THE BREAKTHROUGH IS COMING SOON

Azerbaijan's Agdam District has been divided in two for 15 years. Most of the district is occupied by Armenian armed forces, while some villages remain under Azerbaijan's control. This is the front line, on one side of which there is chaos and plunder and on the other side, progress and prosperity. This is the picture you see every time there is information comparing situations on opposite sides of the trenches. In January this year, the world had another opportunity to see Agdam and the whole of Karabakh through the eyes of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, who are brokering the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement, and of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

"In most of the district, all the buildings and infrastructure have been destroyed, and Armenian plunderers have stolen and taken away all property. We and the international community are aware of this. Two years ago, the OSCE fact-finding mission visited the region and reflected the whole sad truth in its report. The town has been almost completely ruined by Armenian vandals. Not a single building remains intact here, and all the property of people at the heart of our material and spiritual legacy has been taken away," President Ilham Aliyev said during his visit to Agdam.

The words of the Azerbaijani president could have been seen as biased or exaggerated if it had not been for international confirmation. Immediately after Ilham Aliyev, the deplorable situation in Azerbaijan's occupied territories was confirmed by the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, who monitored the contact line between the troops from the occupied part of Agdam District together with his counterparts from Russia and France.

"As your president said, the town has been turned into ruins. But the biggest impression was not made by what I saw, but by what I did not see. I did not see people, normal houses and any life at all," Bryza said in an interview with ANS TV, adding: "When I saw Agdam for myself, it made my heart ache. Although I am not Azerbaijani, it was very painful for me. I understand why it hurts all Azerbaijanis so much. You understand there how high the level of confrontation is. In Agdam you understand how high tensions are, and we must do everything possible to ensure that war never breaks out again and this problem is finally solved. It is unfair that people cannot live in their own land and houses. It is very unfair…"

There are no grounds to doubt the sincerity of Bryza's words, especially as he is Polish by origin, and the diplomat painfully compares what he saw in Agdam with post-war Warsaw. However, what hurts us is not just the fact that people cannot live peacefully in their own land. It is even more hurtful that this injustice is taking place before the eyes of a world community which remains loyal to its notorious policy of double standards. This causes suffering to peaceful people - not just to Azerbaijanis, but also to Armenians.

What is more, the Armenians have suffered even more than the Azerbaijanis. Azerbaijan is in a position to provide its refugees and displaced persons with normal housing, jobs and food today. The refugee camps have already been replaced by new settlements with their own schools, medical institutions and all other necessary amenities. Twelve new settlements have been built in areas of Agdam District liberated from occupation. According to the head of state, 86,000 people are living in the liberated part of Agdam District, which is 50 per cent of the district population. During his visit to the region, the president attended the opening of a number of facilities in Agdam, including an Olympic sports complex. He also pointed out that district residents will soon be provided with natural gas, which is already supplied to the neighbouring Agcabadi District. However, there is quite a different situation in Armenia, which can only make both ends meet owing to foreign aid. For this reason, the Armenians who left their homes as a result of a war thrust upon them by their own government are wandering around the world in search of a normal life.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is sure that the justice Bryza spoke about will triumph sooner or later and that people will move from makeshift settlements into their own homes. The country's president has repeatedly said this, and he has real grounds to do so. "Azerbaijan's successful economic and foreign policy, its authority and growing role in the region, our economic potential and the fact that we are strong in terms of energy, and our rapid building of the army are also having a positive effect on the negotiating process," said the head of state.

If there had been no progress, Ilham Aliyev would not have divulged some aspects of the talks. For the first time, at a cabinet meeting in January, he named all the districts from which Armenia must withdraw first of all. Therefore, this means that the negotiations have now focused not on the four districts that the Armenian side had offered to return, but on seven districts and, in the future, on the whole of Nagornyy Karabakh from which Azerbaijan is demanding Armenia's withdrawal. "Whereas we previously discussed the issue of returning four districts to Azerbaijan, which, to be more precise, was proposed by the Armenian side, this is now behind us. Now we are talking about the return of seven districts to Azerbaijan - all the occupied territories. The international mediators and the OSCE Minsk Group are also demanding this from Armenia, and the Armenian leadership is forced to accept this. This is considerable progress and great success," the head of state said in Agdam.

Matthew Bryza also noted some progress in the peaceful settlement process, although he was quite careful in his statement. "On the whole, the presidents agree that the refugees should return to their permanent places of residence, Armenia and Nagornyy Karabakh should maintain certain relations and the troops should be withdrawn," the Minsk Group co-chair said. He said that in principle, there is a common concept on all issues. It is too early to talk about an agreement before all issues have been solved separately.

At the same time, the mediators are upbeat about the parties' commitment to continuing the negotiations and their agreement to work on the basic principles of settlement proposed in Madrid. In an interview with the APA news agency on the results of his visit to the region, Bryza pointed out that the issue is about an improved document that is formulated in more comprehensible language and which covers all the basic principles. However, it is too early to talk about agreement on a specific article until the parties involved in the negotiations agree on all articles of the basic principles, he said. This means if there is no agreement on all issues, there is no agreement at all.

The mediators hope to achieve certain results before the presidential elections in Armenia, although diplomats are usually quite pragmatic and think that they will have to do a lot of work with the new Armenian president. However, they were somewhat concerned that the new president of Armenia may want to start everything from scratch. But during their visit to Yerevan, they found that the main presidential candidates in Armenia are ready to continue working on the basis of the basic principles that have already been drawn up.

As for the principles, to all appearances, the "Madrid plan" is based on principles drawn up within the framework of the Prague process. The US diplomat pointed out that they have been working on these principles for the last three years. As we know, the negotiations were held only within the framework of the Prague process during this period, and Azerbaijan has repeatedly expressed its commitment to it.

Of course, not everything the mediators have proposed suits Azerbaijan. But on the whole, the course of the negotiations has a positive trend, said President Ilham Aliyev.

In a word, the confidence of the Azerbaijani president in the restoration of the country's territorial integrity is backed up by specific work carried out on the economic, military and diplomatic fronts. Along with improvements in the living conditions of refugees and displaced persons, we already have all grounds to prepare to repatriate them and restore the remaining part of Agdam and other districts damaged by the devastating war.