ANKARA CHANGES PRIORITIES

So it has happened. Despite the powerful opposition of the Turkish and Azerbaijani public, Turkish President Abdullah Gul accepted the proposal of his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisyan to visit Yerevan.

Meanwhile, the West was thrilled with this decision, expressing exclamations of approval one after another. One of the staunchest supporters of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations was US Assistant Deputy Secretary of State and co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, who said that Gul's visit to Yerevan "will give an impetus to the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict with political methods". US State Department spokesman Mark Toner "congratulated the presidents of Turkey and Armenia for their courageous step directed at recreating a long-term atmosphere of stability and security in the region". EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn pointed out that the latest events in Georgia stressed the need to strengthen good neighbourly relations in the region, and in this context, the Turkish president's visit to Yerevan is of special importance. The special envoy of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly for Nagornyy Karabakh, Goran Lennmarker, went even further, saying in Yerevan that "Turkey must have the courage to overcome its past and recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915".

As a result, both the opponents and supporters of Gul's visit to Armenia see eye to eye on one issue - the date of the visit, 6 September 2008, became "historic" in the fate of the South Caucasus.

"For" and "against"

Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish President Abdullah Gul himself did not seem to expect such a negative reaction from the Turkish public to the visit to Yerevan. For this reason, they tried to delay the official statement about Gul's visit till the last moment. The Turkish head of state also admitted this later, saying that he took a positive decision on the visit long before the media learnt about it.

In any case, the first signals of the rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan came in early July when the Turkish government unexpectedly dismissed the staunch opponent of any contacts with Yerevan, the head of the Turkish Historical Society, Yusuf Halacoglu.

Indeed, the negative reaction of the Turkish public to Gul's visit was so pronounced that even the pro-government media did not miss a chance to "criticize" the head of state.

On 4 September, Milliyet newspaper published excerpts from a statement by Abdullah Gul (which he made as a member of parliament from the Rifah Party in 1993) where he harshly condemned Ankara's desire to establish contacts with Armenia. Speaking in the parliament at the time, Gul said it was "unacceptable" to allow Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan to visit Ankara to participate in the funeral of Turkish President Turgut Ozal.

"Note what kind of defeatist policy the Turkish government is pursuing if the president of Armenia has the courage to take part in the funeral of our head of state. He knows that you are thinking about your own interests and are afraid to display courage, whereas it is necessary to defend the interests of the Turkish state. He knows how loyal you are," Abdullah Gul stressed then. He also said: "Name at least one country which has the face to wage a war against the brothers of the Turks and say that the map of Europe is totally established, while the map of the Middle East and Asia should be redrawn." "That country claims that Kars is an Armenian land, and then its president will come to Turkey and you will extend your hand to him. How is it possible?" Gul wondered.

At the same time, in August all the major Turkish newspapers without exception tried to find out the position of the head of state from their own sources in Ankara. Their articles said that preparations for the visit were going on at full speed.

Trying not to interfere, the popular publications of the country, including Milliyet and Hurriyet, conducted online polls. Although the results of the intermediate polls were kept secret for the first time in the history of the publications, it proved impossible to conceal the negative reaction of the public. It turned out that 61 per cent of the visitors of Turkey's most popular websites spoke out against the head of state's visit to Yerevan.

At the same time, the pro-Armenian newspaper Radikal was a mouthpiece of the proponents of the visit. Radikal published the main theses in favour of the visit. For example, according to the newspaper, Gul's visit to Yerevan will put an end to the unity of the Armenian government and the Armenian diaspora. "For decades, the diaspora held on to anti-Turkish sentiments. However, the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey will leave them no choice and they will be forced to end their propaganda against Ankara. At the same time, this step will improve Turkey's image in the West, specifically, it will have a good effect on the process of the country's entry into the EU," the newspaper writes.

On 28 August, this same newspaper published an interview with the president of Armenia who expressed once again his interest in establishing diplomatic relations without preconditions.

