THE HOLY LAND AWAITS PEACE

The Middle East seems to be entering a period of great change. The Arab-Israeli conflict, which has kept the world community in suspense for more than 60 years, may be settled by the end of this year. Only a true aspiration for peace from all the people involved in this conflict can put an end to the brutal confrontation that has claimed lives over several generations of Palestinians and Israelis.

"Vortices" of hostility

The last session of the international Quartet (USA, Russia, the EU and the UN) to settle the Palestinian-Israeli conflict affirmed that peace in the Middle East should be achieved this year. To this end it is necessary to eliminate at least some of the fundamental disagreements between the two sides. First, there is the problem of Palestinian refugees (their number has already reached 4.5 million because, according to a UN resolution, refugee status is also accorded to the descendants of those who left their homes after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948), and second, the territorial issue (the status of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the final delineation of the border between Israel and Palestine and, of course, the fate of Jerusalem, which the Jewish state has proclaimed its capital). There is still a long way to go to reach agreement on these issues because there is such a gap between the respective positions and there is so much mutual hatred. This has been seen recently in the frequent Israeli missile strikes on the Gaza Strip and attacks on Jewish settlements from the Palestinian enclave, as well as attacks on Israeli blockhouses. Israel halted fuel supplies to the Gaza Strip after a militant attack on the Nahal Oz terminal on the Palestinian-Israeli border. This has had a negative impact on the lives of Palestinians and on the activity of humanitarian organizations, including the UN office, which ceased the distribution of humanitarian aid to residents of the Gaza Strip, due to lack of fuel.

Meanwhile, what gives us hope in this "vortex" of hostility is that the leaders of Israel and Palestine continue their search for a solution to the conflict. For Israelis, this is the only way to ensure security and for Palestinians - to establish their own independent state.

"The fight for the future of the Middle East is under way"

The main "driving force" of the current stage of the peace process in the Middle East is the USA. It seems likely that Washington is finally convinced that the road to global and intercultural concord, which could help reduce anti-American sentiment around the world, goes by way of a settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. In turn, this should be based on the establishment of a state called Palestine. President George Bush is trying to reconcile the Palestinians and Israelis once and for all, before the expiry of his presidential term in January 2009. This was the aim of the Annapolis peace conference in the USA in November last year, which was intended to ennoble the bellicose foreign policy of the 43rd US president. Although there has been no major breakthrough yet, the main goal of this meeting was achieved - the Palestinian-Israeli talks, interrupted seven years ago, finally resumed. As a result, there is hope that the process of settling the most painful and protracted conflict of modern times has broken through an impasse.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmud Abbas, said in a joint statement: "We express our aspiration to put an end to the violence, suffering and decades of conflict between our peoples. We intend to enforce a culture of non-violence and to counter terrorism and hatred among both Palestinians and Israelis." Israel and Palestine, under the aegis of the USA, agreed to set up a permanent negotiating group to sign a peace agreement, and Washington undertook to monitor and assess this process.

More than a month after the conference in Annapolis Bush said, during his tour of the Middle East, that "the fight for the future of the Middle East is under way". "The Israelis and Palestinians understand that if they help each other, this will allow them to secure their own interests. Both need "an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state" which will "allow the Palestinians themselves to obtain freedom and Israelis to achieve the goal that whole generations have striven for - to live in peace with their neighbours," said the US president.

George Bush is currently planning a new visit to the Middle East to participate in ceremonies to mark the 60th anniversary of the Jewish state. In this regard, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has already visited the region. In a spirit of patronage to both sides in the conflict, she called on Israel to secure freedom of travel for Palestinians on the West Bank and on Palestinians "to assume responsibility for security in the region".

"Turkish mission"

In recent times, Turkey has been seen as a country which could make an invaluable contribution to the Middle East peace process. Since April 2007, Turkey has acted as mediator between Israel and Syria, establishing itself as one of the key regional players. Ankara's mission has already yielded some positive results. According to sources in the Damascus government, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in a conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he was ready to return the Golan Heights occupied by Israel during the 1967 war. This was preceded by a statement from Syrian President Bashar al-Asad that "friendly countries are trying to establish contacts with Syria and Israel".

Such judgments have been made many times in the past, but have turned out later to have raised false hopes. This time the situation is slightly different. The information about a possible agreement between Tel-Aviv and Damascus was confirmed by the authoritative Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Jimmy Carter, who is also trying to mediate in talks on a Middle East settlement. Following a meeting with Syrian leader Al-Asad, he said that 85 per cent of the issues between Israel and Syria had already been solved, including the delineation of the border, water resources, the creation of a security zone and securing the presence of a peacekeeping force.

There is a fragile hope that the sides will reach agreement, but it is clear that Tel-Aviv and Damascus are really very interested in a swift reconciliation. For Israel this means recognition within the Arab world and increasing guarantees of security. For Syria, this means improvements in its relations with the West and major investments in the Syrian economy.

Disunited Palestine

A glimmer of hope has also appeared in the situation around the radical Palestinian movement Hamas. After its victory in the 2006 elections to the Palestinian parliament, conflict broke out between this organization and Fath, led by Mahmud Abbas, as a result of which Palestine split into two parts. Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, leaving the West Bank to Fath. For this reason, negotiations between representatives of Israel and the Palestinian Authority cover only that part of Palestinian territory controlled by forces loyal to Abbas. In other words, the Olmert government is holding peace talks with the Fath administration while, at the same time, waging a war against Hamas.

At the end of April news came of the readiness of the Palestinian radicals to sign a peace agreement with Israel. This surfaced during meetings between members of Hamas and Egyptian mediators, as well as Jimmy Carter. However, Hamas is setting its own conditions for peace - the opening of checkpoints and the end of any hostilities on the territory run by them. But facts are facts. This radical Palestinian group, which has denied the right of Israel to exist and which is notorious for its terrorist activity, admitted, for the first time, the possibility of the establishment of a Jewish state.

In this context, it is clear that division in Palestine is an even greater drag on the peace process in the Middle East than the Arab-Israeli conflict itself. It is difficult to disagree with Russian Foreign Ministr Sergey Lavrov who said that "the restoration of Palestinian unity is the key task; without a solution here all other actions, including the settlement of the humanitarian problem in Gaza and the clinching of a final agreement between the Palestinians and Israelis, will not be effective".

"Peace for the whole world starts here"

Ehud Olmert and Mahmud Abbas held another meeting in Jerusalem on 5 May, which confirmed that, despite numerous "buts", there is a real chance of a settlement to the Middle East conflict. It is not impossible that the peace conference expected to be held in Moscow this summer will see a breakthrough. This will be a continuation of Annapolis, with emphasis on a comprehensive Arab-Israeli settlement, not just on Palestine, but also involving Syria and Lebanon.

The Arab-Israeli confrontation has become that same "worm-eaten apple" of international relations from which the worm of the "war of civilizations" - the greatest political threat of modern times - has crawled out. Both sides in the conflict, and every single member of the international community involved, are tired of the many years of hostility in a land which is sacred to three religions - hostility that weakens the foundations of global stability. If the peace process fails, the region may remain without peace for another decade and experience many other upsurges in violence. Of course, the people of the long-suffering Holy Land do not want this. "Peace for the whole world starts here," Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas said. And this is undeniably true.