TEST OF STABILITY

No-one doubted that Yuliya Timoshenko would become Ukraine's new prime minister. However, to the surprise of everyone, she failed to get what she wanted at her first attempt. News agencies immediately spread the news with puzzled headlines saying that Timoshenko fell short of just one vote in the Ukrainian parliament. As a result, representatives of the coalition YTB-Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defence said that the electronic voting system was faulty, and next time (several days later), the deputies voted simply by raising their hands. This was the right choice: On 18 December, YTB leader Yuliya Timoshenko was officially elected Ukrainian prime minister. In the Ukrainian parliament, 226 of the 227 deputies who took part in the vote supported Timoshenko (there are 450 seats in the Ukrainian parliament). The same day, the composition of the new cabinet of ministers was approved.

It must be noted that the events preceding Timoshenko's election as prime minister lasted almost one year. The decree on the dissolution of the Ukrainian parliament and new elections was signed by Viktor Yushchenko in early April. He explained his decision by the fact that the deputies paid for "forming a majority in an extra-constitutional way, for taking illegitimate decisions and for reconsidering the results of the elections". However, most of the members of parliament, led by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, refused to follow Yushchenko's decree and appealed to the Constitutional Court, accusing the president of violating several articles of the country's constitution and setting a dangerous precedent that might lead to a coup. Since then, the judges have been mulling over the legitimacy of the president's decree. Dismissals, accusations of corruption, scandals, reports of bribery and the legal mayhem were quite "helpful" in this process. However, later Yanukovich's supporters agreed to hold snap parliamentary elections in Autumn 2007. The two main rivals - Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions and the Yuliya Timoshenko Bloc - gained almost the same number of votes. The pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defence came third and formed a ruling "orange coalition" together with the YTB.

The new government of Ukraine has already let it be known that it will stick to the election programme of the YTB. In turn, Timoshenko said that "she will not allow anyone to destroy the unity of President Viktor Yushchenko, the new cabinet of ministers and the parliamentary coalition". "I urge all political forces to put an end to squabbles and stop the blocking and brawls in parliament, the war of compromising dossiers and mutual insults. We do not need great scandals, we need a great Ukraine," the new prime minister said. She also let it be known that she is going to "do everything possible to ensure that the dirty money of the shadow economy never becomes a key factor in Ukrainian politics again, that members of parliament are not bought like cattle in a marketplace and that no politician wants to make easily tens of millions of dollars".

The prime minister stressed that her government started an anti-corruption campaign from the first day of its work, including with regard to what she thinks are dubious actions of the previous cabinet. "We should clearly know what they have done. We will check how every cent was spent, every tender and every licence. They will have to answer for all shady and illegal dealings," Timoshenko said during her television appearance. What is more, the "orange" leader said that in the near future, she intends to repeal the immunity and benefits of members of parliament and to reshuffle the leadership of the law-enforcement agencies and controlling agencies. At the same time, the prime minister called on "the people of Ukraine to criticize the authorities severely". Timoshenko also promised the Ukrainians that Ukraine will join the WTO, pursue a policy to join the EU, ensure the European quality of roads and accessible housing, return debts (devalued deposits in the USSR Savings Bank) and repeal the draft. The army will soon become professional and powerful. The prime minister is also sure that Ukraine is not just capable of hosting the European football championship of 2012, but "can also win it".

Meanwhile, not everyone shares the good hopes of the Timoshenko team in Ukraine. Some people predict economic and political instability in Ukraine. "We all remember how the 'orange' team ruined the economy, ruined investments and established corruption. In less than a year, we saw the level of the economy drop and prices soar. Generous promises were needed for coming to power at any price. They artificially created a political crisis, and they might resort to bloodshed," the leader of the Party of Regions and former prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich, said while announcing his plans to join the opposition. Also, according to a number of media, Timoshenko, who "depends on a whole number of authoritative businessmen", has already drawn up a detailed plan to redistribute property in Ukraine, which will clearly be of no benefit to the country. For this reason, Yanukovich does not rule out that he will return to the post of prime minister. Moreover, the former prime minister warned his rival against "persecuting her political opponents" and launching a "witch-hunt", which was the case in 2005.