The answer of the Turkish head of state, published in the same newspaper Radikal, was even more interesting. For example, Abdullah Gul told the newspaper: "We are children of one land. Living side by side for centuries, the Turks and Armenians have been fighting hardships. We are interested in solving problems with our neighbours."

Meanwhile, the Turkish opposition brought down a barrage of criticism on the head of state. The newspaper Ortadogu - the organ of the opposition Nationalist People's Party (NPP) - published a harshly-worded statement by NPP chairman Devlet Bahceli who openly demanded that the president refuse to go to Yerevan. "Yerevan has not fulfilled any of the conditions put forward by Turkey. It has not given up its policy of promoting the recognition of the false genocide, has not pulled out of Azerbaijan's occupied territories and has no intention of giving up its territorial claims to Turkey. What visit are we talking about? Yerevan is one of the main points of support for the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party. This step cannot be justified by any means," the leader of the third largest party in the Turkish parliament said. According to Bahceli, under pressure from the international community, specifically the USA, Ankara is trying to go against its own national interests, which is unacceptable.

At the same time, the newspaper Cumhuriyet published a statement by the leader of the People's Republican Party, Deniz Baykal, who said that "Armenia is not more important than Azerbaijan which is also of strategic importance to Turkey with its ethnic and cultural roots" and "is an important energy corridor of Eurasia". Baykal made caustic remarks by calling on Abdullah Gul to lay a wreath at the memorial to the victims of the false Armenian genocide during his visit to Yerevan.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stood up for the head of state, saying that the policy of rejecting talks with Armenia is not yielding any dividends to Ankara. "Do not run away from the talks. There must be a dialogue between the two states, and this is normal," Erdogan emphasized.

At the same time, the Turkish prime minister did not omit to use a compromising dossier, saying that "the leaders of some opposition parties themselves once met Armenian leaders, so they should not be condemning the actions of the country's leadership". In this way, Erdogan hinted at the meeting between the late leader of the Nationalist People's Party, Alparslan Turkes, and Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

The last days before Gul's visit to Yerevan were especially difficult for Erdogan, though the situation was sweetened by a report about the decision of the Armenian football federation to replace Mount Ararat on its logo with a ball, which Turkey's pro-government media welcomed as a gesture of "good will by Yerevan".

Believe it or not

On his way to Yerevan, the Turkish president gave an interview to Turkey journalists, saying that his visit to Armenia was "an important opportunity to solve the problems that have accumulated in Turkish-Armenian relations".

Calling his visit to Armenia "historic", the Turkish head of state drew parallels between the game of the Turkish and Armenian national teams and the game of the Cuban and US national teams which was held in Havana 61 years ago.

According to Gul, the foundations of the Turkish-Armenian dialogue were laid the moment Serzh Sarkisyan was elected president of Armenia. "I sent a congratulatory message to the Armenian head of state, expressing my hope for the elimination of obstacles existing in relations between the two states," the Turkish president said, adding that the presence of the Turkish and Armenian national teams in one qualifying group of the 2010 World Championship was a "good reason for the development of bilateral relations". "I hope that this chance will yield positive results," Gul said.

The Turkish president express his genuine surprise at "how such a small geographic territory as the South Caucasus could have such a number of conflicts of global importance," the Turkish president pointed out, stressing that with the help of Ankara's initiative called "the platform of stability and security in the Caucasus" it is possible to create "a zone of stability with its borders stretching to Central Asia". "Instability is a wall standing in the way of any development of the region, while stability is an open road," Gul said, stressing that in this context, "the discussion with Armenia's first person of the issue of Yerevan's joining the platform initiated by Turkey is of special importance".

"My job is to create an atmosphere that will make it possible to solve the problems that have accumulated in the future. Turkey is the most important country in the region and in this regard, it must pursue an active policy. For Turkey, the Caucasus is as important as the Balkans," Gul said.

The Turkish head of state also said that he intends to invite the Armenian president to the return match between the two countries' national teams in Istanbul on 14 October.

