"TSUNAMI TUESDAY" SWEEPS AMERICA

The USA has finally summarized the results of the "Super Tuesday" - internal party elections that were held in 24 states at the same time. The predictions that the campaign of 2008, which is likely to be the most expensive one (it is believed that more than one billion dollars will be spent on it), will be marked by a fierce and unpredictable fight among Democratic candidates turned out to be true. For the Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the "Super Tuesday" ended in a draw: the black senator won in 13 small states, while the former first lady won in eight big and politically important states. Meanwhile, the Republicans have almost finished their struggle: the likely presidential candidate is John McCain who said yesterday that he will consolidate independent voters and beat any Democratic candidate.

What are the primaries and how do people vote in them?

Formally, candidates in the primaries usually struggle for the votes of delegates to party conventions that nominate presidential candidates. In order to become an official presidential candidate from the party, any Republican candidate needs to drum up support from at least 1,191 delegates to the convention. In order to become an official candidate from the party, any Democratic candidate needs to be supported by at least 2,025 delegates to the convention. It is also important to remember that the Democrats use a proportional system in the voting while the Republicans use mainly a first-past-the-post system. This means that in the Democratic camp, the final distribution of deputy mandates in the convention will depend not on victories in states as such, but on the majority of votes that secured these victories (of course, no-one denies the symbolic importance of these victories in the light of the forthcoming general election). In the Republican camp, a candidate who wins in this or that state usually wins the support of all its delegates. For this reason, they usually define their candidate earlier. Among other results of the "Mega Tuesday", it is worth mentioning the victories of candidates in the state of Missouri. The thing is that for 100 years in a row, the voters in this state have unmistakably elected the winner of the presidential race. This year Missouri carefully elected presidential candidates, assessing, above all, their national "electability", the press reports. As a result, Obama won the Democratic elections and McCain won the Republican elections in Missouri, which may become important psychological support for them.

Candidates - delegates - party conventions

According to American traditions, presidential candidates from the Republicans and Democrats are nominated by the conventions of these two parties. They are held two months ahead of the presidential elections: The Republicans will gather in Minneapolis on 1-4 September this year and the Democrats in Denver on 25-28 August. However, it is already clear who will be elected. The thing is that although during primaries held in all US states throughout the year, people vote for presidential candidates, in fact they elect the future delegates to party conventions. In autumn, these delegates will vote for the candidate supported by their fellow-countrymen. Of course, different states have different weights. For example, a state like California sends more candidates to the Democratic Party convention - 441, whereas the convention will bring together a total of 4,049 party members. This explains the great importance of the victory in this densely-populated state which provides more than 10 per cent of all delegates and electors. The Republican convention will be attended only by 2,380 people. California will be represented by 173 deputies at the Republican convention. The share of other states is much smaller. For example, New York will send 281 delegates to the Democratic convention and 101 delegates to the Republican convention, while the small state of Delaware will send only 23 and 18 delegates. This is why the Super Tuesday was so important. Because of its importance, it is also called "Mega Tuesday" and even "Tsunami Tuesday" - on that day, the Democrats cast lots for 1,681 seats for delegates to the future party convention and the Republicans - for 1,020 mandates.

The Democrats go neck and neck

The Democrats held their primaries in 22 states. In order to become an official presidential candidate from their party, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama need to gain a simple majority in the future party convention - at least 2,025 votes. Ahead of the voting, many experts predicted Obama's victory. His victory may have been secured by a high turnout, because Obama's slogans about the need for changes in the country have already brought to polling stations a record number of young people and apolitical voters who usually do not take part in the presidential elections. Barack Obama was quite successful indeed: he won in 13 of the 22 states. The black senator scored his most impressive result in his native Illinois where he beat Hillary Clinton by 30 per cent. Of course, he was also supported in southern states with a large number of Afro-American voters - Alabama and Georgia. Moreover, he won in Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah. However, his rival Hillary Clinton won in a smaller number of states - only in eight. But these states are larger and politically more important. Although Barack Obama was supported by many Hollywood stars and the one million Californian Armenians, the former first lady won in this state.

The results of the Democrats' primaries show that Obama is winning in the states where there are fewer Democrats than Republicans and that black voters actively support him. Clinton was supported by women, Spanish-speaking Americans and residents of the most populous states. In other words, the "Super Tuesday" strengthened the tendency that the black senator and his team tried to avoid: out of a national candidate who stands above races and classes, in public consciousness he is turning into a traditional representative of black America. According to American commentator Pat Buchanan, a former presidential candidate, Obama has become "ghettoized", because against his own will, he is more associated with only one group of voters - Afro-Americans. In the long-term, this may create problems for the black senator because the more Afro-Americans support him, the less attractive he will be for the white voters and Latin Americans. Since the latter are much greater in number, Hillary Clinton may win.

According to the results of the "Super Tuesday", the major struggle between the Democratic candidates still lies ahead. According to The New York Times, which sympathizes with Clinton, the votes split into two on 5 February - the former first lady garnered 7,427,000 votes (50.2 per cent) and Obama - 7,370,000 (49.8 per cent). On the whole, after the Super Tuesday and Obama's consequent success in the primaries in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington (state), the Virginia Islands and Maine, he almost caught up with Clinton by the number of electors - he has 1,121 votes and a victory in 19 states, while Clinton has 1,148 votes and a victory in 12 states. For this reason, due to the split in the Democratic camp, the fight for the Democratic nomination may continue till the party convention scheduled for 25-28 August in Denver, which will become one of the most interesting conventions in the history of the party. Since rivalry between the two candidates remains acute and unpredictable, the leadership of the Democratic Party has already expressed its anxiety about its unity. Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean even said that he thinks it inexpedient for Clinton and Obama to continue their fierce struggle till the party convention at the end of August. "I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," he told NY-1 TV in an interview. "But if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement, because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention - that would not be good news for either party."

