TWENTY YEARS WITHOUT PEACE

Twenty years have passed since the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in 1988. This was not the first time that Armenia had made territorial claims on its neighbours. According to Krylov's well-known fairy tale, "we hear lots of examples of this in history". But this time things went too far and a devastating war broke out, lasting many years, claming many lives and leaving more than one million people without a roof over their heads. Today Azerbaijan and Armenia live in a state of "neither peace, nor war". You will agree that 20 years is not a short period of time, especially for those who were forced to leave their hearths and who expect a new war at any moment. For this reason the international community, which has taken it upon itself to settle relations between the two neighbours, should take the situation more seriously.

It is exactly this concern that could be felt in Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's address to an expanded cabinet meeting in early 2008. "We hear from all sides that we are right, our land has been occupied and justice is on our side. However, I can say that this international oral or documented support yields no tangible results. There are no real results," Ilham Aliyev said.

The Azerbaijani president stressed that the leadership and people of Azerbaijan are not going to put up with this situation, especially as the economic and military might of Azerbaijan allows the country to liberate its land independently.

"Economic advantage is on our side, and there is no need to comment further on it. It is enough to compare the volume of the Azerbaijani and Armenian economies. According to the results of 2007, the volume of our economy totalled about 30 billion dollars and Armenia's only 6 or 7 billion. This great difference will increase even more in the future," Aliyev said.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijan still remains loyal to a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Although many predicted a decline in activity around a Karabakh settlement in 2008 because of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia, it may be that many things will become clearer this year. "In 2008, we will see clearly where we are and whether a peaceful settlement of the issue is possible and, of course, after that we will take our own decisions," Ilham Aliyev said, while addressing members of the cabinet.

The international mediators also expect great results from this year. Incidentally, let's talk about the mediators. Immediately after the New Year holidays, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group paid another visit to the region. US co-chair Matthew Bryza said that "there will be no break in the negotiations before the elections". The mediators also hope that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will reach certain verbal agreements this year.

The co-chairs pointed out that they arrived here to find out the sides' attitudes towards the proposals they made in Madrid. According to French co-chair Bernard Fassier, these proposals are of positive importance to both sides, although he thinks that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan will be able to get everything they want. However, whatever expectations the mediators have, the sides to the conflict still have the last say. In this sense, it would be pertinent to point out that Azerbaijan's position has not changed, which was stated again by the head of state.

"Azerbaijan has never discussed, and never will discuss, its territorial integrity. Nagornyy Karabakh's independence, or its future independence in any form, even in 10-15 years, or in 100 years, is not a subject for negotiation and never has been," the president openly declared.

"The essence of the negotiations is withdrawal from all the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, including the return of Azerbaijani citizens to Nagornyy Karabakh. This is the essence of the negotiations - withdrawal from Agdam, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Cabrayil, Qubadli, Kalbacar and Lacin districts. I have deliberately listed the names of the districts so that Armenia does not make false statements tomorrow to achieve its political aims," Ilham Aliyev said, giving the Armenian leadership no chance to manipulate the negotiating process.

As we can see, negotiations on a settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict have entered an important stage and will continue for some time. But "we must be ready for everything", Ilham Aliyev said. It is clear what the president meant by this statement. As it were, if you want peace, prepare for war.