Turkish explosions shock the world

The bloody terrorist attack on the evening of 27 July, which claimed the lives of 17 people in Istanbul, has pushed Turkey's two-year-long domestic political crisis into the background. The two explosions in the Gungeren district were the biggest terrorist attacks in the country in the past six years.

Witnesses said that first a loud hand grenade exploded in a busy commercial district, causing panic. Some rushed to see what was going on, while others went to help the wounded. Ten minutes later a real, powerful explosive device was detonated 50 metres from the scene of the first explosion. The bomb had been hidden in a litter bin. One hundred and fifty people were wounded of whom 15 were taken to hospital in a critical condition.

The blast was so strong that a 12-year-old girl standing on the balcony of a fifth-floor flat not far away could feel it. A pregnant woman was among the dead.

At time of going to press, no-one has claimed responsibility for the attack. Although the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has officially denied any link with the terrorist attack, the authorities have not yet completely ruled out the PKK factor. This can be seen in the statement by Istanbul's mayor, Muammer Guler. He announced that initial investigation pointed to the PKK, as this organization's activists usually use RDX explosives which these bombs were packed with. The mayor said that the PKK are known to be carrying out sabotage attacks against the Turkish army in the south-east, using mines stuffed with RDX. This substance was used in May last year in the blast at the Anafartalar commercial centre in Ankara which killed six people.

But most experts do not share Muammer Guler's opinion. They say that open terrorist activity in a heavily populated place is not typical of the PKK which is trying "not to inflame passions", concentrating attention on combating the Turkish army in the Iraqi border provinces where ethnic Kurds make up the majority of the population.

For example, well-known Turkish expert Prof Deniz Aribogan said that the PKK would not carry out such an attack against the civilian population in order not to reduce their minimum of international authority as an organization fighting the army and not civilians. Aribogan and many other commentators think that the blasts aimed to disturb domestic political and economic stability in the country. The terrorist attack might be linked to the famous political trials in Turkey, in particular the case of the Ergenekon organization, in which the defendants are accused of preparing a coup to overthrow the government. The Ergenekon issue has recently been one of the major causes of increased tension in the country's domestic political crisis.

It is also worth noting that the terrorist attack was committed on the eve of the Constitutional Court's hearing of the case on dissolution of the ruling Justice and Development Party.

If the prosecutor-general's demand is upheld, Turkey's Constitutional Court will ban the upper echelons of the ruling party from political activity for five years, which will put an end to all the reforms carried out by the current government since 2002. The country will enter a blind alley which will be very difficult to leave and which will make it even more difficult to maintain economic development at current levels.

As recently as 9 July another terrorist attack occurred in Istanbul which police think was the work of local supporters of the idea of jihad. The American consulate was the target of the attack and three of their Turkish security guards were killed. Three terrorists died in an attempt to capture them after the attack on the diplomatic mission.

Officials tried not to link the terrorist attacks in Istanbul with the domestic politic battles, accusing the attackers of "blind terror". "These attacks show how inhumane and ruthless the perpetrators are," President Abdullah Gul's written address to the nation says. Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Istanbul with his ministers and said that the authorities will do their utmost to find the organizers and perpetrators of the attack and called for national unity.

Opposition parties tried to seize the initiative from the authorities, urging citizens to come out and demonstrate and say "no to terror". The head of the country's leading opposition party, Deniz Baykal of the Republican People's Party, suggested holding a mass demonstration in Istanbul, after he had visited the scene of the Gungeren tragedy. The authorities were not enthusiastic about the idea of mass demonstrations.

More people in the West believed in the theory that the PKK was behind the Istanbul bombings. The German Foreign Ministry called on citizens not to travel to Turkey because of the likelihood of PKK revenge for Berlin's ban on the broadcast of Kurdish Roj TV in Germany. The German authorities said they took their decision because the channel, considered the official voice of the PKK and broadcast from Denmark, is the mouthpiece of extremism. 

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Turkey would be supported in its fight against terrorism.

The events of the last few weeks show that August in Turkey will be even hotter in terms of political events. The ban on the activity of the ruling party will probably not be introduced, but this will not calm passions in the country. In the autumn Turkey will enter the latest election phase and it is crucial for the authorities to show the public the effectiveness of their anti-terror measures.