IN COUNTER-BALANCE TO THREATS

Mankind is currently facing the threat of global ecological crisis. This is first of all related to the problem of global warming due to the heavy contamination of the atmosphere by hydrocarbon reserves which inflict irreparable damage upon nature.

The constant increase in the volume of oil and gas extraction and consumption prompts people to resort to extreme measures in order to prevent contamination of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. To this end, the Kyoto Protocol establishes quotas for the extraction and consumption of raw materials in major oil extracting countries. The situation is aggravated by the fact that despite the restrictions, oil and gas will remain the main sources of energy until 2030, and the annual growth in oil and gas consumption will be at least 1.6 per cent a year.

The Caspian oil region, from which about one million barrels of oil are extracted every day, also plays an important role in this problem. The volume of oil extraction here is expected to increase to five million barrels by 2012.

There is a correlation between the growing volume of oil and gas extraction and supplies to the world market and the growth in the risk of losses from main oil and gas pipelines as a result of terrorist attacks, ecological disasters and complications in the political and economic situations in countries which import and export oil.

The problem of energy security is one of the most important and complicated problems both for countries which are self-sufficient in natural hydrocarbon reserves and for countries which consume energy.

Being one of the main components of any concept of national security, energy security is also a guarantee of political independence and stable economic growth.

The constant increase in the volume of hydrocarbon extraction and consumption, both on the domestic and world markets increases the risk of losing oil and gas, as we said above, as a result of terrorist attacks, ecological disasters and complications in the political and economic situations in transit zones.

These factors speed up the crisis in the oil and gas industry, which may have serious consequences for the whole economy. It is necessary to concentrate efforts on research into the areas of registering, analyzing, assessing and predicting risks in the oil and gas extracting industry in order to delay the arrival of the crisis and soften its consequences.

Unfortunately, insufficient attention is paid to the single, mutually linked and scientifically substantiated methodology of assessing risks and possible crises in the oil and gas industry, which would cover all stages of the life cycles of oil and gas systems.

For this reason, it is very important to research, assess, predict and manage risks throughout the whole technological system of the oil and gas complex, from the pre-investment stage up to the completion of projects being implemented.

It has been established that the steady development of the whole social system, in which energy plays a very important role, predetermines the need to support a steady development of energy itself.

The reliability and security of the energy base and its ability to carry out its historical mission to secure economic progress in the 21st century are extremely important. In this regard, new strategic approaches and specific new projects are required, and it is necessary to coordinate actions to achieve the principal goal.

The democratization of society and humanization of energy policy are important conditions for ensuring energy security in the modern world. In this regard, it is especially important to increase energy efficiency, reduce the amount of energy spent on production, protect the environment, economize on resources and ensure the safe operation of energy systems by means of continual risk assessment and management.

The demographic factor

Energy consumption in various countries is now on a large scale and, despite the measures being taken, it is quite difficult to reduce energy consumption. There is a clear tendency towards growing energy consumption in the Asian region, where about 80 per cent of the world population lives. Thus, demography is one of the main factors in growing energy consumption and may become the dominant feature of undesirable risk.

The ecological factor

The accumulation and use of organic fuel amounts to about 300 billion tons per year. This figure may double in the next 30-50 years. It has been established that technological measures can no longer halt the greenhouse effect which affects the global climate and disrupts ecological balance. For this reason, the ecological factor is emerging as an obstacle to the use of traditional energy sources by existing methods and forms of management. This is one of the main factors affecting the formation of the "loop" crisis.

The geopolitical factor

After the collapse of the Soviet Union and its unified energy system, the political struggle for the energy market deteriorated even further and became the initial catalyst for hot spots and crises in various parts of the planet. By level of energy consumption, the world community is divided into several groups. Per capita electricity consumption in member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is 10 times higher on average than in other countries. The population of the states which are not members of this organization comprises almost 80 per cent of the world's total. Currently, about two billion people have no access to power networks. This means that energy consumption will increase in the future and cause energy crises, according to statistical information on Asian countries, including China and India - countries which have the lowest indicators of energy consumption. In recent years, energy consumption has increased by several times in these countries.

The issue of increasing energy prices often causes high-level disputes in various countries, setting new tasks for OPEC in the management of energy prices. Since existing oil and gas deposits are running out, little-known and inaccessible regions - the North Sea, the Arctic, Sakhalin and the extreme southern regions of the planet - are being studied. However, the expense of energy exploration and extraction there is extremely high.

According to some predictions, oil prices may exceed 100 dollars. Statesmen and political experts often explain this by the appearance of new "hot spots" in regions dominated by countries rich in oil and gas reserves. As in the previous century, this century is also a time of fierce struggle for dominance on the world oil market, the principal factor in the increase in risk, thus deepening the crisis in the world oil industry.

The oil boom in the late 20th and early 21st centuries ushered in a new way of thinking in state policy, which can be seen clearly in the current situation in the South Caucasus.

After the implementation of major oil and gas projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, Azerbaijan became a partner of strategic importance to transit countries through which the pipelines pass and which receive oil and gas, helping to strengthen and improve mutual relations. On the one hand, this serves to reduce risks and soften crises and, on the other, increases tensions in relations with rival countries on the world market.

Currently, the threat to the security of human society and entire civilizations has become so great that damage caused by major terrorist attacks, continuing ethnic conflicts and local wars amounts to tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. The terrorist attack of 11 September 2001 showed that such a threat is inevitable, despite the presence of a national security and intelligence infrastructure and the guarding of strategic facilities.

Thus, ensuring energy security has a strategic aspect upon which the influence of various risks and threats plays an important role. The development of a security strategy should be based on a thorough study of previous experience in preventing threats, risks and possible crises in living and nonliving systems, as well as on the creation of modern methods of analyzing, assessing and predicting risks.

Therefore, taking account of previous experience in developing modern methods of fighting and preventing risks and of future possible crises, it is necessary to develop a single strategy of security.