6 February 2025

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The "Georgian Dream" on the threshold of a split. Can Ivanishvili return to power?

Author:

05.05.2015

Recent political developments in Georgia were wittingly called a "shower of falling ministers" by Tbilisi wisecrackers. The Cabinet of Ministers headed by Irakli Garibashvili resigned. By operation of law, the parliament is now to issue a vote of confidence in the "old-new" government. Garibashvili is certain that there will be no problem, as the ruling coalition Georgian Dream has an absolute majority in Georgian parliament. However, experts caution that the current government crisis shows, above all, a deepening split in the Georgian Dream coalition, which is also rapidly losing its popularity among voters.

Indeed, David Shavliashvili, the Minister of Regional Development and former head of Cartu Bank owned by ex-Prime Minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili, resigned as early as the beginning of this year. "He (Shavliashvili) has quite a serious disease, which was diagnosed in December. Over the past four months, he repeatedly addressed me with a request for resignation. But due to the fact that back then Georgia was in a rather difficult situation because of the devaluation of the lari, and given that it was important for us to successfully complete the first quarter, he decided to (temporarily) remain in office," Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said at the time. However, it seems that not everybody believed him because the 31-year-old minister had spoken to reporters just the day before and did not give the impression of a person who had a health problem. This immediately prompted an unofficial version: Shavliashvili had lost favour with Ivanishvili, who had resigned as the head of government, but still remained the behind-the-scenes leader of the team of "dreamers", as many in Tbilisi believe.

This was followed by another resignation as Minister of Environment Elgudja Hokrishvili left his post amidst a juicy scandal: the official, whose family lives in Germany, was accused of being a "migrant worker in Georgia" and frequently flying to Berlin at public expense.

And now a scandal in the sphere of sports, which erupted at the beginning of last week: 11 of the 17 members of the Committee on Sport and Youth Affairs of Georgian parliament signed a statement which said that the "development of sports in Georgia has come to a halt", nothing had been done to reform the sector, and the programme developed by the Ministry remained on paper only.

 

In response, Minister of Sport and Youth Affairs Levan Kipiani called a briefing, at which he announced his resignation and said: "I do not wish to enter into a political confrontation with the representatives of my team, specifically with the Parliamentary Committee on Sport and Youth Affairs... The main reason for my resignation is the desire to avoid a situation where the problem would go beyond certain limits and to stop all lies about me, my team and the ministry".

That was already a "threshold". Prior to that, the heads of the Interior Ministry, Foreign Ministry and Defence Ministry - Alexander Chikaidze, Maia Panjikidze and Irakli Alasania - as well as State Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Alexi Petriashvili had left the original composition of the Cabinet, formed in November 2013, at different times. There are 19 portfolios in the Georgian Cabinet. According to the constitution, if more than a third of the initial composition of the Cabinet leave their posts, the entire Cabinet should resign.

Kipiani made a very intriguing statement at his briefing. After confirming his allegiance to the Georgian Dream coalition, with which he came to power, Kipiani urged members of parliament to refrain from provocations against the state.

"We have fulfilled many of our promises, but what happened in recent months is unacceptable for me because these people have compromised their conscience. I urge them not to follow the path of provocations against the state and to deliver on what they had promised to the Georgian people," Kipiani said, thereby outlining the growing split in the camp of the recent winners. Many perceive Ivanishvili's actions as the cause of this split. Anyway, Irakli Alasania, the former defence minister and the leader of the Our Georgia - Free Democrats party, told reporters bluntly: "The only correct solution would be for Ivanishvili to return in person, put an end to the informal rule and steer the country to the parliamentary elections, following which the decision will be made by the people of Georgia". The implication is clear: let Mr. Ivanishvili stop controlling the developments from behind the scenes and assume full responsibility for the situation in the country.

In the meantime, the party of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, United National Movement (UNM), called for the formation of a technical government not serving the interests of the country's former prime minister, businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. The party believes that the government of Irakli Garibashvili has actually collapsed. "The collapse of the Cabinet of Ministers indicates not only the incapacity of Garibashvili's government, but also the systemic failure of Ivanishvili's off-stage governing," says Goka Gabashvili, an MP from the National Movement. "Now the task of Georgian parliament is to fulfil the social contract and - rather than appointing another puppet government of Ivanishvili - emerge from the shadow of the oligarch and find a way to form a technical government which will be able to stop the destruction of the economy and prepare the country for new elections by means of prompt legislative acts," Gabashvili noted, placing the responsibility for lari devaluation on the government. His colleague in parliament and one of the UNM leaders David Darchiashvili spoke even more sharply. "You can call it a managerial, government or political crisis. Its name does not change its essence," he told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. "Recent events have exposed the crisis in the minds of the current leaders of Georgia. Their values are in chaos, their goals are incomprehensible or unattainable, and sometimes they act almost like the proverbial Swan, Pike and Crawfish".

Meanwhile, one more thing is clear. Already at the moment of its triumph in the autumn of 2013, the Georgian Dream was far from being a political monolith, much like Saakashvili's supporters immediately after the victory of the Rose Revolution. The Georgian Dream was comprised of fairly diverse and markedly competing political forces which united not so much "in favour of Ivanishvili" as "against Saakashvili". In so doing, the "dreamers" promised "protest voters" all at once without hesitation. It was taken for granted that billionaire Ivanishvili would be able to boost the Georgian economy, which Saakashvili failed to do. Most importantly, the "dreamers" promised to normalize relations with Russia, hence, to return Georgian products to the Russian market. As was widely believed by many in Tbilisi, Zugdidi, Gori and Kutaisi, if the blame fully lies with "non-handshakeable" Saakashvili, then without him the relations between Tbilisi and Moscow should return to the "pre-war state".

It is already clear that the main promises of the "dreamers" have remained unfulfilled. Neither an economic "breakthrough" nor impressive progress in the social sphere has been achieved. What is most insulting, however, is the absence of significant progress in the Russian direction. Of course, Moscow and Tbilisi are conducting negotiations, have resumed air service and returned Georgian wine and Borjomi to the Russian market, albeit in microscopic quantities, but the "dreamers" have failed to achieve their main goal - the restoration of sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia has not renounced the recognition of their independence. Amid the growing frustration with the immediate results of activities of the Georgian Dream, fairly predictable processes have taken shape in its ranks, which most accurately could be described as "confusion and vacillation". These processes are closely watched by Saakashvili's supporters which experience understandable feelings and do not hide their plans to return to power.


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