PERFECT EXCUSE

During his trip to Kazakhstan to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the country's new capital, Astana, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev held negotiations with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. The media remained quite tight-lipped about this meeting and simply said that the Russian president advised his Georgian counterpart "not to foment tension". The Russian media reported later that the issue of Russia's actions against Georgia was raised at a meeting between Dmitriy Medvedev and US President George Bush, who had visited Georgia in 2005, clearly displeasing Moscow.

Growing tension in the "frozen conflict" zones on Georgian territory has long become the object of international attention. For example, OSCE chairman and Finnish foreign minister, Alexander Stubb, expressed his deep concern. The diplomat called on the conflicting sides to take all measures to de-escalate tension and refrain from actions that foment tension. "I urge the parties to use all available tools to resume their dialogue and restore trust. The OSCE is following the situation closely and is ready to help the sides to lift tension," Stubb stressed.

There is something to worry about. Last weekend artillery, mortars and even aircraft were used in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone. Russian and South Ossetian sources assert that Tskhinvali and the two surrounding Ossetian villages of Dmenisi and Ubiat came under fire from howitzers first, as a result of which two people were killed and 11 were wounded, including two cameramen from a local TV station. South Ossetian representatives and Russian peacekeepers claim that the Georgians opened fire.

The headquarters of Georgian peacekeepers said, however, that the shelling was provoked by the Ossetians and peacekeepers. "None of our representatives left the territory. We were forced to return fire," they said. The deputy speaker of the Georgian parliament, Mikhail Machavariani, was even more specific. "Of course, we opened fire in response to a bandit raid from Tskhinvali," he said.

Such incidents are not rare. Tbilisi says that the villages of Tamarasheni and Nikozi always come under fire from Tskhinvali. Vehicles come under fire on the roundabout road connecting Georgian villages in the gorges of the Great and Small Lakhva Rivers.

A car carrying the head of the Tskhinvali region provisional administration, Dmitriy Sanakoyev, was fired on just there. A bus carrying children on an excursion to Tbilisi also came under fire there. As a result of an explosion, local police chief Nodar Bibilov was killed in the South Ossetian village of Dmenisi.

It must be noted that the incident with Sanakoyev does not seem to have been accidental. His motorcade exploded on a land mine near a peacekeeping checkpoint. After that, unknown people fired at the car with automatic weapons. Sanakoyev's guard returned fire, and the shootout continued for several minutes. As a result of the incident, three guards were wounded.

The presence of a figure like Sanakoyev in South Ossetia has upset the plans of many people. It must be remembered that Dmitriy Sanakoyev is in favour of a compromise with the legal authorities of Georgia and is ready to discuss a decree of autonomy for South Ossetia with Georgia. He won the alternative "presidential elections" in South Ossetia in November 2006. The "official" elections that were held on the same day were won by "president" Eduard Kokoyty. What is more, despite all the ballot-rigging, the number of the votes the latter gained was only slightly higher than those going to Sanakoyev. Later the Georgian parliament adopted a law on the establishment of a provisional administration in South Ossetia. In May 2007, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili instructed Dmitriy Sanakoyev to head this structure, which put Eduard Kokoyty in quite an awkward position.

The Russian website Gazeta says: "Since guns have started talking in South Ossetia, it is clear that a new conflict is closer than ever before. The armed forces of the unrecognized republic are 3,000 strong, with 15,000 reservists. They have 87 tanks, 95 cannons (including 72 howitzers) and mortars, 23,000 reactive Grad missiles, 180 armoured vehicles and three Mi-8 helicopters. It is an open question whether they will be able, in the event of war, to confront the modernized Georgian army which has modern Western weapons and greatly outnumbers the Ossetians."

The situation in Abkhazia also causes great concern. The media regularly reports explosions and terrorist attacks in the region. Two explosions rocked markets in Gagra and Sukhumi recently. Then a residential building in Sochi was attacked - it has not been proven yet that it was a terrorist attack. What is more, no link has been discovered with the explosions in Abkhazia, although there are certain suspicions. Then an explosive device went off in an open caf? which is located near the peacekeeping headquarters in the town of Gali. Four people were killed, including the head of a department of the Gali "state security service", Jansukh Muratia, as well as employees of the Gali sector of the UN mission, whose office is situated close to the caf?. Another six people were hospitalized with various wounds.