According to Gul, Turkey is one of the rare countries that have an excellent idea about the developments in Armenia. "I believe that you cannot push problems away just because their solution might take a lot of efforts. Such a policy causes the problems to acquire a chronic nature, which may have irreparable consequences in the future."

At the same time, the Turkish head of state declined to comment on the essence of problems between Turkey and Armenia, calling them "technical issues".

The Turkish president arrived in Yerevan on 6 September at 1630 local time. At the airport, he was met by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan. Supporters of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutyun also came there, raising posters saying "Recognize the Armenian genocide" and "Open the border without preconditions".

Major rallies were staged in the streets of Yerevan. People carrying slogans saying "Armenia remembers everything" and "Turkey must recognize the genocide" lined up in all the streets where Gul's motorcade passed.

The Armenian president met Abdullah Gul at the entrance to his residency, after which both presidents held negotiations. The meeting behind closed doors which lasted two hours was attended by the two countries' foreign ministers.

Immediately after the negotiations, the two presidents addressed journalists. Specifically, the Turkish head of state expressed his satisfaction with the fact that he was invited to Yerevan, stressing that he could "make comprehensive use of this chance". Gul said that during the negotiations with Sarkisyan, they discussed creating the "platform of stability and security in the Caucasus". Gul pointed out that the sides are convinced of the need to form an atmosphere that will allow the two countries to solve their problems. "I hope that the visit will become a good basis for the elimination of disagreements," the Turkish leader said, adding that Sarkisyan approved of Ankara's initiative to create the "stability platform".

In response, the Armenian president said: "We expressed the hope that we are capable of displaying good will to solve the existing problems and not to leave these problems to the future generations".

Serzh Sarkisyan expressed his satisfaction with the sides' readiness and desire to establish stability and peace in the region. "I highly rate the decision of the Turkish president to react to my invitation positively," he said.

During a fast-breaking dinner organized by the Armenian president in honour of the Turkish head of state, musician David Gasparyan played the Sari Galin tune on a pipe. The Armenian president showed his Turkish counterpart a table and said the word "lavash" in Armenian. In reply, Abdullah Gul said that the two peoples have a lot in common, even food.

After the dinner, the Armenian head of state gave Gul a vase dedicated to the works of Turkish philosopher Mevlana. The words "correcting your flaws, turn into a night" were etched into the vase.

Then the two presidents went to the Hrazdan stadium where they watched the match between the national teams of Armenia and Turkey from a special tribute with bulletproof glass.

Representatives of the Dashnaktstuyun party marked the beginning of the match with a protest near the memorial to the victims of the Armenian "genocide". They lit torches, appealing to the memory of so-called "innocent victims of the genocide" and demanding that Turkey recognize its crime against the Armenian people.

The protest ended after the departure of the Turkish president.

At the Hrazdan stadium, Armenian fans jeered at the Turkish national anthem. Deafening catcalls were also heard as the state flag of Turkey was brought into the stadium.

As a result, Armenia lost to Turkey 0-2. After the match, Serzh Sarkisyan and Abdullah Gul shook hands and welcomed the two countries' foreign ministers in the government lounge, Edward Nalbandyan and Ali Babacan, and their spouses, and waved their hands to the fans.

The official schedule of the Turkish president's visit to Yerevan ended in a cocktail party organized by the Armenian president in his honour at the stadium.

During the conversation, Sarkisyan said that he accepted Abdullah Gul's invitation to visit the return match. He said the Armenian footballers are full of determination to even the score in Istanbul.

As was expected, the Armenian foreign minister was especially active. He organized a pompous dinner for Turkish journalists who were accompanying their president.

Edward Nalbandyan told the Turkish journalists that the first part of the road to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has already been covered, and now we only have to agree on the "establishment of diplomatic relations" and "open the border". "The issue of covering the remaining part of the road totally depends on the desire of the sides to establish good neighbourly relations," the Armenian foreign minister stressed.

One day after the visit, it became known that a decision had been made to continue active negotiations at the level of foreign ministers. The foreign ministers of Turkey and Armenia agreed to meet at the UN General Assembly in New York to agree on "consistent steps towards the full normalization of bilateral relations".

