END OF A LEGEND

The "legendary leader of the Cuban revolution," prime minister and president of Cuba, the "invincible comandante" who, according to the Cuban authorities has survived more than 600 attempts on his life, an "incredibly strong and charismatic personality", a "brave and honest man, "a brilliant lawyer", a "romantic hero", a "tyrant who courted the country like a mistress", a person with entrenched anti-American and anti-globalization views, the "most terrible of dictators" - all these are descriptions of Fidel Castro, Cuba's leader since 1959. He turned out to be immortal. Sixty percent of living islanders were born and raised under his rule. Presidents come and go, nations disappear and are created, the Cold War began and ended, but Castro still ruled Cuba.

"His last bow"

However, age and illness can have done what CIA agents failed to accomplish over many years: on 19 February 2008, the Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma published a letter by Fidel Castro in which he wrote that he would no longer occupy top government positions. The document noted that El Comandante was no longer able to shoulder responsibility for the state as this requires the "mobility and total commitment" of which he is no longer physically capable.

This news did not come as a surprise. Back in December, a letter was read on behalf of "immortal Fidel," in which he discussed his possible resignation. In the summer of 2006, the comandante, who had undergone major intestinal surgery, handed over the reins of power to his younger brother Raul, who has effectively ruled the country since then. Nonetheless, the authorities were still promising that Fidel Castro would return before the 2008 elections and, indeed, he was on the list of parliamentary election candidates. On 20 January, the comandante was again elected deputy to the National Assembly, the Cuban Parliament. On 24 February, the National Assembly was to elect the members of the National Council and its chairman (head of state) at its first session. But a few days before then, Castro withdrew his candidature. As a result, the Cuban Parliament elected 76-year-old Raul Castro as Chairman of the State Council. One of the leaders of the Communist Party of Cuba, Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, was elected Deputy Chairman of the State Council.

"Not one step backwards!"

Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz was born on a sugar plantation in Biran, near Mayari, in the modern-day province of Holguin - then a part of the now-defunct Oriente province. He was an intellectually gifted student, which, however, did not prevent (and possibly even encouraged) him to take part in a rebellion of the workers at his father's sugar plantation at the age of 13. According to eyewitnesses, the leadership qualities of a romantic revolutionary were already evident. In 1950, Castro graduated from the law school of the University of Havana, but he was not destined to begin a legal career.  While still at the university, he joined the Partido Ortodoxo and, during the 1952 election campaign, Castro was nominated for a seat in the Cuban Parliament. But on 10 March 1952, General Fulgencio Batista led a coup d'?tat, successfully overthrowing the government of President Carlos Prio Socarras and cancelling the election. This persuaded Castro to create an underground organization to overthrow the dictator and transform himself from lawyer into revolutionary. A failed attack on the Moncada barracks resulted in imprisonment for Fidel. It was during his trial that he delivered his famous defence speech, "History will absolve me," which caused a wave of mass protests all over Cuba and the 26 of July revolutionary movement was created. In 1955, Castro was amnestied and emigrated to Mexico and, on 26 November 1956, Castro and a group of 81 followers, mostly Cuban exiles, set out from Veracruz aboard the yacht Granma for the purpose of starting a rebellion in Cuba. A war of attrition with Batista's army lay ahead but finally, on 31 December 1958, the general fled the country. In February 1959, Castro took the post of head of state and, in 1976, he declared himself chairman of the State Council of the Cuban National Assembly, having thereby combined the posts of head of state and head of government.

