IT'S CLEAR ILHAM ALIYEV WILL WIN

Presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on 15 October. After discussion the Milli Maclis has made several changes to the Electoral Code in this regard. Editorial corrections aside, most attention and disagreements have centred on the reduction in the length of the election campaign from four months to 75 days, the stopping of the registration of candidates on the basis of an election deposit and the increase in the size of the election funds of presidential and parliamentary candidates. Despite objections from the opposition, the most politically critical question, the procedure for the formation of election commissions, has remained unchanged. 

Although there is only about a month to go until the official start of the election campaign, the political situation in the country scarcely resembles an election build-up. Some political forces and alliances have rushed to declare a boycott of the elections, while other parties and leaders have declared their intention to take part. But neither have any real chance of influencing the political processes to their own liking. 

It is obvious to the absolute majority of local and foreign analysts and observers that the current head of state, Ilham Aliyev, will win this autumn's presidential election in Azerbaijan. The results of opinion polls are in his favour, even if the opposition does manage to put forward a single candidate, which is highly unlikely to judge from the mood in the opposition camp. 

Ilham Aliyev has on his side the New Azerbaijan (Yeni Azarbaycan) Party, which has several thousand members, and a large number of allied parties and influential public organizations. 

The country's current president is well ahead in terms of public confidence, according to the results of most opinion polls. Respondents in a poll conducted at the start of the year by the Puls-R sociological service, led by the author of this article, felt that the atmosphere in the country was stable while people's material situation was improving, albeit slowly. Interest in the forthcoming elections was very high, as can be seen in the charts. A nationwide poll held in mid-May by the Ray Monitoring Centre produced similar results. 

As for the democratic nature of the forthcoming elections the largest group are the pragmatists who think that some infringements are inevitable, but are still sure that the election results will reflect the real will of the people. The overwhelming majority of respondents do not see any alternative to the current head of state. 

Mention of the name of Mehriban Aliyeva as an alternative produces mainly a positive reaction and shows her increasing political clout. On the other hand, it is clear that she will not stand in the elections and her rating can be given to Ilham Aliyev. In the Puls-R survey the leader of the Musavat opposition party, Isa Qambar, was mentioned more than others as a realistic rival to the head of state, but Isa Qambar's level of support is not great. This is confirmed by the Ray Monitoring Centre survey, which found that 1.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the Musavat leader. Although he has said that he will stand, Isa Qambar is, therefore, now wavering and a final decision on his participation in the election has not yet been taken. 

Other possible candidates gained 5.6 per cent in the Puls-R poll (the question was an open one and the respondents themselves named the candidates Ali Karimli, Lala Sovkat, Rasul Quliyev, Eldar Namazov, Etibar Mammadov and Ayaz Mutallibov).

Former parliament speaker Rasul Quliyev and former President Ayaz Mutallibov cannot stand in the elections, as they have not lived in the country for a long time and have criminal cases against them. PFAP Chairman Ali Karimli and Liberal Democrat leader Lala Sovkat have said that they do not intend to stand and called for a boycott of the presidential elections.  They say that this is because the authorities have not agreed to change the procedure for the formation of the Central Election Commission and the country does not have the minimum conditions for free and fair elections. But under Azerbaijani legislation an active boycott is considered to be an obstacle to the expression of the people's will and is not allowed, while the lack of a minimum turnout at the elections makes a boycott pointless. 

Etibar Mammadov is preferring to play a waiting game and is not revealing his intentions. It's easy to understand him. After numerous splits the National Independence Party, which he heads, is leading a miserable existence. At the last presidential elections he got just 3 per cent of the vote himself and suffered a complete collapse at the parliamentary elections, coming third in his constituency. 

Eldar Namazov, leader of the In the Name of Azerbaijan public forum, is showing the greatest desire to stand in the presidential elections. He was denied registration at the last presidential elections and is now taking up the cause with unbridled enthusiasm. Namazov is positioning himself as an independent candidate, but hopes for the support of some of the political opposition. His efforts have yet to produce any result, and not one of the reasonably well-known parties is ready to nominate him and help his campaign. Under the law, non-governmental organizations do not have the right to take part in a political campaign, so he can count on the support only of individuals and civil society activists. It will be difficult for him to get the 40,000 valid signatures he needs to register as a presidential candidate in the tight time-frame. Nevertheless, Eldar Namazov has set up something like a campaign team and is doing the groundwork. 

The other candidates worth mentioning are Fazil Qazanfaroglu, Milli Maclis deputy and chairman of the Great Creation Party, and Iqbal Agazada, Milli Maclis deputy and chairman of the Hope Party. The co-chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Araz Alizada, the co-chairman of the local Green party, Mais Gulaliyev and others have declared their intention to stand. If they get sources of funding and access to television air time and can practise a bit of populism, then these candidates can take some votes off other, more influential opposition candidates. 

If the opposition does manage to consolidate around a single candidate, this will improve their chances of at least putting up some real competition to Ilham Aliyev, if not of winning.  However, it's difficult to imagine this if you know the mood amongst the opposition. 

So taking into account the correlation of resources and the results of opinion polls, it is possible to say that the current president, Ilham Aliyev, could easily ensure his own democratic re-election.