THE "GREATER KHORASAN" OPERATION

Greater Khorasan is a historical region of Greater Iran, which once included a considerable territory - in particular Afgha-nistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbe-kistan and Tajikistan. But, in the view of the leaders of the terrorist organisation "Islamic State" (IS), the future "Khorasan", which is to be under their leadership, should also include Pakistan, Afghanistan, the eastern and northern regions of Iran, where ethnic Azeris live, the republics of Central Asia, part of India and Western China. The leaders of the terrorist organisation have announced the creation of an administration for this province consisting of a managing body of 12 people and have instituted the post of emir...     

This does of course sound absurd at the present time. But just a few years ago how many people would have believed  that a quasi-state would appear on extensive territories in Syria and Iraq, where perverted forms of execution would be carried out and primitive laws would be established? Moreover, the terrorists have reported that they have an army of tens of thousands of fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan frontier. 

The existing delusion that IS and ISIS ("Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant") are one and the same organisation is not completely true. Whereas ISIS was a local terrorist grouping, whose plans included ruling Iraq and the Levant (the historical region embracing modern-day Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Jordan), the change in the name to "Islamic State" already indicates that plans are afoot to set up a caliphate on extensive territories which should include the province of Khorasan.

Where are they coming from?

IS is gathering recruits in the countries of Central Asia, the number of whom has reached 4,000 and is growing daily. The terrorists, who have come from Northern China and the former Soviet countries will return to their homeland sooner or later, but not bringing peace.

Back at the end of last summer, on the orders of IS head, al-Baghdadi, an ethnic Tajik became the emir of the largest Syrian province, Raqqa, which is in the hands of the terrorists. This indicates the priority of the Central Asian trend in terrorist grouping's staffing policy.

From this point of view, the appearance in the IS ranks of the charismatic and experienced officer Gulmurod Khalimov, commander of the Tadjik Interior Ministry special purpose militia detachment, is quite logical. In his video appeal, he reported that his "brothers will return with arms", will conquer all those who are, in their view, suppressing Islam. It is interesting that he refers to his fellow countrymen who are earning money for their families working as migrants in Russia as "slaves" and appealed to them to join the "jihad". 

In the view of experts, Khalimov's video appeal may encourage even more people from Central Asia to join IS. 

There are various reasons why people want to join the grouping. Thus, the flow of recruits from Europe is based on the fact that immigrants from the Middle East and Asia get a "culture shock" in the European Union and learn all the splendid things about being marginalised. But what makes people from Central Asia join the terrorists?

One of the main factors is of course the "mujahid-jihad-paradise-guria" brain washing technique. Modern neurolinguistic methods (NLP) are increasingly being used in the brain-washing process. At the same time, the economic reasons for the growth in the warring monsters need to be taken into account. Besides all else, IS is a rather successful business venture. Trading in narcotics, petroleum, plundering historical and art treasures and kidnapping people (for ransom and supplying organs for transplants) make up the income in their budget.   But since IS's main expenditure is payment for the services of its fighters, it may be supposed that these payments are quite large. Naturally, most of IS "assets" remain in the pockets of the "emirs", but that's already a topic for another discussion.        

Thus, "jihad" may be assessed as a means of existence and as earnings. Attention should also be paid to the drop in the value of the rouble and the crisis in the Russian economy. The clamping down in the rules relating to migrants to the Russian Federation is acting as a kind of off-putting factor for the migrant workers [gastarbeiter] from Central Asia, the numbers of which, have, according to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, reached four million. It may be assumed that some of these migrants might join the IS ranks in the quest for easy profit. But IS supporters in Central Asia are not necessarily representatives of the needy strata of the population. In those republics, it is not difficult to find unemployed, well-educated people, but the case of Khalimov points to more profound problems in society.

"Fertile soil"

Possibly, the problem is that in the years of independence the authorities in the countries of Central Asia have not been able to offer their peoples a satisfactory ideological concept for their own self-identity.

Whereas in the early years of independence an awareness of Islam was popular, the authorities feared the rise of religious extremism and began to persecute believers. As a result, a paradoxical situation came about: on the one hand, Islamic belief was recognised by everyone, while, on the other hand, young people could not go to the mosques. Not only the Islamic opposition was persecuted, which against the backdrop of IS could be counted as the most liberal, but there is hardly any secular opposition.