What was perhaps the most serious crisis of the Cold War era, one which nearly brought the world to nuclear disaster, is also associated with Castro. In January 1961, Havana and Washington severed diplomatic relations. The United States were very irritated by nationalizations of US property on the island and by Fidel's contacts with the Soviet leadership. After coming to power, Castro did issue an order to nationalize the entire economy, including transport, communications, mass media and most of the land. Before that, more than a half of the sugar industry, more than 90% of the electric energy sector, oil and mining sectors, industry, communications and tourism were controlled by the United States. In addition, on 14 April 1961, Castro declared that the Cuban revolution was a socialist one. The differences between the neighbours on opposite shores of the Caribbean Sea reached their peak when they escalated into the so-called Cuban missile crisis. To this day, many experts say that it was a miracle that a nuclear war was avoided back then. After last-minute talks, US President John Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed that the Soviet Union would withdraw its missile-carrying vessels from Cuban waters and the United States would refrain from attempts to topple the Cuban regime and withdraw nuclear weapons from Turkey.

In the meantime, during Fidel Castro's rule, Cubans took part in guerrilla wars in Bolivia and Venezuela; they fought in Angola on the side of pro-Soviet forces (1975), helped Ethiopia in 1978 to parry a Somalian assault, and provided assistance to rebels in other countries: Ghana, Algeria, Mozambique, Nicaragua and Salvador. In 1968, Castro supported the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. Inside Cuba itself, experts say, several anti-government revolts were repressed and many citizens who disagreed with the comandante's policy were arrested. A total of more than 2 million people emigrated from Cuba, mostly to the United States. Incidentally, one of Castro's daughters fled from Cuba in 1993.

Economic difficulties and growing numbers of defectors, many of whom tried to reach US shores using any available floating object, became particularly evident when Cuba lost not only its main political ally, but also its main trading partner, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As a result, the Castro government, which had been suffering from the economic blockade by Washington for many years, was even forced to relax its ideological grip on the country by allowing foreign investment in some sectors of the economy, in particular tourism, and then allowed the circulation of foreign currencies in Cuba. In December 2000, after Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Cuba, Castro resumed economic relations with Russia, but relations between Cuba and Russia remain cold to this day.

"Bush, hunger and death"

US-Cuban relations merit special mention. Fifteen years after the Cuban missile crisis, the two countries made an attempt to re-establish diplomatic relations, but the attempt was thwarted. In October 2000, the US House of Representative revised the trade embargo against Cuba and allowed limited shipments of food and medicines to the country. For his part, Castro condemned the 11 September 2001 terrorist acts in the United States. At the same time, he strongly criticized the US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Fidel Castro summarized his accusations against the US Administration in his relatively recent article, eloquently entitled "Bush, hunger and death." However, El Comandante has been an irreconcilable critic of every White House tenant since the 1950's. Here is what Castro once said about the US political system: "There are two parties there, which are so similar in methods, goals and intentions that, in practice, they have created the world's most perfect single-party system. Their politics boils down to bickering and clashes of vanities within an established economic and social system."

Of course, Washington never hesitated to retaliate. As George Bush once said, the White House is working hard to bring about changes in Cuba, instead of just waiting for them. In particular, experts say that this implies measures like the allocation of funds to provide uncensored information to Cubans via the internet and satellite communications. In addition, a number of US laws were adopted specifically to weaken the Castro regime. For example, Cubans who live in the United States can only visit their relatives in Cuba once in three years and are not allowed to send them more than $100 per month. It is notable that one of the front running US presidential candidates, Barack Obama, has already promised that should he win, he will cancel these limitations because, in his opinion, "unlimited rights" for Cuban emigrants is an excellent way of demonstrating the advantages of the democratic system to their countrymen. In fact, however, Obama is not so much concerned about Cubans' rights as about their votes in the next presidential election. After all, according to official statistics, there are about 1.5 million Cuban immigrants in the United States (in 1980, the United States passed a law which allowed Cuban immigrants to stay in the country if they made it to the US coast). At the same time, another Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, is more reserved on this issue. She argues that Havana should first demonstrate progress in the field of human rights and should release political prisoners.

Washington has been counting down to Castro's death for a long time now. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack recently said straightforwardly that, "Fidel Castro's invalidation or his demise would be an important landmark for the Cuban people." And in 2005, a secret CIA report was published, claiming that Fidel has been suffering from Parkinson's disease since 1998 and that his health would deteriorate in the near future. Back then, Castro responded with a 5-hour speech and said that he had never been in better health. But now he has stepped down, nonetheless….

