THE VICTORY OF TROUBLESOME SERZH

Presidential elections have been held in Armenia as Robert Kocharyan's term in office expires. The chairman of the Republican Party and prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, was declared the winner in the first round. According to preliminary information announced by the chairman of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of Armenia, Garegin Azaryan, Sarkisyan gained 863,544 votes (52.8 per cent). Armenia's former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan gained 351,306 votes (21.5 per cent), the leader of the opposition party Orinats Yerkir, Artur Bagdasaryan - 272,256 votes (11.7 per cent) and the candidate from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun, Vaan Ovannisyan - 100,876 votes (6.1 per cent). The remaining contenders gained a very small number of votes.

A total of 1,670,656 people turned out to vote in the elections (the opposition questions this figure, saying that dead souls cast almost 500,000 votes in favour of the candidate from the ruling regime). 34,849 ballot papers were deemed invalid. The protocol was signed by six members of the CEC. The representatives of the Orinats Yerkir and Heritage parties refused to sign it, while the member of the commission from Dashnaktsutyun presented a special opinion.

Meanwhile, Serzh Sarkisyan has already started receiving congratulations from the presidents of France, Russia, Georgia, Belarus and even Turkey. It is well-known that the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan duo has special relations with the French leadership. Moscow does not conceal either that Sarkisyan is its favourite in the presidential race. It is also clear why Mikhail Saakashvili hurried to congratulate Sarkisyan as he had to pay off his debt for similar congratulations on his recent re-election in questionable elections and for almost 100 per cent support in Armenian-populated regions. It is notable, however, that the USA, Britain and Germany are in no hurry to congratulate Sarkisyan. The press secretary of the US State Department, Edgar Vazquez, said that the United States is still processing "various reports on problems during the presidential elections in Armenia". He added that although the OSCE report says that "the elections, in the main, met international standards", the USA is concerned that vote-counting in 16 per cent of constituencies was described as "bad" or "very bad". The Americans expressed the hope that all complaints in this regard will be impartially examined.

In turn, the authoritative international rights organization Human Rights Watch published a report that cites dozens of concrete cases of crude violence and threats against members of parliament, observers and journalists by supporters of the ruling regime, and demanded an impartial investigation.

It is no surprise that two leading opposition candidates - former Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and former speaker Artur Bagdasaryan refused to recognize the official results of the voting. The Dashnak candidate Vaan Ovannisyan also expressed his outrage at mass violations.

Supporters of former president Ter-Petrosyan are demanding a re-run of the elections, while Artur Bagdasaryan insists on recounting of votes. Representatives of the Orinats Yerkir party said that this is already happening at a whole number of constituencies on their initiative. However, due to the inaction of the Armenian CEC during the election campaign and on election day, the procedure of appealing against the returns is taking place with violations of the law. For example, constituency electoral commissions No 3, 8, 21, 23, 24 and 38 refused to accept complaints, while constituencies which accepted them (No 5, 12, 24, 34, 35) created obstacles to their consideration. In other cases, the process of considering complaints was interrupted due to the alleged lack of a quorum.

In places where recounting was successful, ballot-rigging in favour of Serzh Sarkisyan was usually confirmed. Not just the opponents of the regime, but also the Dashnak candidate who represented the ruling coalition had their voted stolen. One of these facts, which was uncovered at a polling station where Serzh Sarkisyan was illegally given 120 votes cast in favour of Vaan Ovannisyan, prompted the latter to protest and resign. It must be noted that the headquarters of the Republican Party confirmed that on 21 February, as a result of the recounting of votes at polling station No 9/31 alone, only 396 remained of the 709 votes cast in favour of Sarkisyan. The number of such facts is continuing to multiply. During the recounting, it was also discovered that a great number of ballot papers cast in favour of Levon Ter-Petrosyan were illegally declared invalid.

The whole election campaign was accompanied by violations. Attacks were organized on proxies and headquarters of opposition candidates. People were intimidated and shamelessly bribed. During the election campaign, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was given only from two to four minutes of airtime, while a lot of time was spent on criticism of this candidate. Serzh Sarkisyan was "seen" on all channels four or five hours per day, and what's more, he was given only positive coverage. But most of the violations happened on election day during which many cases of ballot-stuffing in favour of the candidate from the ruling party, voting by citizens absent from the country, use of the "carousel" and other violations were registered. Protesting observers were expelled from polling stations and even beaten up.