The ball is in Armenia's court

After his return to Ankara, the Turkish president first held a small news conference where he said that "his visit to Yerevan may contribute to the cause of settling the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict". "I did not even expect such detailed discussions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict with Serzh Sarkisyan," the Turkish leader said. "The Nagornyy Karabakh issue is the main subject in the Caucasus," he said.

At the same time, the Turkish head of state observed that the Armenian side "did not even mention the events of 1915" during the talks.

He also drew attention to the fact that the issue of opening the Turkish-Armenian border was not discussed in Yerevan either. "If the favourable atmosphere of the talks continues, everything will get into its stride and normalize. However, it is too early to talk about it today," Gul said.

In turn, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said that Yerevan itself needs the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. "Armenia has no access to the sea, and most of the borders are closed. For this reason, the Armenians need a dialogue with Turkey more," the Turkish foreign minister said. Noting the positive reaction of the international community to the Turkish president's decision to visit Yerevan, Babacan stressed that "of course, Ankara did not act on an instruction from the West".

Commenting on Azerbaijan's possible dissatisfaction with the Turkish president's negotiations in Armenia, Babacan said that Baku itself is also having direct talks with Yerevan. "I think that Azerbaijan is not concerned about Gul's visit. Stability and security will have a favourable influence on the whole region."

At a meeting with EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn, the Turkish foreign minister said that Ankara has done everything possible to normalize relations with Yerevan and "now the ball is in Armenia's court".

Meanwhile, tensions surrounding the Turkish head of state's visit to Armenia did not subside both before and after the visit.

Specifically, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan severely criticized the country's opposition leaders who accused the president of "trampling upon the national interests of Turkey in order to please the West".

According to the prime minister, Turkey is no longer on the list of states that calculate their every step for fear of getting a negative reaction from third countries. "We have overcome the complex of fear," Erdogan stressed, adding that "opposing negotiating processes, Ankara is actually causing new problems for itself".

Due to the lack of any specific results from the visit, the newspapers controlled by the Turkish prime minister focused on the fact that on the day of the visit to Yerevan by the Turkish head of state, the Armenian authorities switched off the lights at the memorial to the victims of the fictitious genocide, which Turkish journalists think "proves Yerevan's good will once again".

Waiting

Abdullah Gul's brief visit to Baku in order to "soothe Azerbaijan and reduce tensions in Azerbaijani society" did not yield the expected results. It is quite problematic to persuade Baku that the Armenian-Turkish dialogue will help settle the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Turkey itself has been a member of the OSCE Minsk Group for more than a decade, and this format was quite "operational" for any of Ankara's initiatives. The fact that, after Gul's latest voyage to Armenia, neither Yerevan nor Baku expressed their desire to change the mediatory platform of the OSCE Minsk Group testifies to the sides' lack of trust in Ankara's initiatives.

It is even more difficult to make the Azerbaijani man in the street believe the words of the Turkish president that "there is a chance to settle frozen conflicts. I have returned from Armenia with hopes. I believe that meetings will help settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict…"

In a word, having awakened and set its eyes on the Caucasus, Turkish diplomacy finally realized that it will be impossible to strengthen its positions in the region without solving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. On 16 September, on the sidelines of the 63rd session of the UN General Assembly in New York, it is planned to hold a meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. However both Ankara and Yerevan do not hide that the priority task of both states is not Nagornyy Karabakh. If Yerevan is trying to normalize relations with Turkey, Ankara wants to strengthen its influence in the Caucasus.

In this regard, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a notable statement, calling "for events not to be precipitated". Pointing out that "there are certain promising factors and promising information", Ilham Aliyev stressed that "Azerbaijan is looking to the future with growing hopes". "I want to believe that owing to the efforts of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia and other countries, we will secure peace in the region," the president of Azerbaijan said.

This shows that Azerbaijan has chosen a wait-and-see position, for even the Turkish president himself cannot foretell the end results of his "Armenian undertakings".