In the summer of 2007, the US Administration published a stage-by-stage plan for a change of regime in Cuba. The report was prepared by the commission for assistance to a free Cuba, which was co-chaired by State Secretary Condoleezza Rice and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez.  The plan envisaged "democratizing" the island within 180 days of Fidel Castro's death. The commission suggested that the US Government spend $80 million to reform the island. US-trained judges and policemen, as well as US experts, would arrive in Cuba to help hold free and fair elections.

Cubazuela?

It seems that Raul Castro will have to deal with all these problems. They say that he is a great supporter of the "Chinese model" of Communism and would not mind at all if some economic reforms were carried out; something he stated clearly right after his election. Raul Castro also stressed that dealing with the most pressing problems troubling his fellow countrymen would be his top priority. However, he still seeks his older brother's advice on all issues related to defence, foreign policy and the social and economic development of the country.

No one knows, though, how long Raul Castro will manage to stay in power. Besides the US "democratization plans" of the US, there are also rumours that Raul's health is even weaker than his brother's. And he is not much younger than El Comandante…

So from where should we expect the new Cuban leader to appear? In his capacity as defence minister and supreme military commander, Raul Castro exercises full control over the elite of the Revolutionary Armed Forces which, it is thought, keeps the entire Cuban state under control.  Possibly the new comandante should be expected to emerge from this stratum. Besides, there were rumours that Fidel Castro might be succeeded by Cuban State Council Executive Committee Chairman, Carlos Lage, who, in the last year and a half, has more than once represented the country at international forums. Analysts consider 56-year-old Lage the third most important figure in the Cuban leadership. There have even been reports that the Cuban Parliament might decide to carry out constitutional reform and separate the powers of the head of state and head of the government. In that case, the posts of State Council chairman and head of the Council of Ministers would be occupied by two different people. This has not happened yet, but it is quite possible in the future.

It should also be noted in this context that Cuba's ties with Venezuela have been strengthened of late. This process started in 1998, when Hugo Chavez, the anti-globalist president of Venezuela, came to power. They say that Chavez has taken over the "red flag of struggle" from the hands of the declining Fidel Castro. It would be very apposite to remember the words of El Comandante's telegram to the Venezuelan president: "I can calmly pass away now that I know that the cause to which I dedicated my whole conscious life is in good hands."

At present, Venezuela is the closest partner and strategic ally of Cuba. In December 2004, the two countries signed an agreement which broadened and deepened an earlier agreement on cooperation.  The document paved the way for the Bolivarian Alternative for Latin America (ALBA), which Bolivia, Nicaragua and Dominica also signed. The ALBA was created as an alternative to the North American Free Trade Agreement initiated by the US Administration. And recently, Hugo Chavez proposed the creation of an anti-imperialist military alliance within ALBA to protect its members from the United States. Any act of aggression by the United States and/or its allies would be considered an act of aggression against the entire bloc. Chavez is considered capable of resisting foreign influences (the United States, European Union and Cuban communities abroad) and preserving Cuba's political system in the form created by Fidel Castro. More and more experts recognize the Venezuelan president as regional leader. At the same time, Chavez, like Castro, is often called an extraordinary man. True or not, he is certainly full of energy.

As a result, discussions have begun on the creation of a federation for the future, under the name of either Vencuba or Cubazuela.

One final comment. According to most estimates, Cuba's oil reserves may amount to 9 billion barrels of high-quality oil. However, Havana cannot currently export its oil: the country lacks seaport capacity as well as refineries and tank farms. So friendship with Caracas might come in handy for Cuba. In the mean time, the two countries have signed a $100 million contract for the modernization of the oil terminal and oil refinery which remain from the Soviet era.

It is clear that the smell of oil will attract other major international players to the region. So let us wait and see. Something tells me that the future holds many interesting developments.