IT'S STARTED

We wrote in our last issue about the threat posed by the Kosovo precedent to Europe which hastily recognized the Serbian territory's unilateral declaration of independence. The bad example has turned out to be infectious. Less than a month after the declaration of Kosovo's independence, two million ethnic Hungarians living in various countries in Europe demanded wide autonomy from their metropolitan countries. They cite Kosovo not as a precedent but as a reason to pay heed to ethnic problems. 

Straight after the declaration of Kosovo's independence, Hungary began to express concern that the Serbians would direct their anger against the Hungarians of Vojvodina - a northern Serbian province which already has broad autonomous powers. The approximately 300,000 Hungarians of Vojvodina - the largest minority in the two-million strong population - think Pristina's independence is a precedent. There is a 1.4 million Hungarian minority in Romania, around 7 per cent of the country's population, while around 10 per cent (560,000) of Slovakia's population is Hungarian. Just think - three new Hungarian state entities in Europe at once.

The Kosovo virus has spread more rapidly than many other "infections" in world history. The Basque country saw something to imitate in Kosovo's declaration of independence while Corsican separatists joyfully supported Pristina. There is also Catalonia in Spain, Flanders in Belgium, Lombardy in northern Italy…

Western diplomats claim that the case of Kosovo is unique and cannot be a precedent. That is perfectly true - every case is unique in its own way. However, we will soon find that the map of Europe resembles a medieval map, a patchwork quilt of princedoms. 

Every situation does have its peculiarities but one thing is clear: many people want to make Kosovo a precedent. By recognizing Kosovo's independence, the USA and some European states have made it easier for Russia and other interested countries to strengthen their links with unrecognized states. This process has already begun. True, Russia is saying that it does not intend to recognize the independence of the self-declared republics on the territory of neighbouring states. At the same time, in response to the West's recognition of Kosovan independence Moscow immediately began to change the format of relations with the unrecognized entities on the territory of its neighbours. 

The Committee for CIS Affairs and Links with Compatriots held hearings in the Russian Federation State Duma on 13 March "On the state of conflict regulation on CIS territory and appeals to the Russian Federation to recognize the independence of the Republic of Abkhazia, the Republic of South Ossetia and the Pridnestrovye Moldavian Republic". Of course, the State Duma did not plan to take any decision on recognizing the independence of these entities. However, the draft recommendations to the government included proposals to open Russian missions in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovye and to establish tariff free trade with South Ossetia, Abkhazia and others. Before this Russia had already unilaterally lifted economic sanctions on Abkhazia, introduced in 1996 by joint agreement of the CIS countries, and this provoked a negative reaction in the West. The USA expressed its regret at Moscow's action and called for Georgia's territorial integrity to be respected. Also exactly one month ago Russia called for Serbia's territorial integrity to be respected. Whether Kosovo is a precedent or not, it will often be used as a pretext in the struggles between the powerful of this world. In this instance it is again a matter of confrontation between Russia and NATO. It is no chance occurrence that Moscow is concentrating attention on the problem of recognizing the separatist entities in Georgia and Moldova, but not Azerbaijan, which is in no great hurry to join NATO. It is unlikely that the Armenian separatists in Karabakh would not want to join Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovye's appeal for independence. The appeal did not have their signature, or to be more exact there was no need for it. As Kommersant says, this document (the appeal of the unrecognized republics for recognition) is still just the Kremlin's "insurance" against NATO action on Georgia. "If by the start of the April summit in Bucharest it emerges that Georgia will be invited to join an action plan on NATO membership, Moscow will certainly make use of its insurance and take other action to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as subjects of international law," the newspaper writes. On the other hand, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin has not hidden that "Russia is ready to guarantee the restoration of Moldova's territorial integrity in exchange for its refusal to join NATO". He continued, "No-one is saying that European integration has to occur via NATO. We are working with the alliance within the framework of programmes that do not envisage joining the organization." By recognizing Kosovo's independence, the West has not put itself in the best of positions. "The Kosovo time bomb" that we talked about in our last issue is already ticking. Time is passing and the bomb could blow up at any moment.