MOSCOW ALONE

The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, on 28 August amidst perhaps the worst deterioration in relations between Russia and the West since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

Following the escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia, which resulted in military confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi, the Kremlin chose to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two breakaway republics in Georgia. Only the Palestinian movement Hamas, which is considered by many countries to be a terrorist group, welcomed Moscow's decision.

The rest of the world, however, unleashed a storm of criticism against Russia. Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and the G8 (or rather, the G7 - Russia was not invited) foreign ministers and others have strongly condemned the Kremlin's actions. Some Western politicians call for sanctions against Russia and its isolation in the international arena. This was the backdrop against which Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev, who took office as recently as May and who was a novice at the SCO summit, took on the difficult job of persuading his partners in the organization to follow suit and recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

It has to be said that, although the SCO does not officially position itself as a military-political bloc, it is often referred to as a potential counterbalance to NATO. The main aim of the organization is to combat the spread of US and NATO influence in Asia. It is notable that at the Dushanbe summit, Medvedev identified as one of the key reasons for the creation of the SCO the realization of the need to coordinate efforts in strengthening regional security and stability. This explains why Russia needs support for its actions in the Caucasus from its partners in the Shanghai organization.

In the 14-clause final declaration of the Dushanbe summit, the participant countries expressed their concern over the tension in Russian-Georgian relations. "The SCO member states express their profound concern over the recent escalation of tensions around the issue of South Ossetia and urge the parties to resolve the existing problems peacefully through dialogue, move towards reconciliation and begin negotiations. The SCO member states welcome the approval of the six principles of regulation of the conflict in South Ossetia in Moscow on 12 August and support Russia's active role in peace and cooperation in the region," the declaration reads.

Naturally, Moscow interprets this wording as support for Russia's actions in the Caucasus. At the same time, Moscow failed to achieve its main goal: none of the SCO nations intends to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, at least not in the near future. On the contrary, the heads of the SCO member states reaffirmed their continuing support for the principle of the territorial integrity of states.

The Russian president failed to receive any significant response from Chinese President Hu Jintaoto.  The only assurance he received from his Chinese opposite number was that Beijing will continue to support Sochi as the host city of the 2014 Winter Olympics.  Other leaders of the SCO member states also adopted a very reserved stance. And there is an obvious reason for this: the SCO countries are no strangers to the problem of separatism. Beijing's two main problems are Tibet and Taiwan. China continues to insist that Tibet is a historical part of China and views the isle of Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory. The Central Asian countries have border problems and tension is rising over access to fresh water resources (the distribution of water from cross-border rivers). All the countries of the region are involved in this struggle which, for now, remains civilized. Yet another reason is that Russia's neighbours were bound to be alarmed by the fact that Moscow decided to interfere in the domestic affairs of a former Soviet republic which is currently an independent state. In addition, the Central Asian countries have no desire to spoil their relations with the EU and the United States, as that would make them more dependent on Russia, including on the issue of the transport of Central Asian hydrocarbons to world markets.

Even Belarus, which is not an SCO member but remains Russia's closest ally, voiced very cautious support for Russia's recognition of Georgia's breakaway regions. And it did so only after Moscow's reproach for Minsk's failure to support Russia. Alyaksandr Lukashenka hesitated to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia on his own and proposed the inclusion of the issue on the agenda of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which is to hold its meeting on 5 September, in order to reach a common decision. However, given that the organization is formed by the same CIS countries which have no desire to strain relations with the West, Lukashenka's initiative is unlikely to win support.

So, a situation has emerged in which Moscow has found itself out on a limb. Some countries would like to support it, but cannot, and others do not want to and have no intention of supporting Russia on the issue of the recognition of the separatist entities in Georgia.