AHEAD OF THE VISIT

Turkish President Abdullah Gul arrives on an official visit to Baku in the next few days. This trip will be the first official visit by the new president of this friendly, neighbouring country, and this clearly underscores the important position occupied by Azerbaijan in Ankara's foreign policy. It is true that, formally speaking, Gul made his first voyage in his capacity as president to the so-called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus". However, due to the uncertain legal status of Northern Cyprus and the special, familial nature of Turkey - Northern Cyprus relations, that visit should be viewed more as more domestic than foreign.

Meetings planned between the leaders of the two countries and talks between the Azerbaijani and Turkish delegations in Baku will be held against the backdrop of a sharp deterioration in the regional situation, with concerns about a large-scale military operation that Turkey may launch in northern Iraq. Everybody knows that Ankara took a decision to respond to the terrorist attacks on the Turkish military by militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which have recently increased in frequency from across the border with Iraq. In addition, analysts believe, the proposed trans-border military operation is seen as Ankara's response to further steps by the USA to reinforce Kurdish autonomy in Iraq. At the end of September, the US Senate endorsed a resolution to divide Iraq into three federal areas. If this project materializes then, de jure, Kurdish autonomy and, de facto, an autonomous Kurdish state will emerge near the Turkish border. This may well result in the implementation of the scenario devised within the 1920 Treaty of Sevres, in which the victorious great powers envisaged the establishment of four occupation zones (British, Italian, French and Greek) and two state entities - Armenia and autonomous Kurdistan - on the territory of Ottoman Turkey, which was defeated in World War One. Eighty-seven years ago Ataturk did not recognize this restrictive document and consigned it to the "dump of history"

The leaders of present-day Turkey are also not going to reconcile themselves to any form of Kurdish statehood near their borders. Turkey has suffered too many sacrifices to ensure the integrity of its territory and safety of its citizens - in the past 20 years it has lost more than 37,000 people killed. In this connection, it is important to note that Turkish generals and politicians are displeased with the failure of Washington and the Iraqi government to respond to the Kurdish separatists and believe that behind the reluctance to fight them stands an aspiration to use the PKK in their Middle Eastern games, primarily as a lever to pressurise Turkey.

Speaking at a conference in May at the analytical centre of the Turkish Defence Ministry, SAREM, the commander-in-chief of the Turkish army, Yasar Buyukanit, accused Turkey's allies (hinting at the US and the EU) of giving both direct and indirect support to the PKK. Iraq is moving towards confederation, Yasar Buyukanit warned, which may lead to the northern Kurdish territory separating from the rest of the country and this "represents a threat to Turkey's national security".

As has happened many times at troubled moments in Turkish history, the Armenian issue has turned up alongside the Kurdish one. The Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives of the US Congress adopted a resolution on the so-called "Armenian genocide" which has lead to a serious deterioration in US-Turkish relations. Owing to the firm stand by the Turkish leadership on this issue, it proved possible to get a postponement of the debate on the resolution in the House of Representatives. The 24 congressmen who had earlier backed this resolution recalled their signatures and thus it became clear that the document would not be passed by the House of Representatives (today, only 212 out of the 435 members of the house are ready to vote for it). However, Turkish diplomacy should not relax - the resolution retains its validity until November 2008 and may be put to the vote at any moment "favourable" to its sponsors until the said period elapses.

It is important to note that the threat of full invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan by the Turkish army has made Washington and Baghdad, as well as European capitals and Turkey's regional neighbours, intensify diplomatic efforts to pacify Ankara. The latter, for its part, is making active military, political and diplomatic efforts, to counteract the secret Armenian-Kurdish alliance. In this context, the visit by Gul to Azerbaijan acquires special significance. Unlike the USA, Iraq and EU member countries (Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan recently sharply criticized them for giving indirect support to Kurdish terrorists), as well as Russia (Russian electronic media openly sympathize with the Kurds and describe the relentless Kurdish militants as "fighters for the freedom and independence of their motherland"), who are ready to play the "Kurdish card" behind Ankara's back, only in Azerbaijan can Turkey count upon support "without a hidden agenda" on this issue. As diplomatic sources of R+ note, this support will be expressed during the forthcoming summit of the two country leaders and will be reflected in a joint political statement that is expected to be signed in Baku, along with a number of other bilateral agreements in the economic and humanitarian spheres.