AMERICAN RACE

The election race in the USA is in the world media spotlight. It is not just that American media companies are increasingly dominant in the global dissemination of information. It is rather more significant that the USA remains the only superpower in the world, despite all the talk of a "multi-polar" world, the growing might of China and the "revival" of Russia. Most believe that whoever wins the elections, no transformation is expected in Washington's foreign and domestic policy, as revolutions in this country have long been a thing of the past. As a result, the huge interest in the US presidential elections is explained by the influence that the White House exerts on international relations. Moreover, the election campaign itself, especially at its current stage - the primaries, is actually very exciting.

The American system for electing a president has several stages. Strictly speaking, what is happening in the USA today is not even an election campaign in terms of the law, but a struggle within the Republican and Democratic parties over the nomination of candidates for the national election.

Analysts regard this stage as the most intriguing, as it is accompanied by behind-the-scenes "plots", changes in the fortunes of the contenders and a fight for every single vote. Throughout this period those contenders are targeted by TV cameras and they make speeches, while journalists are looking for the smallest skeletons in their cupboards. Formally, all talk is about the election of delegates to the Republican and Democrat party conventions, at which the parties nominate their single candidate. The contenders are trying to enlist support from delegates from the various states, where internal party plebiscites are held. This may be in the form of "caucuses", i.e. voting by activists, or "primaries" - preliminary elections.

This year, the Republicans are regarded as the underdogs - due to the unpopularity of the incumbent, President George Bush, they have only a slim chance of winning the election. This assumes, of course, that the protracted race between the Democrat candidates does not change everything - neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama intends to retreat. The Republicans have already identified their candidate - John McCain. He is also supported by the Azerbaijani and Turkish lobbies in the USA, whereas Armenian lobbyists favour Barack Obama.

Another round of "primaries" - this time in Indiana and North Carolina - did not clarify the outcome of the "Democratic" presidential race. In Indiana, Hillary Clinton won by a slight margin, gaining 52 per cent of the vote and Obama received 48 per cent. In North Carolina the votes were distributed the other way round: here Obama gained 56 per cent and Clinton 42 per cent. During the primaries in Indiana, the votes of 72 delegates to the convention were at stake and in North Carolina - 115 delegates; they will be distributed proportionally between Clinton and Obama according to the results.

In order to become the party's official candidate, a Democratic contender needs to be supported by at least 2,025 delegates to the convention. Neither Obama nor Clinton is able to reach this figure for the time being and more and more analysts believe that they will fail to do so by the appointed time.

The votes have been cast in such a way that neither Obama nor Clinton wants to make way and play a secondary role, i.e. to become vice-president. For example, Barack Obama said after his victory in North Carolina that he was even closer to becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Party. "We only need (to gain the votes of) 200 delegates in order to guarantee our nomination as candidate for the US presidency," he said.

Senator Clinton also said, after her victory in Indiana, that she will continue her struggle. "Now, thanks to you, it will be full speed ahead to the White House," she said. Pointing out that "now it is time to move to West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and other states", Clinton also let it be known that these next primaries will be a new test.

However, analysts predict that even the new primaries will not identify an outright winner, especially as Super-Tuesdays, Super-Mega-Tuesdays and voting in the states with most electors are now complete.

In this situation the votes of so-called super-delegates to the convention - governors, senators, members of the US Congress House of Representatives, prominent party functionaries and other authoritative Democrats - assume special importance. Unlike the delegates elected during the preliminary elections, super-delegates are not bound by any mandate and may vote for whoever they like during the convention. At present, Obama is supported by 257 and Clinton by 267 super-delegates. Another 270 super-delegates have yet to make up their minds. That is to say, there is no clarity here. In a word, the chances are low that the Democrats will close ranks by the party convention, which is why most are recalling that when rivalry lasted this long in the past, the Democrats lost the final race. Strictly speaking, there is a way out of this situation: the candidates could form a pairing - "president/vice-president". But who will be first and who will be second in this case? Before the primaries in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton suggested that Barack Obama accept the role of "vice-president", but her proposal was turned down: after all, Obama is in the lead. Nor does Hillary herself want to accept the role of vice-president: she did not spend eight years as "first lady" in the White House, i.e. in the shadow of the president, in order to accept the role of vice-president.

Most believe that the Democrats missed their last chance in Pennsylvania to identify their candidate on the basis of voting in the states. Many analysts are sure that if Barack Obama had won there, Hillary Clinton would have had no basis to struggle on. But she won. Against this background, the rivalry between Clinton and Obama is becoming sharper, deepening the split within the Democrats, and the Republicans can only rub their hands with glee. The scandal surrounding Barack Obama was the most sensational one; to be more exact, it was not about Obama himself, but Chicago pastor Jeremiah Wright, one of whose parishioners was the young Barack Obama. Wright married Obama and his wife and baptized his children. He came out with some scandalous statements that many TV channels are still broadcasting today. Although Obama has dissociated himself from Wright and his statements, observers believe he may already have lost the support of middle-class white conservatives - a considerable section of the "Democratic" electorate.

Either way, more and more prominent figures in the Democratic Party are advising their candidates "to smoke the pipe". The former senator from South Dakota, George McGovern, was the first to directly advise Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race for the sake of unity in the Democratic Party. He said on CNN that the results of the last round of the primaries in North Carolina and Indiana show that Clinton "has almost no chance of securing nomination from the Democratic party" for the 4 November 2008 elections. McGovern, who officially supported Clinton's candidacy in October last year, said that he will now support her rival - Senator Barack Obama. "It is time to think seriously about uniting the party around a single candidate," McGovern said. In his opinion it is important for the Democratic Party to make up its mind about its presidential candidate as soon as possible - the struggle between Clinton and Obama cannot continue up to or during the convention. McGovern recalled that this happened at the Democratic conventions of 1968 and 1972, when candidates were nominated following a fierce political fight that weakened the party and undermined its image in the eyes of voters. As a result, on both occasions the Republican candidate Richard Nixon won by a large margin. McGovern is sure that Obama "has almost secured his nomination, because he is very close to getting the support of most of the delegates elected to the convention". "I hope that Clinton will make a decision to end her election campaign as soon as possible so that we can concentrate our efforts on a single candidate who can conquer the White House in November," he said.