OBAMA AND BIDEN VERSUS McCAIN AND PALIN

Presidential elections will be held in the USA in two months' time. The primaries, or preliminary elections, have already decided the candidates from the leading American parties - Senator Barack Obama from the Democratic Party and Senator John McCain from the Republicans. They had to be officially confirmed at the party congresses and there was still some intrigue - who would be their running mate as vice-presidential candidate. Since Obama and McCain are practically neck and neck in the opinion polls, the congresses and the choice of vice-presidential candidate could give a substantial boost to one side or the other. The answers to these questions emerged over the past two weeks.

The Democratic Party held its four-day national convention (as the national congress is called) at the end of August in Denver (Colorado). It officially confirmed the candidates for president and vice-president - Barack Obama and Joe Biden respectively.

Traditionally party congresses in the USA are more like colourful political shows than serious debating chambers. Everything is usually decided in the primaries and behind-the-scenes negotiations. The public aspect is limited to short speeches, mainly by the party's leading figures, accompanied by loud applause and chanting from the participants. It was important for the 4,000 delegates who gathered in Denver's sport and entertainment complex to ensure the Democratic Party's real consolidation after the fierce primaries between the victor, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, and New York State's influential senator, Hillary Clinton.

Polls have shown that many of Clinton's supporters intend to vote in November not for Obama but for Republican candidate McCain. That's why the appearance by Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, who expressed their apparently sincere support for Obama and Biden, was so important. This could have a serious impact on the behaviour of Democrat supporters and on the election results. The fact that the Republican Party opened a special "observation post" in Denver to woo at least a few delegates who supported Clinton shows how important this is.

Hillary Clinton said: "Barack Obama is my candidate and he must be our president. Whether you voted for me, or voted for Barack, the time is now to unite as a single party with a single purpose. We are on the same team, and none of us can sit on the sidelines." Clinton said that McCain is a decent man and a hero, but he must not be allowed to continue the Republican administration which is so destructive for the USA. Time will tell whether these words will be enough to unite Hillary Clinton's 18 million supporters around her recent rival. Many of them are deeply disappointed that Obama decided to make Senator Joe Biden and not Hillary Clinton his running mate and vice-presidential candidate.

The climax of the summit was Barack Obama's speech at a mass rally in a stadium. It was here, and not in the convention hall, that he accepted his nomination as presidential candidate. An historic event has occurred - for the first time a black candidate has been put forward and approved as the Democrats' official candidate for the US presidency and has a good chance of victory.

When they report opinion polls, the American media point out that voters are fickle and waver between the candidates. At any event, neither the convention itself nor the nomination of Joe Biden as vice-presidential candidate has improved Obama's ratings.

Joseph Biden heads the Senate's foreign affairs committee. He has been a member of the Senate since 1973. His nomination was intended to counterbalance Barack Obama's "youth" and relative inexperience in the eyes of the voters. But asked about Biden's record as a politician, his opponents say that the senator has often voted inconsistently and even against national interests. Biden is a Catholic from a family of modest means and popular with the middle class and ordinary white American workers whom Obama has not yet been able to win over. But the polls still don't show that the Democrats have cracked the situation. 

With Russia's action in Georgia the Democratic candidates had to tear themselves away from their favourite economic and social issues and apply themselves to international affairs. Barack Obama condemned Russia's decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and called on the international community not to support Moscow's action. He said, "…If Russia's government continues to violate the norms and practices of the international community, the United States and our allies must review all aspects of relations with Russia." He said later that if he is elected president, he will use tough, direct diplomacy to restrain Russia's aggression: "I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression," he said to the friendly applause of delegates and tens of thousands of his supporters.

