaign. "Ovik Abramyan lost the post of Deputy Prime Minister, which he had occupied for many years and seems now to be getting his promised compensation. Tigran Torosyan's resignation should be a good lesson for all the servile officials in power, who should understand, once and for all, that carrying out radical reforms in the country is in their own interests," said Stepan Safaryan.

It must be said that if the "shuffle" at the Appellate Court passed by largely unnoticed, the resignation of the Speaker of Parliament sparked heated debates. And there is effectively just one theory of explanation: "political intrigue," in which Torosyan saw no other option for himself.

It is unlikely that anyone doubts that the reshuffle was the result of Serzh Sargsyan's desire to consolidate his position in the "corridors of power." In contrast to Torosyan, who was quite an independent politician, Ovik Abramyan is a close friend of the president and is unlikely to question his authority. In addition, Torosyan is a native of Karabakh, which is important in today's Armenia. Political analyst Amayak Ovanisyan said that "by resigning, Tigran Torosyan, who was one of the closest allies of the country's late former Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan, tried to preserve his human dignity, which, as we know, is more important than a political career."

However, this "consolidation of position" by the President might in practice yield the opposite effect. Analysts note that Tigran Torosyan not only stepped down from the post of Parliamentary Chairman, but also left the ranks of the "presidential" Republican Party of Armenia, which is a different matter altogether. It is unlikely that Tigran Torosyan, who was out of favour with the Soviet regime for political reasons, will now leave the political arena. Torosyan's crossing to the opposition camp is effectively a fait accompli, and the appearance in this camp of not merely a charismatic politician, but an ideologue of the Republican Party, might considerably shift the balance to Serzh Sargsyan's disadvantage. Especially as, to all appearances, Serzh Azatovich did not receive the support of the overwhelming majority of Armenian voters during the election. The tragic events of 1-2 March can be interpreted as we please - from "popular protests that were drowned in blood" to "pogroms by extremists," but they were certainly no manifestation of popular support for the newly elected president.

In addition, Tigran Torosyan's resignation took place just when Serzh Sargsyan found himself in a situation where he had to find a way out of what can only be described as an economic and geopolitical catastrophe for Armenia, which has found itself isolated from its main ally and sponsor, Russia. There is no common border between the two countries and, until recently, Armenia was kept functional by transits via Georgia. However, after Russia's aggression against Georgia, the transit of Russian goods via Georgia is out of the question. Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are also locked because of the aggressive policy of Yerevan itself. There is also Iran, but it is better not to pin hopes for long-term projects of this type on Iran. Especially since Tehran has failed even to make up the gasoline shortage in Armenia.

There are additional, more prosaic, factors like the economy. Russia has never rushed to take responsibility for maintaining Yerevan and now, with a large-scale crisis hitting the Russian economy, subsidies to Armenia will inevitably be reduced. Armenia will soon have to buy natural gas at international market prices. And economic problems cannot simply be "frozen" and postponed "until later" for one simple reason: people have to eat every day.

The situation which has emerged in foreign policy is also hardly cause for optimism.

The euphoria of Abdulla Gul's visit has subsided, and Armenia has accepted the stark reality that although Turkey does want to normalize relations, it does not want to do so on Armenia's terms: rather the complete opposite. No opening of the border can be considered until Armenian troops are withdrawn from the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

Theoretically, Russia's desire to strengthen military cooperation within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Armenian recently assumed the presidency, might offer a solution, but Yerevan is not too optimistic: in the new situation, these hopes might also be dashed.

