SPECTRE OF WAR STALKING THE CAUCASUS!

When we were preparing the latest issue, we picked a couple of topics for the editorial. But the worsening of the already difficult relations between Russia and Georgia left us no choice but to return to this subject. Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi were far from good, anyway, but the beginning of July showed that the neighbours had almost reached the verge of open war. For the first time in the history of its strained relations with Tbilisi, Russia admitted the deliberate flights of four Russian air force planes over South Ossetia.

Moscow openly said that a "brief sortie" had been made to prevent an attack by Georgian armed forces on South Ossetia. As was to be expected, Georgia's reaction was extremely negative. Tbilisi harshly condemned Moscow, describing the Russian statement as "an unprecedented admission of aggressive intent". The increase in tension occurred in the countdown to the start of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's "anti-crisis" visit to Tbilisi. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili joked that this was how the Russian air force "welcomed" the American visitor.

This time Georgia did not stop at accusations and complaints against Moscow and recalled its ambassador from Russia on the usual diplomatic pretext of "holding consultations", while the deputy chairman of the Georgian parliament's committee for defence and security, Nika Rurua, even announced that his country was planning in future to bring down Russian air force planes. At the same time, Georgia's Foreign Ministry said that "open aggression from the Russian Federation poses a threat to peace and security not only in Georgia but also in the whole Caucasus region".

The Georgian Foreign Ministry also announced that from now on it would support the idea of the "unilateral" resolution of the frozen conflicts on its territory without the participation of Moscow. In so doing Tbilisi rejected Moscow's cooperation in settling the conflicts on its territory and drew the USA and West as a whole into the Ossetian and Abkhaz problems. However, as the Western press pointed out, the US secretary of state's reaction was "not wholly pro-Georgian", which did not escape the attention of analysts. True, Rice reminded Moscow that Russia "needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problem and not contributing to it". But she added, "The violence needs to stop … whoever is perpetrating it." The Russian media immediately spotted a hint to the Georgian leadership. Condoleezza Rice's restrained reaction may well be because Washington is nurturing the idea of international consultations on the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. 

A senior US official accompanying Dr Rice on the trip to Tbilisi said that the foreign ministers of the USA, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and Georgia could meet in a month's time to discuss the subject of Georgia. The same source said that the USA is also inviting the UN, EU and Abkhaz separatists to take part in the discussions. The American plan envisages stationing international policemen in Abkhazia. This meets the interests of Georgia which wants to replace the Russian peacekeeping contingent based in its separatist regions.

Meanwhile, Germany has proposed a settlement plan under which Abkhazia should not obstruct the return of 250,000 Georgian refugees to their homes in return for a guarantee from Tbilisi not to use military force. But Moscow has its arguments, so to speak. Russia has already warned that the possible extension to Georgia of the official status of a candidate for NATO membership makes any settlement impossible. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hastily reacted to the US secretary of state's statement on the issue. In a meeting with the president of the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia, Sergey Bagapsh, Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow was concerned at US statements that the extension to Georgia of a NATO membership action plan could help resolve the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He said that this step would simply erase the chances of a peaceful settlement to the problem. Lavrov also called on Tbilisi to sign agreements with Sukhumi and Tskinvali on the non-use of force. 

In parallel Russia submitted to the UN Security Council a draft resolution which says that all parties must unconditionally reject the use of force. Georgia does not agree with the draft. The Russian Foreign Ministry said in no uncertain terms that Moscow has information that the Georgian leadership was planning this spring to conduct a military operation to seize Abkhazia. Russia said that Georgia was deliberately fanning the flames in order to replace the peacekeeping contingent.

The Georgian side has just as many arguments in support of its position. Tbilisi is certain that the recent events in the conflict regions are the result of the desire to block Georgia's attempts to join NATO. Be that as it may, it should not be forgotten in the final analysis that this concerns the lives of tens of thousands of civilians, the territorial integrity of an entire country and the future of the region and the world.