The Abkhaz separatists once more blamed all this on Georgia. "A representative of the Abkhaz president" in Gali District, Kishmaria, expressed confidence that the explosions were "the doing of the Georgian special services". The "president" himself, Sergey Bagapsh, spoke about a continuation of the "chain of terrorist attacks in Gagra and Sukhumi", saying that "Georgia has taken the path of state terrorism".

Tbilisi flatly denies the Abkhaz accusations. Kommersant quotes Georgian Security Council Secretary Aleksandr Lomaia as saying that "these incidents are not the first or the last. They happen in zones where there is no law and order. Such incidents are a reflection of the fight for the division of the shadow capital. This demonstrates to everyone, including to the Russian authorities, once again that the sovereignty of the central authorities of Georgia should be restored in the region as soon as possible".

In turn, the head of the information-analysis department of the Georgian Interior Ministry, Shota Utiashvili, described "Sukhumi's allegations about Georgia's involvement in the explosion in the Gali district centre as absurd and absolutely groundless". According to Utiashvili, "the Georgian side has nothing to do with this incident or any other incidents that took place in other cities and districts of the Abkhaz region" and "the de facto Sukhumi authorities are issuing groundless accusations against the Georgian side in order to discredit the policy of the Georgian authorities at all costs".

Indeed, the Abkhaz separatists have launched a political campaign around the recent series of explosions. The Abkhaz "border" with Georgia has been closed, allegedly in order to prevent new explosions from July until the end of the holiday season. The local "foreign minister", Sergey Shamba, told journalists that "the closure of the border is a temporary measure" aimed at ensuring the security of holiday-makers and the Abkhaz themselves. "We have no doubt that the latest explosions in Sukhumi and Gagra were carried out by the special services of Georgia," claimed Shamba.

However, Tbilisi is far from being the only, or likely, place where the masterminds behind the terrorist attacks should be sought. Georgia itself is sure that everything is related to criminal "showdowns" between the clans of Bagapsh and Khajimba in the unrecognized republic. In the interests of fairness, it must be noted that the Russian media reported recently that a division of property has begun here, which often involves the use of force. Khajimba never misses a chance to boast about his connections in the North Caucasus. Incidentally, it was precisely in the Abkhaz war that the notorious Shamil Basayev gained his first military "experience".

It is also clear that terrorist attacks are a perfect excuse to cry about a threat to "Russian citizens"; it is a convenient excuse to put military pressure on Georgia. In this case, the masterminds should be sought in Moscow, especially as Russia has repeatedly used terrorist "levers" against Georgia. However, the situation has changed slightly since Georgia arrested several officers of the group of Russian troops in the South Caucasus and their local "informers", mainly ethnic Armenians, on charges of espionage in September 2006. Moscow seems to have understood that Russian spies can no longer use the same methods on Georgian territory that brought fame to the author of terrorist attacks in Gori, GRU officer Anatoliy Sysoyev. The risk of hitting TV headlines is too high. Abkhazia seemed to be a zero-risk enterprise: Georgia can be securely blamed for every mortal sin, and the local "tame" police and courts will not produce any unexpected results.

Today analysts are quite evasive in answering the question as to who the explosions in Abkhazia harmed most of all. The Russian peacekeepers are still responsible for security in Abkhazia, despite Georgia's repeated protests. Georgian Minister of State Temur Iakobashvili, who visited New York immediately after the explosions, said that it was necessary to change the format of the peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia. "The Georgian side has repeatedly said that a decision might be made to end the current peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia under the aegis of the CIS, which affects the work of the UN observation mission," Iakobashvili said after a series of meetings at UN headquarters. According to the state minister, the Georgian side wants an answer from the UN: is this organization able to take a real role in settling the conflict?