John McCain makes it into the final

The rules of electing candidates to the Republican Party convention are slightly different from those of the Democrats. If in the Democratic Party, the votes in the primaries are distributed equally between the candidates who gain more than 15 per cent, the Republicans have the rule "the winner takes it all" - all the votes of the delegates from a state go to the candidate who takes first place. This rule was quite beneficial for Arizona senator John McCain. Before the "Super Tuesday", he was in the lead among the Republicans, but won in nine states at once on 5 February (the Republicans held their primaries in 21 states). His victory in his native Arizona, as well as in California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma secured his leadership. After the primaries, Senator McCain gained a total of 613 votes from the delegates to the future party convention, whereas his main opponent Mitt Romney garnered only 269. As a result, Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, acknowledged his defeat and dropped out of the race two days after the "Super Tuesday". Although McCain officially still has two rivals - Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, this decision considerably facilitates McCain's election campaign, and very few people doubt now that McCain will represent the Republican Party in the 2008 elections. McCain is now in the lead among the Republicans and is already supported by 714 candidates from the forthcoming convention. In order to become the party's official candidate, the Republican candidate needs, as we said above, to be supported by 1,191 delegates to the convention. During the primaries, McCain won in 13 states and gained support from 4.7 million Republican voters.

Primaries and Azerbaijan

The results of the "Super Tuesday" are also very important to Azerbaijan. The thing is that Clinton and Obama, who are still running neck and neck, have been taking an openly pro-Armenian position, which is quite typical of the Democrats. Specifically, Obama's position on American-Armenian relations was clearly expressed in his statement on 19 January 2008 where he said that he will continue supporting Armenia which has always been a reliable partner of the United States in the war on terror and extremism. "I will promote Armenian security by seeking an end to the Turkish and Azerbaijani blockades, and by working for a lasting and durable settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict that is agreeable to all parties, and based upon America's founding commitment to the principles of democracy and self-determination," Obama said. Obama also stressed in his statement that he shares with American Armenians their fundamental devotion to the cause of immortalizing the memory of genocide victims. Indeed, Obama has an impressive list of achievements in this sphere - as an American senator, he supported the appeal from the Armenian community of the US to force Turkey to recognize the Armenian genocide. Two years ago, he criticized the US state secretary for dismissing US ambassador John Evans after he used the term "genocide" by mistake - contrary to the State Department instruction - to describe the thousands of Armenian deaths in Ottoman Turkey. According to the senator from Illinois, "the Armenian genocide is not an allegation, a personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather a widely documented fact supported by an overwhelming body of historical evidence." Obama supports the passage of Resolution 106 on the recognition of the so-called "Armenian genocide" and promises to recognize the "Armenian genocide" if he is elected president. "America deserves a leader who speaks truthfully about the Armenian Genocide and responds forcefully to all genocides. I intend to be that President," the Democratic presidential candidate says.

Senator Hillary Clinton, the rival of the black senator from Illinois, has also been taking a clear position on this issue. Her position on American-Armenian relations stands out for such important aspects as her support for the so-called "Armenian genocide" - she has been a co-sponsor of this resolution since 2002. As president, she intends to expand relations between the USA and Armenia in order to secure common interests in such spheres as trade, economic relations, war on terror, strengthening of democratic institutions, continuation of military partnership and deepening of cooperation with NATO. She is also ready to cooperate with Armenia on such important regional issues as a fair and democratic solution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. If elected president, Clinton promises to expand American programmes of assistance to Armenia and "the people of Nagornyy Karabakh". Clinton intends to continue working with the Armenian community of the US on other domestic and foreign policy issues.

As a result, at a news conference in Glendale, California, on 30 January, the Armenian National Committee of American (ANCA) officially declared Barack Obama its presidential candidate in 2008. ANCA chairman Ken Hachikian said that the committee "is proud today to endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States". "Based on his strong record in office, his bold statements as a candidate, and our judgment as to the policies he will pursue as President, we believe that, among a strong field of Democratic candidates, Senator Obama will best reflect the views and values of Armenian American voters," Hachikian added. The leader of the movement Armenians for Obama, Nora Hovsepian, went even further, attributing to the black senator what he never said. At this news conference, she said that "Barack Obama, on the key issues of importance to our community, has adopted very favorable positions. Whether it is recognition of the Armenian genocide, aid to Armenia, or self-determination and independence for Karabakh, on all of these issues, Barack Obama is with us." ANCA is especially pleased with the fact that during his visit to Azerbaijan in August 2005, Senator Obama, asked by journalists why he had called on President Bush to recognize the Armenian genocide, openly said that he did so because he regards the Armenian genocide as a historical fact.

All this, coupled with the high chances of the Democratic hopefuls, is a serious signal that Azerbaijan should be mulling over its steps and measures to neutralize these openly pro-Armenian approaches in the programmes of the Democratic presidential candidates.