PAKISTAN SPINNING OUT OF CONTROL

Pakistan remains ex-tremely tense. Pakistani pro-Taliban fighters in South Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan, have killed eight local tribal leaders who were negotiating cease-fire terms with the army, according to the latest media reports. Members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are thought to have stormed the residence of Mullah Nazir, one of the most influential tribal leaders in Wana, the main town in South Waziristan. The attackers shot Mullah Nazir's three closest supporters, and killed five people in the town of Shakai and wounded another five. Mullah Nazir had earlier been drawn into bloody clashes with the fighters (probably members of the IMU) and supported the government policy of driving all the "outsiders", in other words the Islamist fighters, out of the tribal areas. In spring 2007 government troops with the support of local elders conducted a major operation to clear the IMU out of Waziristan, killing a large number of fighters, according to reports in the Pakistani media.

Meanwhile, reports of explosions and suicide attacks come from Pakistan with frightening regularity. Analysts and the police continue to focus attention on the 27 December terrorist attack in Rawalpindi, which killed the Iron Lady of the East, former Pakistani Prime Minister and leader of the People's Party, Benazir Bhutto.

The investigation into her death is in full swing, but it is still difficult to say anything definite. It is not even clear what Benazir Bhutto died from - bullet wounds or banging her head hard against the lever to her vehicle's sunroof. It is only known that the suicide attacker first fired several shots in Bhutto's direction then activated an explosive. In the evening of 28 December Pakistani Interior Ministry spokesmen issued statements denying that Bhutto died from a bullet wound. The ministry's press secretary, Javed Cheema, said that the suicide terrorist shot three times, but missed, after which he blew himself up. Doctors at the hospital where Bhutto was taken with a serious head wound also did not find traces of bullet wounds on her body. Cheema said that the leader of the Pakistani People's Party died during the explosion when she hit her head on the lever of the sunroof in her armoured vehicle - she had been looking out through the sunroof to greet her supporters. According to the official version, the cause of the death of one of the leaders of the Pakistani opposition was nevertheless an explosion. 

However, Benazir Bhutto's husband does not agree with the conclusions of the Pakistani government and is accusing the authorities of incompetence. "We confirm that there was an explosion, but first she was shot and the explosion came later. I have my eyewitnesses, but the Pakistani authorities did not interrogate them," Asif Ali Zardari said in an interview with Indian television. "Benazir Bhutto was killed by a gunshot, the bullet hit her in the head," Sherry Rehman, a senior figure in the Pakistan People's Party who knew Bhutto well, told journalists. Rehman said that she was one of the people who washed the body before burial and saw the bullet wound with her own eyes. "We could not even wash her properly because the wound was still seeping. She lost a huge amount of blood," Rehman explained.

"I believe that the Pakistani government is a group of incompetent people, who cannot distinguish between the back and the front. They should not be acting this way in history," commented Zardari, one time environment minister in Bhutto's government. He said that despite many requests, the authorities had not ensured the necessary level of security at Bhutto's rallies. "Instead of accepting responsibility and admitting their guilt, they are blaming others and playing dirty games," Zardari said.

At the same time, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said that Benazir Bhutto herself bore some responsibility for her death. "She alone is to blame for standing up out of the car. No-one else," the president said. The authorities did everything possible to protect the opposition politician, according to Musharraf. "She was given more guards than anyone else," the president said. 

The United Nations has turned down a request from Bhutto's husband and son to take over the investigation, according to the latest reports. It was made clear that the murders of Bhutto and Lebanon's former premier, Rafiq Hariri, should not be put on the same footing. However, something else is also clear. Pakistan's official authorities had less of an interest in Benazir Bhutto's murder than anyone, especially after Pervez Musharraf won the presidential elections and could already make concessions to the opposition from a position of strength. He agreed to give up his position as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and allowed Bhutto to return to Pakistan. Many analysts seriously doubted whether, for all her popularity, the former prime minister would be able to return to the political fray after so many years in exile. 

There is no doubt that Benazir Bhutto had reason to worry about her own security. She returned to her home country on 18 October in order to take part in the parliamentary elections scheduled for early January. Her first day back, when her cortege was travelling down a central Karachi street, two explosions occurred, killing more than 140 people.

There is also no doubt that Benazir Bhutto's murder set off a fresh wave of unrest and instability in the country. She was not simply a popular politician and former prime minister, Bhutto was also the leader of a numerous and influential clan. Bhutto's party and clan are now led by her son and husband who do not have Oxford graduate Benazir's charisma. The elections in Pakistan have been postponed until 18 February and there is no guarantee that they will take place then. 

Most analysts think that terrorists pronounced the death sentence on Bhutto after she promised the USA in confidential talks, if media reports are to be believed, that she would allow military operations against Al Qaeda in the parts of the country bordering Afghanistan, above all in the free tribal areas. 

The murder of the popular opposition politician was, all else aside, an ideal way to heat up the situation in the country to the limit and excite inter-communal and inter-clan violence to extremes. This is a serious problem for Pakistan: clashes between Shia and Sunni claim dozens of lives here every year. It cannot be ruled out that the assassination of the prime minister was part of a comprehensive plan of action to ease the seizure of power by radical Islamists against a background of widespread instability in the country. This is what happened in neighbouring Afghanistan at one time and in Chechnya, and it looks as though they are trying to follow the same scenario in Iraq. Moreover, in Pakistan, just as in Iraq, the "black international" of political terror, made up mainly of militants recruited to take part in jihad in different parts of the world, is beginning to claim a leading role in political life. After bin Laden's sensational address in which he declared war on "treacherous regimes" in Muslim countries, this theory should not be dismissed out of hand. All the more so, as the Islamists have already shown their strength in Pakistan, during the Red Mosque affair. They realized then that it was completely unrealistic to take power through elections. Calls for terror and "three-way" terrorist moves are, therefore, to be expected.