The results of exit polls are also contradictory. For example, according to Alfa-GA, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was supposed to gain 54.2 per cent of votes against Serzh Sarkisyan's 24.4 per cent. According to Alliance, there should have been a second round with 37.7 per cent in favour of Ter-Petrosyan and 34.5 per cent in favour of Serzh Sarkisyan. A poll conducted by the government-controlled Public TV channel showed that Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan would win with 57 per cent of votes.

It is no surprise that large rallies began in Yerevan literally the next day after the elections, and from 21 February, they were declared open-ended. Tents have been set up on Freedom Square, food is being delivered and various orators are taking the floor all the time. The authorities have declared these actions illegal, but for the time being, they are not risking to use force against the demonstrators. However, the police have been put on high alert. Recently, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sarkisyan held meetings with the leadership of the Ministry of Defence, Police and National Security Service and described the events as an attempt to seize power. The law-enforcement agencies formally assured them of their unconditional loyalty, promised to follow the orders of the commander-in-chief and expressed their readiness to ensure constitutional order.

However, the opposition has expressed its readiness for an armed confrontation with the government. "If need be, we will put them in their place," members of Yerkrapa (Militia) - a union of volunteers who fought in Nagornyy Karabakh - have said. These are people who have military experience and weapons left over from the war. They still have some influence on official army units. Levon Ter-Petrosyan is also supported by a great number of retired army officers. As an example, we can cite the former presidential adviser and chief military inspector, Col-Gen Gurgen Dalibaltyan, the former defence minister, Lt-Gen Vagarshak Arutyunyan, and others. The statement on defection to the opposition by the deputy defence ministers, Manvel Grigoryan and Gagik Melkonyan, was officially denied by the Armenian Defence Ministry, but there is a saying - there is no smoke without fire…

According to Ter-Petrosyan, many people who work in government agencies are holding negotiations to join the opposition. For example, the opposition was openly supported by the deputy prosecutor-general, Gagik Jangiryan, who reported election fraud that surpassed everything that has happened in Armenia up till now. A group of Armenian diplomats, including Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Bayburtyan, Armenian ambassador to Italy, Spain and Portugal Ruben Shugaryan, Armenian ambassador to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Levon Khachatryan and Armenian ambassador to Ukraine and Moldova Razmik Khumaryan, made a statement, saying that only a legitimate president of Armenia can respond to foreign policy challenged that face the country. The document also called on the law-enforcement agencies to refrain from using any form of force against their own people.

The opposition movement in Armenia, led by the first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, has also been joined by seven members of parliament (two of them refused). According to Regnum news agency, these deputies represent the pro-government majority - Seyran Saroyan, Grant Grigoryan, Armen Mkhitaryan, Rustam Gasparyan and Manvel Kazaryan.

Understanding that such erosion within the ruling elite poses a danger to the regime, the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem resorted to repression. All the aforesaid diplomats were immediately fired and deprived of their diplomatic ranks. What is more, the deputy prosecutor-general Jangiryan was not just fired, but also arrested. According to information from various sources, preventive measures and even unofficial arrests are being carried out within the law-enforcement agencies in order to check the wave of defections.

It is clear that a war of nerves is under way between the pro-government forces and the opposition. Each side is waiting and trying to catch the adversary when he makes a mistake. Kocharyan and Sarkisyan are hoping that Levon Ter-Petrosyan will not be able to keep the crowd of his supporters on the square for a long time. People will get tired and go home, or will take some illegal actions, which will give the authorities a formal reason to use force and disperse the rally and the opposition.

As for Levon Ter-Petrosyan, he is clearly hoping that erosion within the authorities will continue, while the refusal of the police and army to follow criminal orders will lead to the peaceful downfall of the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan regime. Addressing the rally, he said that agents provocateurs are spreading rumours about a possible confrontation between supporters of the authorities and opposition in order to frighten people and put them off their struggle for justice. Ter-Petrosyan called on people not to succumb to provocations, reminding them that only mobilization and stamina will help get rid of the current regime which has created an abyss not just between the people and government, but also between the Armenians of Armenia and the NKR. In this regard, he welcomed the position of Nagornyy Karabakh president Bako Saakyan who decided not to interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia, unlike his predecessor Arkadiy Gukasyan who allowed special troops to arrive in Armenia from Karabakh in 2003.