The Rubezh-2008 exercises were held in Armenia as scheduled, after the "five-day war" in Georgia. But only military personnel from the Russian military bases and Armenian troops took part in the "combat" phase. The "international" phase of the exercises was held in the form of command post exercises, and participants arrived in Armenia aboard ordinary civilian flights. This scenario made it possible to avoid questions about whose airspace the military aviation of Russia and other Collective Security Treaty Organization member countries would cross to visit Armenia, but what would happen if there was really a need to deploy troops? Indeed, the results of the war with Georgia may be interpreted in a variety of ways, but it remains a fact that no full occupation of the country, or installation of a "pro-Russian" government, has taken place. And relations between Georgia and Russia today are such that military transit for the organization via Georgia and its airspace is out of the question for a long time to come. Regular civilian flights are one thing, but flights by the Air Force and military transport aviation are another.

It is even more problematic to arrange military transit to Armenia via Azerbaijan, especially if the organization decided to "react" to our country's attempt to restore its territorial integrity. So transit would most probably go via Iran but, even in the best case, this type of "logistical" arrangement would not guarantee prompt deployment.

There are even fewer reasons for optimism regarding Karabakh. Matthew Bryza, the US co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, said that the "United States fully supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and is ready to assist in resolving the conflict. Agreement must be reached on the basis of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan." For his part, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed directly that South Ossetia and Abkhazia provide no precedent for Karabakh. In addition, having seen from the bitter experience of the "five-day war" that a frozen conflict can "defrost" very quickly, the Western countries are increasingly turning their attention towards a resolution of Karabakh. And here it will be Armenia which has to make concessions, because it has nothing to bargain with.

In short, the normalization of relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan becomes a matter of survival for Armenia, and normalization will certainly require difficult decisions.

To all appearances, the opposition camp in Armenia is ready to take advantage of the situation. At any rate, Arman Musinyan, press secretary of former President, and now opposition leader, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, made the following statement: "Deprived of any internal resources to remain in power, Serzh Sargsyan is willing to make deals with the international community on the issues of the regulation of Karabakh and international recognition of the genocide of Armenians." Musinyan recalled that in the more than five months of Serzh Sargsyan's presidential tenure, he has only been invited to Moscow. There have been reports about thwarting the visit to Georgia, which was scheduled for the near future. The foreign economic processes in and around Armenia are getting beyond the control of the incumbent regime. "Apparently, this is precisely what forces the authorities to go for deals with the international community on the Karabakh problem and on the issue of international recognition of the Armenian genocide," said Mr. Musinyan.

He also expressed his concern about trends that have become marked of late in dealing with these two very important issues for the Armenian people. In particular, with processes leading to a change of format for the Minsk Group of the OSCE and the statement by the Turkish president on Serzh Sargsyan's readiness to hand the occupied Azerbaijani territories back to Azerbaijan. The rumours, which have not been denied by the Armenian side, of plans to create an Armenian-Turkish research commission to study the issue of the "genocide" add further fuel.

"The Armenian authorities made a statement only on the inexpediency of changing the format of the OSCE Minsk Group, and the expected meeting of the heads of the foreign political departments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey does not alleviate our concerns over these issues. As for Abdulla Gul's statements about the Armenian President's speaking of a return of the occupied territories to Azerbaijan and rumours about a commission of historians, the incumbent leadership of the country remains proudly silent, which causes us great concern," stressed Arman Musinyan.

The Dashnaktsutyun party, which is part of the ruling coalition, also received their "due" for their unforgivably soft - in the opinion of Ter-Petrosyan's supporters - reaction to current developments. Musinyan said that the "Armenian Revolutionary Front, Dashnaktsu-tyun, is so deeply involved in the dealings of the incumbent criminal regime in Armenia that it has no scope for action."

The "proxy debate" of this sort is even more surprising, given that during the recent presidential campaign, Ter-Petrosyan positioned himself as a supporter of the "peace party," whereas Serzh Sargsyan openly created the image of a "hawk" for himself. Moscow, too, is really nervous about a possible political "reorientation" for Armenia. It is possible that the Kremlin is considering its options for "correcting the situation."  And if we recall how turbulent domestic political upheavals would take place in Armenia every time the West managed to reach some progress in the talks on regulation of the conflict, it can be said with certainty that the main events in Armenia are yet to occur.