If this practice continues, a favourable opposition vacuum will appear that could easily be filled by IS supporters. All those strata of society which are dissatisfied with the domestic situation could turn to the radicals as the only opposition force.  As far as the military and the police are concerned,   as the "last barricade" on the Islamists' path in the region, they might also swap sides as in the case of Khalimov.

Owing to its specific nature, the domestic political situation in the Central Asian countries is extremely alarming and could be likened to a powder keg.

Firstly, in countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the issue of political succession is an extremely acute one. The age of the presidents and the increasingly frequent news flashes about their state of health are making this an even more serious problem.

The second element may be regarded as a continuation of the first, and here we are talking about the confrontations among the clans on the basis of regional, ethnic and religious enmity, the Kulob, Khujand and other clans in Tajikistan, the confrontation between the Tashkenters and Samarkanders in Uzbekistan, the division of Kazakhstan and especially Kyrgyzstan into northern and southern parts.

The third factor affecting issues of security in the zone is narcotics trafficking, which is at a height after the Western intervention in Afghanistan. Throughout all this time, the Islamic underground organisations did not go anywhere. On the contrary, the fighters of the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan are now fighting in the ranks of the Taliban and Hizb ut-Tahrir, gaining experience in various radically-inclined Islamist organisations in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. It is not hard to guess what position they will take when IS invades Central Asia. 

Ethnic conflicts in these countries have not been resolved either. Over the last 25 years there have been two inter-ethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, as a result of which thousands of people perished and hundreds of thousands became refugees. From time to time, clashes occur between Uzbeks and Tajiks, between Kazakhs and the ethnic minorities in Kazakhstan. 

Their own kind of Bermuda triangle exists in Central Asia, and this is precisely the Fergana valley, which is included in the territory of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The cities of Khujand and Isfara, key cities in this valley, are located on the territory of Tajikistan; Namangan, Andijan and Kokand, which occupy 90 per cent of the valley's area, are part of Uzbekistan, while Osh and Jalalabad in the eastern part belong to Kyrgyzstan.

The varying ethnicities of the residents of the Fergana valley, the many-year-long conflicts on ethnic grounds, the high population density (11m people live on an area of 22,000 sq km), the shortage of land and water resources, the spread of religious extremism, the mistaken tactics of the local authorities, which were manifested in particular in the mass shooting of protesters in Andijan in 2005, the on-going activity of intelligence services of regional and non-regional states, the border spats, the massive smuggling of narcotics and other goods are, when taken together, creating the conditions to destabilise the situation in the region.

Besides Afghanistan's lengthy northern frontier with the Central Asian states, it is precisely the Fergana valley that may be the flashpoint for a deterioration of the situation and serve as fertile ground for IS and its further expansion in the region.

"Guard dogs"

The last issue is what forces stand to gain by organising a "conflagration" in this region. From time to time news leaks in the press and also facts testifying to the involvement of western special services and transnational corporations in the emergence and strengthening of the monster known as IS. The fact is that the grouping's leader, al-Baghdadi, was, according do some information, once an inmate in the American Abu-Ghraib prison in Iraq, and, after contact with General David Petraeus, the commander of the US forces and NATO in  Afghanistan, was miraculously released, and there is a photograph of him with the odious senator John McCain.

It can also be said that after the western coalition's long bombing of IS positions, the jihadists are only getting stronger like the Phoenix bird. How the opponents of the West and the enemies of IS can hit it off and share the same views is a cause of amazement. In all the video appeals, the terrorist commanders declare jihad precisely against those countries which, in the view of the "international community" consisting solely of the "civilised" countries of the West, are the enemies of "democracy". That is, the West and IS are confronting one and the same forces, namely Iran, Syria, China and Russia.

It is sufficient to look at the map to see that, if you start a fire in Central Asia, the flame from that fire may easily spread to Russia, China, Iran and also Pakistan, which has been behaving in a "wilful manner" of late and having a rapprochement with China. Yes, no-one has changed the actual principle of all times and peoples that "my enemy's enemy is my friend".

Back in 1999, in his book "Dollars for Terror. The United States and Islam", the editor-in-chief of Radio France Internationale", Richard Labeviere, called the jihadists the "guard dogs of American-style globalisation".  This researcher and journalist explained that the jihadists and the American transnational corporations and financial structures have one and the same enemy - nation states.  Although it is disputable to what extent the jihadists are controlled by their former masters at this moment in time.