However, despite Yanukovich's predictions, Timoshenko herself and her team are doing quite well for the time being. The "orange" team expects success in its foreign policy as well. For example, Dimitrij Rupel, the foreign minister of Slovenia, a country that will hold the presidency of the EU in the first half of 2008, has expressed confidence that relations between Ukraine and the European Union will simply "flourish". Rupel is even planning to visit Kiev "for the further cultivation of relations between Ukraine and the EU". At the same time, he mysteriously added that "Ukraine is a neighbour of the European Union, but Kiev and Brussels will probably become 'even closer'."

At the same time, it is clear that if Kiev is to encounter difficulties somewhere, it is the dialogue with Moscow. Most Russian politicians do not conceal their negative attitude to Timoshenko, which is actually "mutual". We do not doubt that the main subject of negotiations between Kiev and Moscow will be gas supplies from Russia to Ukraine. Timoshenko has repeatedly announced her plans to reconsider the existing scheme of this process, for example, to end the mediatory services of the RosUkrEnergo company. "There can be no mediators on the gas market. There is Naftohaz, which we will put back in a normal financial situation and in which we will stop the bankruptcy and destruction procedures, there is Gazprom, and there are two governments - of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. There is no need for mediators in this business," Timoshenko said. It seems that Moscow does not object to this decision either. But since it is not possible to work without a mediator right now, Russian experts point out that Timoshenko is planning to involve organizations close to the YTB in this lucrative business. It is not known yet how the situation will develop in this sphere in the future. As for the gas prices, problems are possible here as well. As is known, Gazprom chief Aleksey Miller and Ukrainian Minister of Fuel and Energy Yuriy Boyko agreed on 4 December that the price of gas on the Russian-Ukrainian border in 2008 will be 179.5 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres. At the same time, the rate of transit through Ukrainian territory will remain 1.7 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres for 100 kilometres. However, Timoshenko is extremely unhappy with such a state of affairs. A member of parliament from the YTB, Natalya Korolevskaya, who was planning to meet Russian investors, said in an interview with proUA that the government is already reconsidering the draft budget of 2008 to take account of the new gas price. Meanwhile, Russian experts predict that the current gas price is far from being the limit. Kiev may encounter the most interesting situation in 2009 when the price of Turkmen gas, which is supplied to Ukraine by Gazprom, will exceed 150 dollars for 1,000 cubic metres. This will certainly cause a price hike for Ukrainian consumers - approximately up to 200-220 US dollars, which will deal a serious blow to the national economy.

Thus, the main test of steadiness still lies ahead for the "orange coalition". The question is whether it will be able to stand difficult tests with credit. Yuliya Timoshenko worked as Ukrainian prime minister in February-September 2005. She lost her job because of a conflict with Viktor Yushchenko who dismissed her after accusing her of many political and economic mistakes. In fact, the reason was that the president never really trusted Timoshenko and always feared that she might oust him in the future. This is also proved by a fact that the current prime minister has not forgotten either. In the course of the talks on who will form the ruling coalition, Yushchenko suddenly spoke about the possibility of setting up a wide alliance, which would include the Party of Regions as well. Of course, Timoshenko immediately angrily reacted, saying that if the Party of Regions joins the parliamentary majority, her bloc will remain in opposition. Thus, despite optimism within the "orange" team, it is too difficult to call their coalition strong. If they manage to work smoothly for at least a year without any war of compromising dossiers and accusations, then we will be able to talk about restoration of trust. But this is not going to be an easy time as the position of the "orange team" in the Ukrainian parliament is quite untenable.

Rank-and-file Ukrainians are more tired of political squabbles. 2007 was not an easy year for the country as it remained split into two camps whose representatives cast quite a hostile look at each other sometimes. At the height of the political confrontation, some observers seriously said that the country might slide into a civil war. But now the main thing is to prevent a repeat of such a situation.