Thus, it is clear that Levon Ter-Petrosyan has become a problem for the ruling regime. His return to big-time politics upset the plans of those who were trying to carry out Operation "Successor". After the parliamentary elections in May and the victory of the Republican Party (Serzh Sarkisyan was number one on its ticket, while Robert Kocharyan openly supported him), the issue of the future presidency seemed decided. Everything else was just a technical matter. They only had to make this process look democratic. However, the decision of Armenia's first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan to join the struggle turned all their plans upside down. He carried out his election campaign so strongly that the ruling Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem started getting nervous. Levon Ter-Petrosyan managed to mobilize most of the protesting electorate. The first allies, mainly from parties that are not represented in parliament, were joined by the Heritage party which is led by former Foreign Minister Raffi Ovanesyan and has a faction in the Armenian parliament. Levon Ter-Petrosyan was also supported by many prominent businessmen, cultural figures, artists and even the military.

Of course, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan has a greater advantage in terms of financial, administrative and media resources. He and Kocharyan are actively playing the "Russian" card in their favour, posing as Moscow's favourites. Putin was not just one of the first to have congratulated Sarkisyan on his election, he also invited him to Moscow despite the confrontation between the authorities and opposition. But all this may not be enough. The development of the situation will largely depend on how solid the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem is. Despite the unity they demonstrate, their relations are far from being unclouded. If the split within the government is supplemented by the split in society between the so-called "Karabakhis and Bakuvians" on the one hand and "Yerevan" Armenians on the other, things may turn unpredictable, leading to a civil war and even the total downfall of the existing regime. It is clear that everything possible will be done to block this scenario.

Meanwhile, it cannot be ruled out the opposition may be dispersed and subdued by force. But since Armenia totally depends on Western sponsors financially and is afraid to lose its artificial "democracy" advantage to Azerbaijan, such a scenario (if the opposition does not "frame itself") will be postponed as long as possible.

The third scenario is a certain compromise. There are already numerous mediators between the two sides, who are trying to find various options for overcoming the crisis. At first sight, the simplest way out is to fairly consider the complaints filed on certain constituencies and bring the results of the voting in line with the real will of citizens. However, the reduction of the number of votes attributed to Serzh Sarkisyan, at least by several thousand, may lead to a second round.

Although any concession looks like a weakness and may cause a new wave of defections from the pro-government camp, the Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem has leverage to win over at least part of the opposition. For example, Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Bagdasaryan used to work as a parliament speaker and his party was a member of the ruling coalition. So the prospect of taking a high position again can be irresistible. The authorities have "carrots" in order to please the Dashnaks and win over other participants in the election campaign.

International organizations have also joined efforts to find a compromise. On 25 February, the chairman of the Council of Europe Committee of Ministers, Slovakia's Foreign Minister Jan Kubis, and OSCE chairman-in-office Ilkka Kanerva paid a one-day visit to Armenia on 25 February.

By the time the magazine is published, the situation in Yerevan will clear up. We in Azerbaijan are mainly interested in these elections in the context of the Karabakh settlement. By joining the struggle, Levon Ter-Petrosyan raised again the issue of inevitable and necessary progress on the peace talks by means of mutual compromises. If he wins, we should not expect him to "surrender" Karabakh, of which his opponents always accuse him. But he is capable of demonstrating will to achieve peace. At the same time, the change of power, the need to establish control over the government apparatus and the position of Karabakh Armenians may neutralize his efforts. As a member of the current ruling team, if his election is confirmed, Serzh Sarkisyan may resume the "Prague process" within the framework of the Minsk Group without taking a break. This is a plus, just like the fact that his decision is likely to be supported by the Karabakh Armenians. But the 10 years of talks with this team give little hope for an acceptable agreement. The Kocharyan-Sarkisyan tandem, which seized Azerbaijani territories with fire, blood and plunder and forced its way to the government, understands only the language of force in politics. Therefore, regardless of the results of the Armenian elections, we should consistently continue to strengthen Azerbaijan's economy and military capability and increase international pressure on Yerevan in order to break the deadlock in the Karabakh settlement.