After the Democrats the Republican Party held their convention in St Paul (Minnesota). Without waiting for the convention to start McCain named his vice-presidential candidate, Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin. So the Americans do have a woman vice-presidential candidate this time round, just not Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Sarah Palin, 44, is the first woman in the USA to be a governor. Her husband is Yupik Eskimo which allows the Republicans to claim the votes of national minorities and counterbalance to some extent Barack Obama's advantage in this regard. Sarah Palin is the mother of five (!) children, a former beauty queen and now a fan of hunting and fishing. In other words, she's an ideal American woman, whose adherence to "family values" and conservatism has not stopped her having a successful career. Sarah Palin is a tough and energetic politician. The press often recall her nickname that's been with her since her schooldays - Sarah Barracuda (a predatory, even savage fish).

Hurricane Gustav meant that the Republican Party had to curtail slightly its convention. McCain told the congress that he considered it unacceptable to hold celebrations when the south of the country could be suffering a natural disaster. Influential Senator Joe Lieberman's speech at the convention is worth mentioning. He was once a Democratic vice-presidential candidate but is now supporting McCain. He said that the country's interests were above party loyalty.

After eight years of President Bush's administration, which many consider a failure, victory for the Republican candidate seemed unlikely. However, the tension in international relations, especially the latest actions by Iran, North Korea and, most important, Russia, have significantly boosted the Republicans' chances, especially with McCain as their candidate who is highly suited to the situation. The world is becoming more dangerous, so a tough, experienced politician like Vietnam War hero McCain is in greater demand. Polls show that the American public trusts McCain as supreme commander-in-chief more than Democratic candidate Obama.

McCain went against the opinion of the majority of his colleagues in Congress and supported the troop surge in Iraq at a time when the war was going badly. It was a bold and far-sighted step as the situation in Iraq has improved so much that it's possible to talk about the withdrawal of US troops. McCain has long been a critic of Moscow's policy towards Georgia and the recent crisis seemed to confirm that he was right. McCain's confrontational instincts can be seen even more clearly when it comes to Iran. He said that the only thing worse than war with Iran would be Iran with nuclear weapons.

Critics from the Democratic camp claim that McCain would simply continue President George Bush's policies. This does seem to be the case at first glance. But they are different people both in the political and personal sense. Unlike Bush, McCain has been involved in foreign policy for years. McCain, and not Bush, was the favourite of the non-conservative wing of the Republican Party when he ran against George Bush for the presidential nomination in 2000. McCain calls for a tougher policy on Iran, Russia and China than does the Bush administration. Bush has a cheerful, optimistic temperament while McCain is gloomier and more severe. Bush avoided the call-up to Vietnam, while McCain fought, was shot down and spent five years in captivity, suffering dreadful torture. He is from a military family who inculcated in him from childhood a sense of honour and duty (McCain's father was commander of US forces in the Pacific).

The personal qualities of the occupant of the White House play a huge role in international crises. By temperament Obama is a cautious, pragmatic conciliator. McCain is aggressive and radical. John McCain would seem to be the favourite after Russia's invasion of Georgia and the actions of the leaders of North Korea and Iran who have had the audacity to challenge the international community in their attempts to get nuclear weapons. The most recent opinion polls seem to bear this out, but it's really far from the case. According to CNN's collated rating, which sums up the results of all the opinion polls, Barack Obama remains slightly ahead. And if the potential number of votes are calculated in terms of electoral colleges (it's not the overall number of votes that matter in the USA but victory in individual states, as the elections are not direct), then the Democrats have quite a significant lead - 221 against 189.

The US presidential elections are reaching the final straight, but a significant proportion of the American electorate haven't yet decided how to vote. The scales can easily be tipped in favour of one candidate or the other. The television debates between Obama and McCain and Biden and Palin could be decisive. It might be that during the TV debate the telegenic Obama, who is a born orator, could gain the upper hand over the rather buttoned-up, old-fashioned McCain. We will soon know whether or not this is the case. American sociologists issue opinion poll results straight after the debates, of which there will be several - on the economy, domestic and foreign policy. A tough fight is up ahead which could have a major impact not only on the USA but the world as a whole.