LEVON IS RISEN

"It is clear that in the case of a compromise only the strong side can achieve the maximum possible. Armenia and Karabakh are stronger than ever today, but if the conflict [with Azerbaijan - R+] is not resolved, they will be immeasurably weakened in a year or two. What we reject today, we will ask for in future but will not get, as has happened many times in our history."

(1997, Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan in his article "War or peace: time for serious thought")

Three months after the publication of this article in 1998 the Armenian authorities' Karabakh wing, led by the then prime minister and current president, Robert Kocharyan, forced Levon Ter-Petrosyan to resign. His former accomplices saw Ter-Petrosyan's statements on the need for compromise as defeatist.

But time does its work. The predictions of Armenia's first president are now beginning to come true and it looks as though Levon Ter-Petrosyan intends to use this fact as the main argument for his return to the presidency. He broke the silence 10 years after his ill-fated statement and practically started the election race, although Ter-Petrosyan himself says that he has yet to decide on whether to stand in the 2008 presidential elections. At the same time, speaking at a reception on 21 September to mark the 16th anniversary of Armenia's independence, organized by the Armenian Pan-National Movement, he did not fail to make statements that would suit someone who is seeking power. "Today we are standing at a fork in the road, facing a big choice," Ter-Petrosyan said. "We have two roads: one is to support what there is today, that is, the corrupted, criminal administration, whose relations are governed not by laws, not by the will of the people, not on the basis of political dialogue, but on the basis of the laws and norms of the criminal world. A thoroughly institutionalized Mafioso regime is operating in the country, which has reduced us to the level of similar regimes in third world countries. The existence of this regime and these authorities gives us no chance of getting out of the prevailing situation." Levon Ter-Petrosyan went on to call for the current authorities to be demolished and got rid of.

However, the Karabakh conflict remains the chief hobby horse for Ter-Petrosyan and every other presidential candidate in Armenia. Armenia's first president remembers all too well that this issue lost him his position but that it can help return him to the throne. Levon Akopovich describes settling the Karabakh conflict as the "supreme objective facing the country today". But this is not what is most important. The main thing is that Ter-Petrosyan, just as he did 10 years ago, has not looked at the world through the prism of the "Armenian hen-coop" (Lenin's famous phrase to Stepan Shaumyan), which the current Armenian authorities do. "If we are not open to the outside world, but remain closed, the country will turn into a natural economy that will end in poverty, and we will lose not only Karabakh but will have to think about retaining Armenia's territorial integrity. The greatest crime of these authorities is that resolution of the Karabakh issue has reached a state of near hopelessness" he said, stressing that Azerbaijan had strengthened its positions. "If you follow Azerbaijan's statements then you will see that their position is becoming increasingly tough. After this they will not be ready for any compromise," Ter-Petrosyan said.

As was to be expected, the remarks by Armenia's first president again created a furore. Serviced by the authorities, all the pro-government media of Armenia were full of reports about the traitorous essence of the statements. This is only natural. Robert Kocharyan is not going to admit on the eve of the presidential elections that he has reduced the country to a lamentable state, the way out of which is to restore relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The road to establishing normal neighbourly relations passes through the liberation of Azerbaijan's occupied territories. He began to remind Ter-Petrosyan of the latter's mistakes in order to hide his own. "We will have to remind him of a great deal: how many streets were lit in Yerevan and much besides. When I began work as prime minister, I inherited a budget of $300 million, while the budget for next year is $2.5 billion. You really would have to be a recluse not to see this," Robert Kocharyan said.

But the facts say the opposite. If Armenia had had normal relations with Azerbaijan, it would not have been left out of major regional projects and its budget would be far greater than the figure given by Kocharyan. What is most interesting is that Robert Sedrakovich himself recognizes this. Otherwise he would not have repeated from the highest tribunes the "anti-Armenian" remarks of his predecessor about the need for compromise on Karabakh. The reasons remain the same as those cited 10 years ago by the Armenian president who was overthrown by Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sarkisyan and Vardan Oskanyan for what they saw as his plans to capitulate. 

Serzh Sarkisyan, who made the smooth transition from Armenia's defence minister to prime minister and who is predicted to be Robert Kocharyan's successor, is today already openly disappointing his brothers from Nagornyy Karabakh. He said that Armenia's leadership still does not consider the time to be right to recognize the independence of Karabakh and, moreover, "may not have to do this at all". He says with absolute justification that it is difficult to predict the consequences of recognizing Nagornyy Karabakh's independence, stressing that Armenia has to recognize the principles of the territorial integrity of the state and Azerbaijan the right of a nation to self-determination. It turns out that Ter-Petrosyan was right and sooner or later the Armenian leadership will have to accept this. But, unlike the current authorities, the former Armenian president has suggested not rubbing their faces in the dirt and waiting for Azerbaijan to become more powerful and win respect.

It is true that Azerbaijan is ready today for compromise. But these are the compromises that official Baku was talking about 10 years ago. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov expressed them again at the end of September: "The Armenians of Nagornyy Karabakh are citizens of Azerbaijan who can be given a high status of autonomy within the territorial framework of the republic." Azerbaijan has not changed its position and is even insisting on it with more confidence than before. But, unfortunately for the Armenian public, the same cannot be said for the current positions of official Yerevan. The progress of the negotiations and the statements by Armenia's leaders quoted above show that the situation around Karabakh is not in their favour at all.

This can also be seen in the recent statements by the international mediators who visited the conflict region in September. While Baku's positions remain unchanged and President Ilham Aliyev says in all his speeches that Azerbaijan does not intend to give up an inch of its land, the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group talk about a rapprochement of the sides. This means that someone is ceding their position if they are getting closer. Judging from the disposition of forces and the statements by the parties to the conflict, if anyone has gone into reverse, it is Armenia.